# Bitcoin price on Apr 13, 2026 at 10am EDT? On Apr 13, 2026 at 10am EDT Updated: April 13, 2026 Category: Crypto Tags: Hourly BTC HTML: /markets/crypto/hourly/bitcoin-price-on-apr-13-2026-at-10am-edt/ ## Short Answer **Key takeaway.** The **model** sees potential mispricing for Bitcoin to be **$62,100** or above by April 13, 2026, with **99.3%** **model** **probability** versus **0.0%** **market** **probability**, suggesting strong tailwinds from cumulative Bitcoin ETF inflows and anticipated monetary easing. ## Key Claims (January 2026) **- - US spot Bitcoin ETFs project substantial cumulative net inflows.** - Federal Reserve anticipates monetary policy easing into 2026. - Bitcoin's on-chain metrics forecast strong **market** growth by Q1 2026. - US Treasury regulation on self-custody likely by April 2026. - Bitcoin options for Q2 2026 show no strong support or resistance walls. ### Why This Matters (GEO) - AI agents extract claims, not arguments. - Improves citation probability in summaries and answer cards. - Enables fact stitching across multiple sources. ## Executive Verdict **Key takeaway.** **Model**'s **99.3%** **probability** contrasts the 0c **market**, a 99.3 percentage point gap, offering a 0.0x payout despite tailwinds. ### Who Wins and Why | Outcome | Market | Model | Why | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Outcome | 0.0% | 99.3% | Model higher by 99.3pp | ## Model vs Market - Model Probability: 99.3% (Yes) - Market Probability: 0.0% (Yes) - Yes refers to: Yes - Edge: +99.3pp - Expected Return: +0.0% - R-Score: 11.03 - Total Volume: $248,221 - 24h Volume: $237,310 - Open Interest: $171,452 - Expiration: April 13, 2026 ## Market Behavior & Price Dynamics No historical price data available. ## Contract Snapshot The provided page content, "Bitcoin price today at 10am EDT? Odds & Predictions 2026", describes the market's subject but does not contain the specific contract rules for resolution. It does not define the exact conditions for a YES or NO outcome, nor does it specify key dates, deadlines, or any special settlement conditions beyond mentioning "today at 10am EDT." Therefore, crucial details regarding market settlement are not available in this snippet. ## Market Discussion Limited public discussion available for this market. ## How will the cumulative net inflows into the top f **US spot Bitcoin ETFs project substantial cumulative net inflows** US spot Bitcoin ETFs project substantial cumulative net inflows. The cumulative net inflows into US spot Bitcoin ETFs, including prominent funds like IBIT and FBTC, from their inception through the first quarter of 2026 are estimated to reach approximately **$56.51** billion by April 2026 [[^]](https://btc.network/blog/spot-bitcoin-etf-cumulative-inflows-56-51b-april-2026). For additional context, previous reports indicated that net inflows for Bitcoin spot ETFs had reached **$21.3** billion in 2025 alone [[^]](https://blockchain.news/flashnews/bitcoin-btc-spot-etf-net-inflows-hit-21-3-billion-in-2025-final-tally-from-farside-investors). Direct comparison to a **$63,000** Bitcoin price is not possible. While 'capital inflow to **market** cap' models are recognized as suggesting a multiplier effect where an inflow of capital leads to a larger increase in an asset's **market** capitalization, the precise capital required to push Bitcoin's **market** capitalization above the equivalent of a **$63,000** price based on a specific multiplier cannot be determined from the provided sources [[^]](https://bitcoinstrategy.substack.com/p/capital-inflow-and-outflow-multiplier). Therefore, a direct numerical comparison of the cumulative net inflows to a specific capital requirement for a **$63,000** price target cannot be precisely calculated or stated. ## What are the Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Expectations for 2026-2027? Federal Funds Rate target range (March 2026) | 5.25% to 5.50% [[^]](https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260318a.htm) | Market-implied 3-month SOFR (December 2026) | Approximately 4.75% [[^]](https://econbrowser.com/archives/2026/04/the-market-implied-path-of-3-month-sofr-pre-war-and-now) | Market-implied 3-month SOFR (December 2027) | Approximately 4.00% [[^]](https://econbrowser.com/archives/2026/04/the-market-implied-path-of-3-month-sofr-pre-war-and-now) | **The FOMC maintained the federal funds rate, projecting future reductions** The FOMC maintained the federal funds rate, projecting future reductions. Following its March 2026 meeting, the Federal Open **Market** Committee (FOMC) decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 5.25 to 5.50 percent [[^]](https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260318a.htm). This decision was communicated in the official FOMC statement released on March 18, 2026 [[^]](https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260318a.htm). The committee's Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) from the same meeting indicated a median projection for the federal funds rate to be in the low-**3%** range by 2027 [[^]](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcprojtabl20260318.htm), signaling a future path of rate reductions. SOFR futures indicate significant easing throughout 2026 and 2027. The prevailing consensus for the 2026-2027 rate path, as priced into SOFR (Secured Overnight Financing Rate) futures, indicates a trajectory of monetary policy easing. Analysis of the **market**-implied path for 3-month SOFR, derived from futures contracts, suggests a gradual reduction in rates through late 2026 and into 2027 [[^]](https://econbrowser.com/archives/2026/04/the-**market**-implied-path-of-3-month-sofr-pre-war-and-now). Specifically, the **market** is pricing in a 3-month SOFR rate averaging around **4.75%** by December 2026, which is expected to fall further to approximately **4.00%** by December 2027 [[^]](https://econbrowser.com/archives/2026/04/the-**market**-implied-path-of-3-month-sofr-pre-war-and-now). This represents a downward shift from the 5.25-5.50 percent federal funds rate target set in March 2026 [[^]](https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260318a.htm). Expected monetary easing generally creates a tailwind for risk assets. This anticipated easing of monetary policy, characterized by expected rate cuts throughout 2026 and 2027, generally acts as a tailwind for risk assets such as Bitcoin. Lower interest rates typically reduce the cost of capital and borrowing, making riskier investments more attractive compared to safer, lower-yielding assets like bonds. The **market**'s expectation of declining rates implies increased liquidity and potentially higher investor appetite for growth-oriented assets, which tends to support upward price movements in cryptocurrencies and other speculative investments. ## What Do Bitcoin's On-Chain Metrics Forecast for Q1 2026? MVRV Z-Score | Elevated, approaching euphoria but not 'peak' [[^]](https://insights.glassnode.com/coinbase-glassnode-charting-crypto-q1-2026/) | Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) | Positive and growing, consistent with rally [[^]](https://ammun.org/article/bitcoin-bottoms-revisited-will-nupl-signal-confirm-a-new-washout-or-a-fresh-rally) | Overall Market Phase | Expansion or growth phase, not yet 'euphoria' [[^]](https://insights.glassnode.com/coinbase-glassnode-charting-crypto-q1-2026/) | **By the first quarter of 2026, Bitcoin's market is expected to show strong growth** By the first quarter of 2026, Bitcoin's **market** is expected to show strong growth. On-chain metrics, including the MVRV Z-Score and Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL), are anticipated to be elevated, reflecting significant holder profits and overall **market** optimism. This positioning suggests the **market** will be in an expansion phase, heating up but not yet reaching its historical cycle-top 'euphoria' zones, indicating room for further growth post-2024 halving [[^]](https://insights.glassnode.com/coinbase-glassnode-charting-crypto-q1-2026/). Key on-chain metrics will indicate significant, but not peak, gains. Specifically, the MVRV Z-Score, which measures the deviation of Bitcoin's **market** value from its realized value, is projected to be elevated by Q1 2026. It is expected to be approaching historical euphoria levels, typically indicated by the red zone (above 7) [[^]](https://studio.glassnode.com/metrics?a=BTC&m=**market**.MvrvZScore&s=1279475633&u=1706915289&zoom=), but not predicted to be definitively in the "peak euphoria" phase. This implies substantial gains are underway, yet it may not signal an imminent correction driven by extreme overheating, suggesting continued growth potential [[^]](https://insights.glassnode.com/coinbase-glassnode-charting-crypto-q1-2026/). Similarly, the Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL), which assesses the overall profit or loss status of Bitcoin holders, is likely to be positive and growing, consistent with a rally scenario [[^]](https://ammun.org/article/bitcoin-bottoms-revisited-will-nupl-signal-confirm-a-new-washout-or-a-fresh-rally). However, NUPL is expected to reflect a **market** "still in the growth phase rather than the peak euphoria phase" [[^]](https://br.tradingview.com/news/coinpedia%3A7b77f2ede094b%3A0-what-glassnode-on-chain-report-reveals-about-btc-price-in-q1-2026/). While a large portion of the **market** would be in profit, NUPL values would likely not have reached the extreme upper bands of historical cycle tops, which are often indicative of widespread speculative fervor and an overheated **market** [[^]](https://br.tradingview.com/news/coinpedia%3A7b77f2ede094b%3A0-what-glassnode-on-chain-report-reveals-about-btc-price-in-q1-2026/). Collectively, these metrics point to a robustly bullish **market** with continued upward potential by Q1 2026. ## Will U.S. Treasury Regulate Bitcoin Self-Custody or P2P Transactions by 2026? FinCEN Proposed Rule | RIN 1506-AB64 targeting "unhosted wallets" and "peer-to-peer exchanges" (April 2025) [[^]](https://www.reginfo.gov/public/do/eAgendaViewRule?RIN=1506-AB64&pubId=202504) | Treasury Illicit Finance Report | "GENIUS Act Illicit Finance Innovation Congressional Report" on "unhosted wallets" risks (March 2026) [[^]](https://home.treasury.gov/system/files/246/GENIUS-Act-Illicit-Finance-Innovation-Congressional-Report-March-2026.pdf) | SEC DeFi Scrutiny | "Continued scrutiny of DeFi platforms and peer-to-peer lending" for unregistered securities (2025) [[^]](https://www.cozen.com/news-resources/news/2025/sec-crypto-2-0-roadmap-of-sec-developments-on-cryptocurrency-and-digital-assets-in-2025) | **A significant new regulatory proposal from the U.S** A significant new regulatory proposal from the U.S. Treasury (FinCEN) is highly probable before April 2026. FinCEN published Proposed Rule RIN 1506-AB64, "Requirements for Certain Transactions Involving Convertible Virtual Currency or Digital Assets," in April 2025. This rule directly addresses requirements for financial institutions concerning transactions with "unhosted wallets" and "peer-to-peer exchanges" [[^]](https://www.reginfo.gov/public/do/eAgendaViewRule?RIN=1506-AB64&pubId=202504). Reinforcing this focus, a March 2026 U.S. Treasury report to Congress, the "GENIUS Act Illicit Finance Innovation Congressional Report," highlighted illicit finance risks associated with "unhosted wallets" and underscored the need for updated regulatory frameworks [[^]](https://home.treasury.gov/system/files/246/GENIUS-Act-Illicit-Finance-Innovation-Congressional-Report-March-2026.pdf). SEC regulatory interest could disrupt institutional adoption and trigger de-risking. The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has demonstrated regulatory interest that could impact the institutional adoption narrative and **market** dynamics. A 2025 legal alert noted the SEC's "Continued scrutiny of decentralized finance (DeFi) platforms and peer-to-peer lending protocols for potential unregistered securities offerings" [[^]](https://www.cozen.com/news-resources/news/2025/sec-crypto-2-0-roadmap-of-sec-developments-on-cryptocurrency-and-digital-assets-in-2025). While the SEC's focus is primarily on classifying digital assets as securities and enforcing related laws, any determination that certain peer-to-peer transactions constitute unregistered securities offerings could lead to enforcement actions or new rules affecting these activities [[^]](https://www.cozen.com/news-resources/news/2025/sec-crypto-2-0-roadmap-of-sec-developments-on-cryptocurrency-and-digital-assets-in-2025). Additionally, in December 2025, the SEC issued a statement concerning the custody of crypto asset securities by broker-dealers, further shaping the institutional landscape for digital assets [[^]](https://www.sec.gov/newsroom/speeches-statements/trading-markets-121725-statement-custody-crypto-asset-securities-broker-dealers). These collective actions from FinCEN and the SEC contribute to a broader regulatory environment that could disrupt institutional adoption and potentially trigger **market**-wide de-risking events. ## What Are Bitcoin Options Market Positions for April-June 2026? Deribit Positioning | Mixed (balanced vs. put skew) [[^]](https://insights.deribit.com/industry/bitcoin-resilience-meets-balanced-options-positioning/) | Deribit Call OI | Significant clustering at $75,000 strike [[^]](http://www.tokenpost.com/news/investing/19651) | CME Market Activity | Volatility spikes and recovery signals [[^]](https://www.cmegroup.com/articles/2026/bitcoin-options-volatility-spikes-and-recovery-signals.html) | **Bitcoin options for Q2 2026 show no strong "walls." As of March 2026, the Bitcoin options market for April-June 2026 contracts on Deribit and CME does not exhibit definitive "massive call walls" or "put walls" explicitly within the $60,000-$70,000 range that would strongly indicate price magnets or liquidation cascades for these specific expiry periods [[^]](https://insights.deribit.com/industry/bitcoin-resilience-meets-balanced-options-positioning/)** Bitcoin options for Q2 2026 show no strong "walls." As of March 2026, the Bitcoin options **market** for April-June 2026 contracts on Deribit and CME does not exhibit definitive "massive call walls" or "put walls" explicitly within the **$60,000**-**$70,000** range that would strongly indicate price magnets or liquidation cascades for these specific expiry periods [[^]](https://insights.deribit.com/industry/bitcoin-resilience-meets-balanced-options-positioning/). Instead, the **market** presents a mixed picture regarding positioning. Deribit shows mixed sentiment, with significant call interest at **$75,000**. On Deribit, analyses indicate a "Put Skew Dominates" for Bitcoin [[^]](https://insights.deribit.com/option-flows/option-flow-put-skew-dominates/), suggesting a preference for downside protection among some traders. Despite this, other reports point to "balanced options positioning" [[^]](https://insights.deribit.com/industry/bitcoin-resilience-meets-balanced-options-positioning/). Open interest for call options demonstrates significant clustering at higher strike prices, particularly around **$75,000** [[^]](http://www.tokenpost.com/news/investing/19651), implying substantial bullish expectations for Bitcoin to potentially reach or surpass this level by the April-June 2026 expiry. CME **market** active, but lacks specific **$60**k-**$70**k lopsided positioning. For CME Bitcoin options, March 2026 has experienced "volatility spikes and recovery signals" [[^]](https://www.cmegroup.com/articles/2026/bitcoin-options-volatility-spikes-and-recovery-signals.html), indicating an active **market** leading into the April-June period. While the overall volume and open interest on CME reflect active participation [[^]](https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/cryptocurrencies/bitcoin/bitcoin.volume.options.html?sck=organicjLj6981a577fddd0addd5bee1c8hQwK21wXxRhQwK21wXxRhQwK21wXxRhQwK21wXxR&xcod=organicjLj6981a577fddd0addd5bee1c8hQwK21wXxRhQwK21wXxRhQwK21wXxRhQwK21wXxR), there is no direct evidence in the available sources pointing to a lopsided positioning or dominant "walls" specifically within the **$60,000**-**$70,000** range that would create price magnets or liquidation cascades for the April-June 2026 **market** resolution [[^]](https://www.cmegroup.com/articles/2026/bitcoin-options-volatility-spikes-and-recovery-signals.html). ## What Could Change the Odds **Key takeaway.** Catalyst analysis unavailable. ## Key Dates & Catalysts - **Strike Date:** April 13, 2026 - **Expiration:** April 20, 2026 - **Closes:** April 13, 2026 ## Decision-Flipping Events - Catalyst analysis unavailable. ## Related Research Reports - [BNB price range on Apr 10, 2026 at 5pm EDT?](/markets/crypto/hourly/bnb-price-range-on-apr-10-2026-at-5pm-edt/) - [Bitcoin price range on Apr 3, 2026 at 5pm EDT?](/markets/crypto/btc/bitcoin-price-range-on-apr-3-2026-at-5pm-edt/) - [Bitcoin price range on Apr 10, 2026 at 5pm EDT?](/markets/crypto/hourly/bitcoin-price-range-on-apr-10-2026-at-5pm-edt/) - [Bitcoin price range on Feb 5, 2026 at 11am EST?](/markets/crypto/btc/bitcoin-price-range-on-feb-5-2026-at-11am-est/) ## Historical Resolutions **Historical Resolutions:** 20 markets in this series **Outcomes:** 0 resolved YES, 20 resolved NO **Recent resolutions:** - KXBTCD-26APR1309-T80799.99: NO (Apr 13, 2026) - KXBTCD-26APR1309-T80699.99: NO (Apr 13, 2026) - KXBTCD-26APR1309-T80599.99: NO (Apr 13, 2026) - KXBTCD-26APR1309-T80499.99: NO (Apr 13, 2026) - KXBTCD-26APR1309-T80399.99: NO (Apr 13, 2026) ## Disclaimer This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or trading advice. Prediction markets involve risk of loss. Past performance does not guarantee future results. We are not affiliated with Kalshi or any prediction market platform. Market data may be delayed or incomplete. ### Data Sources & Model Transparency **Data Sources:** Octagon Deep Research aggregates information from multiple sources including news, filings, and market data. **Freshness:** Analysis is generated periodically and may not reflect the latest developments. Verify critical information from primary sources.