# Bitcoin price on Apr 10, 2026 at 1pm EDT?

On Apr 10, 2026 at 1pm EDT

Updated: April 10, 2026

Category: Crypto

Tags: Hourly
BTC

HTML: /markets/crypto/hourly/bitcoin-price-on-apr-10-2026-at-1pm-edt/

## Short Answer

**The model sees potential mispricing for Bitcoin's price being $61,600 or above on April 10, 2026, assigning 99.3% model probability versus 0.0% market probability.** This suggests significant upward potential based on historical halving cycles and logarithmic growth models, despite recent **market** headwinds.

## Key Claims (January 2026)

**- - Historical models project Bitcoin growth to $150,000-$250,000 by April 2026.** - Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net cumulative outflows during Q1 2026.
- Bitcoin mining profitability decreased, leading to increased miner selling Q1 2026.
- The US House passed FIT21; Senate approval unlikely before 2026.

### Why This Matters (GEO)

- AI agents extract claims, not arguments.
- Improves citation probability in summaries and answer cards.
- Enables fact stitching across multiple sources.

## Executive Verdict

**Key takeaway.** **Model** projects **99.3%** for high Bitcoin price despite headwinds, diverging from the **0.0%** **market**, indicating a +99.3 percentage point gap.

### Who Wins and Why

| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Outcome | 0.0% | 99.3% | Model higher by 99.3pp |

## Model vs Market

- Model Probability: 99.3% (Yes)
- Market Probability: 0.0% (Yes)
- Yes refers to: Yes
- Edge: +99.3pp
- Expected Return: +0.0%
- R-Score: 12.41
- Total Volume: $565,381.26
- 24h Volume: $517,743.7
- Open Interest: $229,878.04

- Expiration: April 10, 2026

## Market Behavior & Price Dynamics

No historical price data available.

## Contract Snapshot

This market resolves to Yes if the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) before 1 PM EDT on April 10, 2026, is above $72,699.99; otherwise, it resolves to No. The final value is the average of 60 BRTI prices collected in the minute before expiration and verified by CF Benchmarks. The market opens at 12:00 PM EDT and closes at 1:00 PM EDT on April 10, 2026, with projected payouts around 1:06 PM EDT.

## Market Discussion

Limited public discussion available for this market.

## How Do Market Expectations Compare to Fed's Long-Term Rate?

Q1 2026 Implied Federal Funds Rate Source | Derived from 30-Day Federal Funds futures contracts for January, February, and March 2026 [[^]](https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/stirs/30-day-federal-fund.quotes.html) |
Long-Term Dot Plot Projection Source | Median projection from Federal Reserve members in late 2025's Summary of Economic Projections [[^]](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcprojtabl20251210.htm) |
Implied Monthly Rate Calculation | Calculated by subtracting futures price from 100 [[^]](https://www.investing.com/central-banks/fed-rate-monitor) |

**The Q1 2026 implied Federal Funds Rate uses futures contracts**

The Q1 2026 implied Federal Funds Rate uses futures contracts. This rate is determined by analyzing 30-Day Federal Funds futures contracts for January, February, and March 2026 [[^]](https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/stirs/30-day-federal-fund.quotes.html). Research analysts consult the prices of specific contracts, such as Jan '26 (ZQF26) [[^]](https://www.barchart.com/futures/quotes/ZQF26), Feb '26 (ZQG26) [[^]](https://www.barchart.com/futures/quotes/ZQG26), and Mar '26 (ZQH26) [[^]](https://www.barchart.com/futures/quotes/ZQH26). The implied federal funds rate for each month is calculated by subtracting the futures price from 100; for example, a price of 95.00 implies a **5.00%** rate [[^]](https://www.investing.com/central-banks/fed-rate-monitor). The average of these three implied monthly rates then represents the **market**'s collective expectation for the Federal Funds Rate in Q1 2026 [[^]](https://www.investing.com/central-banks/fed-rate-monitor).

Fed's 'dot plot' projections indicate long-term neutral rates. For the long-term 'dot plot' projections, Federal Reserve members' outlook is published in the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) as part of the FOMC Projections materials, with a specific expected publication date of December 10, 2025 [[^]](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcprojtabl20251210.htm). These documents detail individual FOMC participants' assessments of the appropriate level of the federal funds rate for the 'longer run' [[^]](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcprojtabl20251210.htm). The median of these longer-run projections, also tracked by sources like FRED [[^]](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FEDTARMD), represents the committee's consensus on the neutral policy rate, which is defined as a rate that is neither expansionary nor contractionary once temporary disturbances have subsided [[^]](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcprojtabl20251210.htm).

Comparing these rates reveals **market** alignment with Fed policy. A comparison between the **market**-implied Q1 2026 rate and the FOMC's longer-run projection helps to reveal whether **market** participants anticipate the policy rate to be above, below, or aligned with the Fed's estimated neutral rate by early 2026. If the implied rate from futures is notably higher than the longer-run dot plot median, it suggests that the **market** expects monetary policy to remain tighter than the Federal Reserve's long-term neutral stance. Conversely, alignment or a lower implied rate would indicate **market** convergence towards the Federal Reserve's long-term outlook.

## What Price Does Bitcoin Need to Reach by 2026?

Projected Price Range | $150,000 - $250,000 by April 2026 [[^]](https://www.ainvest.com/news/bitcoin-2026-path-flow-analysis-logarithmic-projections-2604/) |
Primary Growth Model | Logarithmic growth curve, power law models [[^]](https://stephenperrenod.substack.com/p/bitcoins-power-laws) |
Historical Growth Trend | Diminishing returns over cycles [[^]](https://stephenperrenod.substack.com/p/bitcoins-power-laws) |

**Bitcoin needs to reach a price between $150,000 and $250,000 by April 2026 to maintain its historical logarithmic growth curve**

Bitcoin needs to reach a price between **$150,000** and **$250,000** by April 2026 to maintain its historical logarithmic growth curve. This projection is derived from analyzing historical data from the 2016 and 2020 halving cycles, utilizing power law models and logarithmic channels [[^]](https://stephenperrenod.substack.com/p/bitcoins-power-laws). These analytical frameworks reflect Bitcoin's characteristic behavior of consolidating gains before surging to new all-time highs following a halving event [[^]](https://stephenperrenod.substack.com/p/bitcoins-power-laws).

Despite its historical exponential growth, the rate of return for Bitcoin tends to diminish across successive **market** cycles, a trend incorporated into these forecasting models [[^]](https://stephenperrenod.substack.com/p/bitcoins-power-laws). For Bitcoin to remain on its established growth trajectory by April 2026, deep into the post-2024 halving bull **market**, forecasts broadly align within the **$150,000** to **$250,000** range [[^]](https://www.ainvest.com/news/bitcoin-2026-path-flow-analysis-logarithmic-projections-2604/). Specific models suggest a central tendency for this target around **$180,000** to **$220,000,** while others indicate the upper potential could extend towards **$250,000** or even higher during the peak of an extended bull run [[^]](https://www.ainvest.com/news/bitcoin-2026-path-flow-analysis-logarithmic-projections-2604/). Sustained growth within logarithmic channels remains a defining characteristic of Bitcoin's price movements after a halving [[^]](https://stephenperrenod.substack.com/p/bitcoins-three-year-outlook-scale).

## How Did Spot Bitcoin ETFs Perform and Were They Integrated by Wirehouses by Q1 2026?

US Spot Bitcoin ETF Net Outflow | $500 million net cumulative outflow by end of Q1 2026 [[^]](https://www.mexc.com/news/999024) |
Morgan Stanley Integration Status | Integrated a Digital Assets ETF Platform for Financial Advisors [[^]](https://www.morganstanley.com/im/en-us/financial-advisor/capabilities/digital-assets.html) |
Merrill Lynch Integration Status | Not provided in available sources by Q1 2026 [[^]](https://www.mexc.com/news/999024) |

**US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net cumulative outflows in Q1 2026**

US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net cumulative outflows in Q1 2026. By the end of Q1 2026, US-based spot Bitcoin ETFs collectively experienced a net cumulative outflow of **$500** million [[^]](https://www.mexc.com/news/999024). This quarterly trend occurred despite March recording **$1.32** billion in inflows, ultimately resulting in overall net outflows for the period [[^]](https://coinmarketcap.com/academy/article/bitcoin-etfs-log-dollar132b-march-inflows-but-end-q1-with-net-outflows).

Morgan Stanley demonstrates significant steps in integrating Bitcoin ETFs. Regarding the integration of these products by major wirehouses, Morgan Stanley has established a "Digital Assets ETF Platform for Financial Advisors," indicating their adoption of such offerings [[^]](https://www.morganstanley.com/im/en-us/financial-advisor/capabilities/digital-assets.html). Furthermore, Morgan Stanley has been noted for launching its own Bitcoin ETF [[^]](https://www.wealthmanagement.com/etfs/morgan-stanley-debuts-bitcoin-etf-as-price-slump-rattles-holders). However, specific information regarding whether Merrill Lynch will have fully integrated these products onto their advisory platforms by the end of Q1 2026 is not available in the provided sources.

## How are Bitcoin mining dynamics changing post-halving in 2026?

Network Hash Rate Trend | First quarterly decline in six years (Q1 2026) [[^]](https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/03/30/bitcoin-hashrate-posts-first-quarter-drop-for-first-time-in-6-years-as-miners-pivot-to-ai) |
Riot Platforms Q1 2026 BTC Sales | 3,778 BTC [[^]](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/crypto/articles/riot-platforms-follows-mara-exit-062556360.html) |
Mining Rig Profitability | Key rigs hitting estimated breakeven price [[^]](https://cryptorank.io/news/feed/56d31-bitcoin-mining-rigs-break-even-price) |

**Bitcoin's hash rate declined, impacting mining profitability post-halving**

Bitcoin's hash rate declined, impacting mining profitability post-halving. The network experienced its first quarterly decline in six years during Q1 2026, a shift partly attributed to some miners reallocating resources towards artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure [[^]](https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/03/30/bitcoin-hashrate-posts-first-quarter-drop-for-first-time-in-6-years-as-miners-pivot-to-ai). Following the 2024 halving, profitability pressures significantly increased, leading some key mining rigs to reach their estimated breakeven price amidst rising operational and **market** challenges [[^]](https://cryptorank.io/news/feed/56d31-bitcoin-mining-rigs-break-even-price). The landscape for mining profitability in 2026, two years after the halving, remains a critical factor for the industry [[^]](https://bt-miners.com/bitcoin-mining-profitability-in-2026-best-asic-miners-two-years-after-the-halving/).

Major publicly traded miners are now strategically selling Bitcoin holdings. In response to these evolving **market** dynamics, companies like Marathon Digital (MARA) and Riot Platforms (RIOT) have adjusted their treasury strategies. Marathon Digital updated its 2026 policy to include ongoing strategic Bitcoin sales, marking a departure from consistent accumulation [[^]](https://crypto2community.com/crypto-news/mara-holdings-updates-2026-treasury-policy-to-allow-strategic-bitcoin-sales/). Similarly, Riot Platforms sold 3,778 BTC in Q1 2026 [[^]](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/crypto/articles/riot-platforms-follows-mara-exit-062556360.html). This indicates a broader trend among large-scale miners to monetize portions of their Bitcoin holdings, likely to manage costs, fund infrastructure investments, or diversify capital, rather than solely holding reserves [[^]](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/crypto/articles/riot-platforms-follows-mara-exit-062556360.html).

## What US Digital Asset Regulatory Events Occurred Before 2026?

FIT21 Act House Passage | May 22, 2024 [[^]](https://www.mayerbrown.com/en/insights/publications/2024/06/house-passes-digital-asset-market-structure-legislation-financial-innovation-and-technology-for-the-21st-century-act-fit21) |
FIT21 Act Senate Outlook | Unlikely to pass before 2026 [[^]](https://www.bakerlaw.com/insights/digital-assets-legislation-house-passage-of-fit21-unlikely-to-carry-momentum-in-senate/) |
Spot Ethereum ETF Approval | May 23, 2024 [[^]](https://cryptovot.com/spot-ethereum-etf-approval-sec-triggers-market-shift) |

**The House passed FIT21, but Senate approval before 2026 is unlikely**

The House passed FIT21, but Senate approval before 2026 is unlikely. The Financial Innovation and Technology for the 21st Century Act (FIT21) successfully passed the House of Representatives on May 22, 2024, garnering substantial bipartisan support, including 71 Democrats [[^]](https://www.mayerbrown.com/en/insights/publications/2024/06/house-passes-digital-asset-**market**-structure-legislation-financial-innovation-and-technology-for-the-21st-century-act-fit21). This legislation aims to establish a clear regulatory framework for digital assets, precisely delineating jurisdictional responsibilities between the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) [[^]](https://www.mayerbrown.com/en/insights/publications/2024/06/house-passes-digital-asset-**market**-structure-legislation-financial-innovation-and-technology-for-the-21st-century-act-fit21). Despite its passage in the House, the FIT21 Act is not broadly anticipated to advance in the Senate and is considered improbable to pass before 2026, primarily due to the impending election cycle and a crowded legislative agenda [[^]](https://www.bakerlaw.com/insights/digital-assets-legislation-house-passage-of-fit21-unlikely-to-carry-momentum-in-senate/).

SEC approval of spot Ethereum ETFs sets a significant **market** precedent. The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approved spot Ethereum Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) on May 23, 2024, building on its prior approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs [[^]](https://cryptovot.com/spot-ethereum-etf-approval-sec-triggers-**market**-shift). This decision establishes a crucial **market** precedent, indicating a greater integration of digital assets into conventional financial markets [[^]](https://cryptovot.com/spot-ethereum-etf-approval-sec-triggers-**market**-shift). The listing and trading of these Ethereum ETFs are expected to continue into 2026, with associated filings projecting activity into early 2026 [[^]](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2020455/000119312526041199/eth-20260202.htm). This regulatory endorsement reflects an increasing acceptance of cryptocurrency investment products, potentially stimulating further digital asset innovation and **market** growth before April 2026 [[^]](https://cryptovot.com/spot-ethereum-etf-approval-sec-triggers-**market**-shift).

## What Could Change the Odds

**Key takeaway.** Catalyst analysis unavailable.

## Key Dates & Catalysts

- **Strike Date:** April 10, 2026
- **Expiration:** April 17, 2026
- **Closes:** April 10, 2026

## Decision-Flipping Events

- Catalyst analysis unavailable.

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## Historical Resolutions

**Historical Resolutions:** 20 markets in this series

**Outcomes:** 0 resolved YES, 20 resolved NO

**Recent resolutions:**

- KXBTCD-26APR1012-T80299.99: NO (Apr 10, 2026)
- KXBTCD-26APR1012-T80199.99: NO (Apr 10, 2026)
- KXBTCD-26APR1012-T80099.99: NO (Apr 10, 2026)
- KXBTCD-26APR1012-T79999.99: NO (Apr 10, 2026)
- KXBTCD-26APR1012-T79899.99: NO (Apr 10, 2026)

## Disclaimer

This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or trading advice.
Prediction markets involve risk of loss. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
We are not affiliated with Kalshi or any prediction market platform. Market data may be delayed or incomplete.

### Data Sources & Model Transparency

**Data Sources:** Octagon Deep Research aggregates information from multiple sources including news, filings, and market data.

**Freshness:** Analysis is generated periodically and may not reflect the latest developments. Verify critical information from primary sources.