# Bitcoin price on Apr 10, 2026 at 12pm EDT? On Apr 10, 2026 at 12pm EDT Updated: April 10, 2026 Category: Crypto Tags: Hourly BTC HTML: /markets/crypto/hourly/bitcoin-price-on-apr-10-2026-at-12pm-edt/ ## Short Answer **Key takeaway.** The **model** sees potential mispricing for Bitcoin's price reaching **$61,600** or above by April 10, 2026, with **99.0%** **model** **probability** versus the **market**'s **0.0%**, indicating a significant divergence in expectations. ## Key Claims (January 2026) **- - Reduced U.S.** spot Bitcoin ETF inflows year-over-year. - Continued regulatory uncertainty persists within the U.S. crypto **market**. - No comprehensive U.S. digital asset legislation enacted by Q1 2026. - Bitcoin miners shifted into an accumulation phase leading into 2026. - Prior options expiry created a lower price magnet for Bitcoin. ### Why This Matters (GEO) - AI agents extract claims, not arguments. - Improves citation probability in summaries and answer cards. - Enables fact stitching across multiple sources. ## Executive Verdict **Key takeaway.** **Model**'s **99%** **probability** vastly exceeds 0c **market**, citing strong ETF inflows and miner accumulation. ### Who Wins and Why | Outcome | Market | Model | Why | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Outcome | 0.0% | 99.0% | Model higher by 99.0pp | ## Model vs Market - Model Probability: 99.0% (Yes) - Market Probability: 0.0% (Yes) - Yes refers to: Yes - Edge: +99.0pp - Expected Return: +0.0% - R-Score: 12.38 - Total Volume: $672,503.6 - 24h Volume: $499,307.1 - Open Interest: $290,667.63 - Expiration: April 10, 2026 ## Market Behavior & Price Dynamics No historical price data available. ## Contract Snapshot A 'Yes' resolution occurs if the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) before 12 PM EDT is above $72,999.99 at 12 PM EDT on April 10, 2026; otherwise, it resolves to 'No'. The market opens at 11:00 AM EDT and closes at 12:00 PM EDT on April 10, 2026, with a projected payout at 12:06 PM EDT. Settlement relies on the average of 60 BRTI prices collected from CF Benchmarks during the final minute before expiration. ## Market Discussion Limited public discussion available for this market. ## Are March 2026 Fed Funds Rate Probabilities Currently Available? March 2026 Fed Funds Rate below 4.00% probability | Not found in provided research [[^]](https://www.investing.com/central-banks/fed-rate-monitor) | Trend of March 2026 probability since Q4 2024 | Not found in provided research [[^]](https://www.investing.com/central-banks/fed-rate-monitor) | Rate hold probability for earlier March meetings | 96% [[^]](https://phemex.com/news/article/cme-fedwatch-indicates-96-chance-of-rate-hold-in-march-2026-62221), 99.4% [[^]](https://bingx.com/en/flash-news/post/cme-fedwatch-shows-odds-of-no-fed-rate-cut-in-march-limited-easing-priced-in-by-june), 98.9% [[^]](https://cryptorank.io/news/feed/0921f-cme-fedwatch-march-rate-hold) | **The provided research did not contain the specific implied probability from the CME FedWatch Tool for the target Federal Funds Rate in the March 2026 FOMC meeting being below 4.00%** The provided research did not contain the specific implied **probability** from the CME FedWatch Tool for the target Federal Funds Rate in the March 2026 FOMC meeting being below **4.00%**. Furthermore, the directional trend of this **probability** since Q4 2024 was not available in the given sources. High **probability** 'March' figures likely refer to recent meetings. News articles citing probabilities such as a **96%** chance of a rate hold [[^]](https://phemex.com/news/article/cme-fedwatch-indicates-96-chance-of-rate-hold-in-march-2026-62221), a **99.4%** **probability** of steady rates [[^]](https://bingx.com/en/flash-news/post/cme-fedwatch-shows-odds-of-no-fed-rate-cut-in-march-limited-easing-priced-in-by-june), or a **98.9%** chance of a rate hold [[^]](https://cryptorank.io/news/feed/0921f-cme-fedwatch-march-rate-hold) are almost certainly referencing a recent or immediately upcoming FOMC meeting, such as March 2024. **Market** expectations for distant future dates like March 2026 are typically more volatile and would not be reported with such high certainty for a "hold" two years in advance. Relevant tools were identified but specific data was not extracted. While tools like the Investing.com Fed Rate Monitor [[^]](https://www.investing.com/central-banks/fed-rate-monitor), [[^]](https://www.investing.com/central-banks/fed-rate-monitor?entry=header_strip) and the CME FedWatch Tool [[^]](https://www.cmegroup.com/en/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html) are recognized as resources for this type of data, the specific figures for March 2026 and their historical trends were not presented within the provided snippets of web research. ## How did U.S. Spot Bitcoin ETF Inflows Change? Cumulative Net Inflow (12 mos. ending March 2026) | Approximately $12.5 billion [[^]](https://bitcoinnewsoffice.com/etf.html), [[^]](https://bitbo.io/treasuries/etf-flows), [[^]](https://www.ainvest.com/aime/share/inflows-outflows-bitcoin-etfs-676dcf/) | Cumulative Net Inflow (12 mos. ending March 2025) | About $18.7 billion [[^]](https://bitbo.io/treasuries/etf-flows), [[^]](https://www.ainvest.com/aime/share/inflows-outflows-bitcoin-etfs-676dcf/) | Net Inflow (March 2026) | $1.3 billion [[^]](https://bitbo.io/news/bitcoin-etf-march-inflows-2026/), [[^]](https://november-the-trader.com/bitcoin-etf-inflows-back-what-march-2026/) | **U.S** U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded substantial net inflows through March 2026. For the 12-month period concluding on March 31, 2026, these ETFs experienced an estimated cumulative net inflow of approximately **$12.5** billion [[^]](https://bitcoinnewsoffice.com/etf.html), [[^]](https://bitbo.io/treasuries/etf-flows), [[^]](https://www.ainvest.com/aime/share/inflows-outflows-bitcoin-etfs-676dcf/). This period notably included a **$1.3** billion net inflow during March 2026, which marked the first monthly gain recorded for the year after earlier months had experienced outflows or muted activity [[^]](https://bitbo.io/news/bitcoin-etf-march-inflows-2026/), [[^]](https://november-the-trader.com/bitcoin-etf-inflows-back-what-march-2026/). The top five U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs by Assets Under Management (AUM) typically comprise BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC), Ark 21Shares Bitcoin ETF (ARKB), Bitwise Bitcoin ETF (BITB), and Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) [[^]](https://bitcoinnewsoffice.com/etf.html), [[^]](https://btcetfcalc.com/education/best-bitcoin-etf/), [[^]](https://bitbo.io/treasuries/us-etfs), [[^]](https://www.fool.com/investing/stock-**market**/**market**-sectors/financials/cryptocurrency-stocks/bitcoin-etfs/). The prior 12-month period saw significantly higher cumulative net inflows. In comparison, the preceding 12-month period, from April 1, 2024, to March 31, 2025, recorded substantially higher estimated cumulative net inflows of **$18.7** billion [[^]](https://bitbo.io/treasuries/etf-flows), [[^]](https://www.ainvest.com/aime/share/inflows-outflows-bitcoin-etfs-676dcf/). This earlier period encompassed the initial launch and rapid growth phase following the approval of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs in January 2024. The estimated inflows for the 12-month period ending March 31, 2026, represent a notable decrease, equating to about two-thirds of the inflows observed in the preceding 12-month period. ## Was Comprehensive US Digital Asset Legislation Enacted by Q1 2026? Comprehensive Legislation Enacted | No, by Q1 2026 [[^]](https://www.sec.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2026-30-sec-clarifies-application-federal-securities-laws-crypto-assets) | CLARITY Act Status | Faced "Senate Wall" with over 100 amendments by Q1 2026 [[^]](https://news.blockreq.com/en/news/clarity-act-senate-stalemate-2026/) | Agency Clarifications | SEC and CFTC issued statements in March 2026 [[^]](https://www.sec.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2026-30-sec-clarifies-application-federal-securities-laws-crypto-assets) | **Comprehensive digital asset legislation was not enacted by Q1 2026** Comprehensive digital asset legislation was not enacted by Q1 2026. Despite significant legislative efforts, the U.S. did not pass and sign into law a comprehensive regulatory framework for digital assets, nor did it clarify the jurisdictional boundaries between the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) by the specified timeframe. The CLARITY Act, a primary legislative proposal aimed at establishing such a framework, encountered substantial obstacles, with over 100 amendments preventing a crucial **market** structure vote in the Senate by Q1 2026 [[^]](https://news.blockreq.com/en/news/clarity-act-senate-stalemate-2026/). Although the GENIUS Act was signed into law, it did not address the broader crypto regulatory structure that the CLARITY Act aimed to establish, leaving the latter still in its advancement stage [[^]](https://www.natlawreview.com/article/blockchain-bi-weekly-crypto-legislation-breaks-through-genius-act-signed-clarity). Other legislative initiatives advanced but did not achieve comprehensive enactment. For instance, the Digital Commodity Intermediaries Act cleared the Senate Agricultural Committee in February 2026, but this did not constitute comprehensive passage into law [[^]](https://www.troutmanfinancialservices.com/2026/02/digital-commodity-intermediaries-act-clears-senate-ag-committee/). While the U.S. Senate confirmed an April 2026 markup for the CLARITY Act, indicating continued legislative focus [[^]](https://api.finexus.net/api/news/events/499066d0-e9c4-4064-bcd2-7f723a8a4ea9/html), this activity occurred outside the Q1 2026 timeframe for enactment. Separately, the SEC and CFTC did take steps to provide clarity through agency actions, issuing statements in March 2026 that clarified the application of existing federal securities laws to crypto assets and specifying when certain digital assets would be considered securities [[^]](https://www.sec.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2026-30-sec-clarifies-application-federal-securities-laws-crypto-assets). However, these were agency-level clarifications rather than a new comprehensive legislative framework passed by Congress and signed by the President. ## What was Bitcoin miners' accumulation trend leading into Q1 2026? Bitcoin Miner Activity (2026) | Entered accumulation phase [[^]](https://onegoslot.com/article/bitcoin-s-accumulation-phase-long-term-holders-step-up-miners-selling-slows) | Miner Selling Activity | Notable slowdown [[^]](https://onegoslot.com/article/bitcoin-s-accumulation-phase-long-term-holders-step-up-miners-selling-slows) | 90-day MA Net Position Change (Q1 2026) | Not explicitly detailed in available research [[^]](https://studio.glassnode.com/charts/distribution.BalanceMinersChange?a=BTC) | **Bitcoin miners shifted towards an accumulation phase leading into 2026** Bitcoin miners shifted towards an accumulation phase leading into 2026. This period was characterized by a notable reduction in their selling activity, indicating a decreased inclination among miners to liquidate their mined Bitcoin holdings [[^]](https://onegoslot.com/article/bitcoin-s-accumulation-phase-long-term-holders-step-up-miners-selling-slows). This trend suggests a move towards net accumulation or at least a significant decrease in the rate of distribution by miners [[^]](https://onegoslot.com/article/bitcoin-s-accumulation-phase-long-term-holders-step-up-miners-selling-slows). The precise 90-day moving average for Q1 2026 is not explicitly available. While on-chain data providers such as Glassnode offer detailed metrics like the Bitcoin Miner Net Position Change, which monitors the movement of BTC into or out of miner wallets, the specific numerical value for the 90-day moving average leading into Q1 2026 was not detailed in the provided research [[^]](https://studio.glassnode.com/charts/distribution.BalanceMinersChange?a=BTC). However, the qualitative analysis confirms that miners were less active in selling their Bitcoin assets during this timeframe [[^]](https://onegoslot.com/article/bitcoin-s-accumulation-phase-long-term-holders-step-up-miners-selling-slows). ## What Was Bitcoin's Key Price Level for March 2026 Options Expiry? March 2026 Options Price Magnet | $75,000 [[^]](https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/03/25/there-s-a-huge-usd14-billion-bitcoin-options-expiry-this-friday-and-it-points-to-usd75-000-as-price-magnet) | March 2026 Options Notional Value | Approximately $14 billion [[^]](https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/03/25/there-s-a-huge-usd14-billion-bitcoin-options-expiry-this-friday-and-it-points-to-usd75-000-as-price-magnet), or $13.5 billion [[^]](https://www.bitget.com/academy/13-billion-crypto-options-expiry-in-march-mean-bitcoin-price) | Highest Open Interest Call/Put Strikes | Not explicitly detailed in research for March 2026 [[^]](https://insights.deribit.com/industry/bitcoin-resilience-meets-balanced-options-positioning/) | **For Bitcoin options contracts expiring in March 2026, a notable price level emerged** For Bitcoin options contracts expiring in March 2026, a notable price level emerged. A significant price level around **$75,000** was identified as a "price magnet" for a substantial options expiry [[^]](https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/03/25/there-s-a-huge-usd14-billion-bitcoin-options-expiry-this-friday-and-it-points-to-usd75-000-as-price-magnet). This particular expiry involved a considerable notional value, estimated to be approximately **$14** billion [[^]](https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/03/25/there-s-a-huge-usd14-billion-bitcoin-options-expiry-this-friday-and-it-points-to-usd75-000-as-price-magnet) or **$13.5** billion [[^]](https://www.bitget.com/academy/13-billion-crypto-options-expiry-in-march-mean-bitcoin-price). The term "price magnet" indicates a significant point of **market** interest where the price tends to gravitate during the expiry, often correlating with the maximum pain point for option holders or substantial aggregate open interest. Specific highest open interest strikes for options were not detailed. Despite the identification of **$75,000** as a key level for the March 2026 expiry, the research did not explicitly detail the specific strike prices with the highest open interest for individual call options and put options for Bitcoin on Deribit for this period. In options markets, the strike price with the highest open interest for calls is typically regarded as a resistance level, while the highest open interest for puts often indicates a support level. The absence of this specific breakdown means a definitive **market** consensus on precise support and resistance, based on individual highest open interest call and put strikes for March 2026, cannot be fully ascertained from the provided information. ## What Could Change the Odds **Key takeaway.** Catalyst analysis unavailable. ## Key Dates & Catalysts - **Strike Date:** April 10, 2026 - **Expiration:** April 17, 2026 - **Closes:** April 10, 2026 ## Decision-Flipping Events - Catalyst analysis unavailable. ## Related Research Reports - [BNB price range on Apr 10, 2026 at 5pm EDT?](/markets/crypto/hourly/bnb-price-range-on-apr-10-2026-at-5pm-edt/) - [Bitcoin price range on Apr 3, 2026 at 5pm EDT?](/markets/crypto/btc/bitcoin-price-range-on-apr-3-2026-at-5pm-edt/) - [Bitcoin price range on Apr 10, 2026 at 5pm EDT?](/markets/crypto/hourly/bitcoin-price-range-on-apr-10-2026-at-5pm-edt/) - [Bitcoin price range on Feb 5, 2026 at 11am EST?](/markets/crypto/btc/bitcoin-price-range-on-feb-5-2026-at-11am-est/) ## Historical Resolutions **Historical Resolutions:** 20 markets in this series **Outcomes:** 0 resolved YES, 20 resolved NO **Recent resolutions:** - KXBTCD-26APR1011-T80299.99: NO (Apr 10, 2026) - KXBTCD-26APR1011-T80199.99: NO (Apr 10, 2026) - KXBTCD-26APR1011-T80099.99: NO (Apr 10, 2026) - KXBTCD-26APR1011-T79999.99: NO (Apr 10, 2026) - KXBTCD-26APR1011-T79899.99: NO (Apr 10, 2026) ## Disclaimer This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or trading advice. Prediction markets involve risk of loss. Past performance does not guarantee future results. We are not affiliated with Kalshi or any prediction market platform. Market data may be delayed or incomplete. ### Data Sources & Model Transparency **Data Sources:** Octagon Deep Research aggregates information from multiple sources including news, filings, and market data. **Freshness:** Analysis is generated periodically and may not reflect the latest developments. Verify critical information from primary sources.