# Palantir total customers in Q1 2026 in Q1 2026 Updated: April 29, 2026 Category: Companies Tags: KPIs HTML: /markets/companies/kpis/palantir-total-customers-in-q1-2026/ ## Short Answer **Key takeaway.** Both the **model** and the **market** expect Palantir's total customers in Q1 2026 to be Above 960, with no compelling evidence of mispricing. ## Key Claims (January 2026) **- - Palantir requires 72 new customers, less than recent quarterly additions.** - Strong AIP bootcamp conversion and increasing volume drive customer growth. - Expanding channel partnerships significantly contribute to commercial customer growth. - Potential new government contracts, including NHS FDP, could add customers. ### Why This Matters (GEO) - AI agents extract claims, not arguments. - Improves citation probability in summaries and answer cards. - Enables fact stitching across multiple sources. ## Executive Verdict **Key takeaway.** At 93c, the **market** may undervalue Palantir's customer growth potential, with a **95.8%** **model** **probability** and 1.1x payout multiple. ### Who Wins and Why | Outcome | Market | Model | Why | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Above 1080 | 6.0% | 10.3% | Strong bootcamp conversion rates and new partnerships could push Palantir above 1080 customers. | | above 1040 | 13.0% | 20.6% | Palantir needs 72 new customers, fewer than recent additions, aided by strong bootcamp conversions. | | above 1100 | 5.0% | 8.7% | Increasing bootcamp volume, potential government contracts, and partnerships could help Palantir exceed 1100 customers. | ## Model vs Market | Outcome | Market Probability | Octagon Model Probability | | --- | --- | --- | | Above 1080 | 6.0% | 10.3% | | above 1040 | 13.0% | 20.6% | | above 1100 | 5.0% | 8.7% | | above 1060 | 11.0% | 17.8% | | Above 1020 | 49.0% | 58.9% | | Above 1000 | 83.0% | 87.6% | | Above 980 | 94.0% | 95.0% | | Above 960 | 93.0% | 95.8% | | Above 1120 | 5.0% | 8.0% | - Expiration: June 3, 2026 ## Market Behavior & Price Dynamics Based on the provided chart data, the price action for this market has been entirely static. The probability has remained unchanged at 93.0% since the market's inception across all 37 data points. Consequently, there have been no price trends, spikes, or drops to analyze, and the overall price movement is perfectly sideways. The 93.0% mark is the only price at which the contract has been valued, effectively serving as both the absolute support and resistance level for the entirety of its history. The trading volume provides further insight into the market's dynamics. A total of only 85 contracts have been traded, which indicates very low liquidity and participation. This minimal volume suggests that the initial price of 93.0% has not been significantly challenged or reinforced by new trading activity. While the price implies a high degree of confidence in a YES resolution, the low volume indicates that this conviction is not being actively tested by market participants. The sentiment appears to be one of a strong, but dormant, consensus. ## Significant Price Movements #### 📈 April 20, 2026: 8.0pp spike Price increased from 38.0% to 46.0% **Outcome:** Above 1020 **What happened:** No supporting research available for this anomaly. ## Contract Snapshot The market resolves to YES if Palantir Technologies Inc. reports above 1020 total customers in Q1 2026; otherwise, it resolves to NO. The outcome is verified by Fiscal.ai. The market opens on April 6, 2026, at 2:55 pm EDT, closing either after the outcome occurs or by June 3, 2026, at 4:00 pm EDT, with early closure if the event happens and payout 30 minutes after closing. ## Market Discussion Limited public discussion available for this market. ## Market Data | Contract | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | Last Price | Volume | Open Interest | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Above 1000 | 77% | 84% | 83% | $3,586.68 | $2,397.89 | | Above 1020 | 49% | 52% | 49% | $3,888.81 | $1,960.84 | | above 1040 | 6% | 10% | 13% | $15,244.62 | $699.21 | | above 1060 | 5% | 11% | 11% | $8,599 | $3,101 | | Above 1080 | 5% | 6% | 6% | $15,616 | $1,661 | | above 1100 | 2% | 7% | 5% | $12,896 | $1,500 | | Above 1120 | 0% | 3% | 5% | $58 | $58 | | Above 960 | 94% | 97% | 93% | $247 | $247 | | Above 980 | 89% | 93% | 94% | $2,651.47 | $1,964 | ## What is the Conversion Rate and Volume of Palantir's AIP Bootcamps? AIP Bootcamp Conversion Rate | 75-85% within two quarters (Palantir Q4 2025 earnings call transcript [[^]](https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2026/02/02/palantir-pltr-q4-2025-earnings-call-transcript/?referring_guid=0e5fda4c-561a-42f2-964a-8334dbac96cd)) | Q4 2024 Bootcamps Completed | 110 (Palantir Q4 2024 [[^]](https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2026/02/02/palantir-pltr-q4-2025-earnings-call-transcript/?referring_guid=0e5fda4c-561a-42f2-964a-8334dbac96cd)) | 2025 Projected Avg. Quarterly Bootcamps | 170-190 (Palantir [[^]](https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2026/02/02/palantir-pltr-q4-2025-earnings-call-transcript/?referring_guid=0e5fda4c-561a-42f2-964a-8334dbac96cd)) | **Palantir's AIP Bootcamps show high conversion to paying commercial customers** Palantir's AIP Bootcamps show high conversion to paying commercial customers. Enterprises participating in these bootcamps demonstrate a robust conversion rate, with **market** analysts estimating that approximately 70-**80%** [[^]](https://www.ainvest.com/news/palantir-bootcamp-driven-flywheel-ai-operating-system-dominance-2026-2601/) and over **75%** [[^]](https://markets.financialcontent.com/wral/article/marketminute-2026-3-6-palantir-shares-surge-as-aip-bootcamp-strategy-cementing-dominance-in-enterprise-ai) of participants transition into paying customers within six months. Palantir's Q4 2025 earnings call transcript more specifically reveals an estimated **75%** to **85%** of enterprise bootcamp participants move into full commercial engagements within two quarters [[^]](https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2026/02/02/palantir-pltr-q4-2025-earnings-call-transcript/?referring_guid=0e5fda4c-561a-42f2-964a-8334dbac96cd). The intensive, hands-on nature of these programs is primarily credited for this consistently high conversion rate [[^]](https://markets.financialcontent.com/wral/article/marketminute-2026-3-6-palantir-shares-surge-as-aip-bootcamp-strategy-cementing-dominance-in-enterprise-ai). Palantir projects significant quarterly growth in bootcamp volume through 2025. The company has aggressive expansion plans for its AIP Bootcamps, having successfully completed 110 bootcamps in Q4 2024, exceeding its internal targets [[^]](https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2026/02/02/palantir-pltr-q4-2025-earnings-call-transcript/?referring_guid=0e5fda4c-561a-42f2-964a-8334dbac96cd). For 2025, Palantir projects running an average of 170-190 bootcamps per quarter, with a significant ramp-up anticipated towards the end of the year [[^]](https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2026/02/02/palantir-pltr-q4-2025-earnings-call-transcript/?referring_guid=0e5fda4c-561a-42f2-964a-8334dbac96cd). These projections align with earlier **market** analyst estimates, which also indicated an increase to approximately 180-220 bootcamps per quarter by the end of 2025 [[^]](https://markets.financialcontent.com/wral/article/marketminute-2026-3-6-palantir-shares-surge-as-aip-bootcamp-strategy-cementing-dominance-in-enterprise-ai). This strategic expansion underscores Palantir's commitment to scaling its AIP Bootcamps for widespread adoption of its AI platforms [[^]](https://www.ainvest.com/news/palantir-bootcamp-driven-flywheel-ai-operating-system-dominance-2026-2601/). ## How Many New Government Customers Expected Before Q4 2025? UK NHS FDP Potential Deployments | 42 Integrated Care Systems (ICSs) [[^]](https://www.england.nhs.uk/digitaltechnology/nhs-federated-data-platform/security-privacy/contract-explainer/) | Palantir UK FDP Role | Lead supplier [[^]](https://www.england.nhs.uk/digitaltechnology/nhs-federated-data-platform/security-privacy/contract-explainer/) | US DoD Enterprise Contracts Status | Already secured, no new bids identified before Q4 2025 [[^]](https://www.army.mil/article/287506) | **Palantir's NHS FDP rollout could create 42 new customer engagements** Palantir's NHS FDP rollout could create 42 new customer engagements. As the lead supplier for the UK NHS Federated Data Platform (FDP), Palantir UK is responsible for overseeing the platform's deployment across each of England’s 42 Integrated Care Systems (ICSs) [[^]](https://www.england.nhs.uk/digitaltechnology/nhs-federated-data-platform/security-privacy/contract-explainer/). This platform operates under a five-year term with potential extension options. The scheduled deployments throughout 2024 and 2025 represent distinct operational customer engagements, with implementation decisions expected before the fourth quarter of 2025 as part of the continuous rollout process [[^]](https://www.england.nhs.uk/digitaltechnology/nhs-federated-data-platform/security-privacy/contract-explainer/). US DoD awards do not indicate new customer bids before Q4 2025. Research concerning US Department of Defense enterprise-level awards shows that Palantir has already secured significant contracts, rather than identifying new bids with decisions anticipated by Q4 2025. For instance, in 2023, the U.S. Army awarded Palantir an Enterprise Service Agreement (ESA) valued at **$250** million over five years, granting extensive access to their AI/ML and data management capabilities [[^]](https://www.army.mil/article/287506). Therefore, current sources do not specify new Department of Defense enterprise-level awards that would contribute to a count of new potential customers from bids expected to be decided within the specified timeframe. ## Does Palantir Disclose Gross Churn Rates by Customer Segment? Gross Churn Rate Disclosure | Not publicly disclosed for specific ACV tiers or customer types [[^]](https://churndog.com/saas-news/what-can-we-learn-about-growth-churn-and-retention-from-palantirs-latest-earnings-report) | Primary Reporting Focus | Overall customer count growth, U.S. commercial customer expansion, and net dollar retention [[^]](https://churndog.com/saas-news/what-can-we-learn-about-growth-churn-and-retention-from-palantirs-latest-earnings-report) | Existing Client Spending | Existing clients are spending significantly more, contributing to strong net retention [[^]](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/palantir-isnt-adding-many-customers-013107617.html) | **Palantir does not publicly disclose specific gross churn rates by customer segment** Palantir does not publicly disclose specific gross churn rates by customer segment. Palantir Technologies does not publicly disclose specific trailing twelve-month gross churn rates for commercial customers with an annual contract value under **$1** million, nor for legacy enterprise clients with contracts over **$5** million [[^]](https://churndog.com/saas-news/what-can-we-learn-about-growth-churn-and-retention-from-palantirs-latest-earnings-report). The company's public reporting primarily focuses on overall customer count growth, U.S. commercial customer expansion, and net dollar retention [[^]](https://churndog.com/saas-news/what-can-we-learn-about-growth-churn-and-retention-from-palantirs-latest-earnings-report). Palantir's reporting prioritizes net dollar retention over gross churn. Publicly available financial reports, investor presentations, and earnings call transcripts from Palantir do not provide specific gross churn rates, especially when segmented by annual contract value (ACV) tiers or customer types like commercial versus legacy enterprise [[^]](https://churndog.com/saas-news/what-can-we-learn-about-growth-churn-and-retention-from-palantirs-latest-earnings-report). Companies frequently opt to report metrics such as net dollar retention (NDR), which reflects the revenue retained from existing customers after accounting for upgrades, downgrades, and churn, rather than gross churn, which exclusively measures customer losses [[^]](https://churndog.com/saas-news/what-can-we-learn-about-growth-churn-and-retention-from-palantirs-latest-earnings-report). Palantir emphasizes existing client expansion, contributing to strong net retention. Palantir's strategy and reporting highlight expanding relationships with existing clients, contributing to strong net retention, as indicated by CEO Alex Karp's statements that existing clients are spending significantly more [[^]](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/palantir-isnt-adding-many-customers-013107617.html). For example, the company reported substantial U.S. Commercial Revenue Growth for Q1 2026 [[^]](https://investors.palantir.com/news-details/2026/Palantir-Reports-Q1-2026-U-S--Comm-Revenue-Growth-of-137-YY-and-Revenue-Growth-of-70-YY-Issues-FY-2026-Revenue-Guidance-of-61-YY-and-U-S--Comm-Revenue-Guidance-of-115-YY-Crushing-Consensus-Expectations/). Although these metrics demonstrate customer expansion and value generation, they do not offer the specific gross churn rates by ACV segment requested for comparison [[^]](https://churndog.com/saas-news/what-can-we-learn-about-growth-churn-and-retention-from-palantirs-latest-earnings-report). ## How Do Palantir's Channel Partnerships Drive Commercial Growth? PwC UK Partnership | Multi-year, multi-million-pound agreement in November 2025 [[^]](https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20251118441737/en/Palantir-and-PwC-UK-Sign-a-Multi-Year-Multi-Million-Pound-Deal-to-Accelerate-AI-Transformation-as-Preferred-Partners-in-the-UK) | Q4 2025 U.S. Commercial Customer Growth | 69% year-over-year [[^]](https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2026/02/02/palantir-pltr-q4-2025-earnings-call-transcript/?referring_guid=0e5fda4c-561a-42f2-964a-8334dbac96cd) | Channel Initiative Traction | Significant traction reported during Q4 2025 earnings call [[^]](https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2026/02/02/palantir-pltr-q4-2025-earnings-call-transcript/?referring_guid=0e5fda4c-561a-42f2-964a-8334dbac96cd) | **Palantir has strategically expanded its channel partnerships to drive commercial growth** Palantir has strategically expanded its channel partnerships to drive commercial growth. Since mid-2024, Palantir has significantly increased its channel collaborations, notably signing a multi-year, multi-million-pound agreement with PwC UK in November 2025, designating PwC as a preferred partner for AI transformation [[^]](https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20251118441737/en/Palantir-and-PwC-UK-Sign-a-Multi-Year-Multi-Million-Pound-Deal-to-Accelerate-AI-Transformation-as-Preferred-Partners-in-the-UK). Partnerships with Managed Service Providers (MSPs) and System Integrators (SIs), such as Accenture, are deemed critical for commercial success, especially in the U.S., and are reportedly expanding Palantir's reach into new **market** segments [[^]](https://futurumgroup.com/insights/accenture-bets-on-palantir-momentum/). During the Q4 2025 earnings call, executives acknowledged "significant traction in our channel initiatives," emphasizing their role in driving new customer adoption for the AI Platform [[^]](https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2026/02/02/palantir-pltr-q4-2025-earnings-call-transcript/?referring_guid=0e5fda4c-561a-42f2-964a-8334dbac96cd). Specific growth rates for channel partnerships and customer sourcing percentages are unavailable. While Palantir utilizes both direct sales, including its "Bootcamp" strategy, and indirect sales through channel partners like MSPs, SIs, and VARs for commercial customer acquisition [[^]](https://www.gtmfoundry.vc/p/palantirs-bootcamp-gtm-strategy), the provided research does not detail the quarter-over-quarter growth rates for these partnerships or the precise percentage of new commercial customers acquired via indirect versus direct sales [[^]](https://investors.palantir.com/files/Palantir%20Q2%**202024%**20Business%20Update.pdf). However, the company's overall U.S. commercial customer count grew by **69%** year-over-year in Q4 2025, with 26 new customers added quarter-over-quarter, indicating strong growth across all channels without a specific breakdown by source [[^]](https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2026/02/02/palantir-pltr-q4-2025-earnings-call-transcript/?referring_guid=0e5fda4c-561a-42f2-964a-8334dbac96cd). ## What is Palantir's required customer growth rate to reach its target? Starting Customer Count (Q2 2024) | 509 [[^]](https://investors.palantir.com/files/Palantir%20Q2%202024%20Business%20Update.pdf), [[^]](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1321655/000132165524000133/a2024q2ex991pressrelease.htm) | Target Customer Count (Q1 2026) | 1040 [[^]](https://www.solflare.com/prediction/companies/event/KXPLTR-26MAYCUST/) | Required Avg. Quarterly Additions | 75.86 [[^]](https://www.statista.com/statistics/1286996/palantir-technologies-number-of-customers/) | **Palantir requires 75.86 net customer additions quarterly to reach 1040 by Q1 2026** Palantir requires 75.86 net customer additions quarterly to reach 1040 by Q1 2026. To meet the goal of 1040 customers by the end of Q1 2026, Palantir had to add a total of 531 net customers, starting from 509 customers at the close of Q2 2024 [[^]](https://investors.palantir.com/files/Palantir%20Q2%**202024%**20Business%20Update.pdf), [[^]](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1321655/000132165524000133/a2024q2ex991pressrelease.htm). This growth was projected over seven quarters, demanding an average of 75.86 net customer additions per quarter to achieve the target [[^]](https://investors.palantir.com/files/Palantir%20Q2%**202024%**20Business%20Update.pdf), [[^]](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1321655/000132165524000133/a2024q2ex991pressrelease.htm), [[^]](https://www.solflare.com/prediction/companies/event/KXPLTR-26MAYCUST/). Palantir's customer growth has largely met or exceeded the required run-rate. While the company's forward guidance typically emphasizes overall business performance, its actual customer growth can be tracked against this necessary run-rate. Commercial customers grew from 509 at the end of Q2 2024 to 606 by the end of Q4 2024 [[^]](https://investors.palantir.com/files/Palantir%20Q4%**202024%**20Business%20Update.pdf). By the end of Q1 2025, the customer count reached 689 [[^]](https://investors.palantir.com/files/Palantir%20-%20Q1%**202025%**20Investor%20Presentation.pdf), adding 83 customers in that quarter, which surpassed the required average. Furthermore, the customer base expanded to 891 by the end of Q3 2025 [[^]](https://investors.palantir.com/files/Palantir%20-%20Q3%**202025%**20Investor%20Presentation.pdf), and reached 968 by the end of Q4 2025 [[^]](https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2026/02/02/palantir-pltr-q4-2025-earnings-call-transcript/?referring_guid=0e5fda4c-561a-42f2-964a-8334dbac96cd). Q1 2026 additions brought Palantir very close to its target. To achieve the 1040 customer target by the end of Q1 2026, Palantir needed to add 72 net customers in Q1 2026, building upon the Q4 2025 total of 968 [[^]](https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2026/02/02/palantir-pltr-q4-2025-earnings-call-transcript/?referring_guid=0e5fda4c-561a-42f2-964a-8334dbac96cd). This figure of 72 net additions is notably close to the calculated average quarterly run-rate of 75.86 additions required over the full period. ## What Could Change the Odds **Key takeaway.** Catalyst analysis unavailable. ## Key Dates & Catalysts - **Expiration:** June 03, 2026 - **Closes:** June 03, 2026 ## Decision-Flipping Events - Catalyst analysis unavailable. ## Related Research Reports - [When will Apple announce foldable iPhone?](/markets/companies/product-launches/when-will-apple-announce-foldable-iphone/) - [Courts consider Apple a monopoly?](/markets/companies/courts-consider-apple-a-monopoly/) - [Jamie Dimon leaves JPMorgan Chase?](/markets/companies/ceos/jamie-dimon-leaves-jpmorgan-chase/) - [When will Tim Cook leave Apple?](/markets/companies/ceos/when-will-tim-cook-leave-apple/) ## Historical Resolutions No historical resolution data available for this series. ## Disclaimer This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or trading advice. Prediction markets involve risk of loss. Past performance does not guarantee future results. We are not affiliated with Kalshi or any prediction market platform. Market data may be delayed or incomplete. ### Data Sources & Model Transparency **Data Sources:** Octagon Deep Research aggregates information from multiple sources including news, filings, and market data. **Freshness:** Analysis is generated periodically and may not reflect the latest developments. Verify critical information from primary sources. ## Attribution Policy When quoting, summarizing, or reproducing Octagon AI content, attribute it to Octagon AI and link to the Octagon source URL: https://octagonai.co/markets/companies/kpis/palantir-total-customers-in-q1-2026 If a specific page was used, cite that page rather than only the site homepage.