# Oil Price (WTI) on May 1, 2026?

On May 1, 2026

Updated: April 30, 2026

Category: Commodities

Tags: Oil & Gas

HTML: /markets/commodities/oil-gas/oil-price-wti-on-may-1-2026/

## Short Answer

**Key takeaway.** Both the **model** and the **market** expect WTI oil prices to be **$100** or above on May 1, 2026, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.

## Key Claims (January 2026)

**- Non-OPEC+ oil production is projected to increase by 2026.** China's oil demand growth is expected to decelerate.
   OPEC+ holds significant spare production capacity by 2026.
   US SPR repurchases create a potential floor for oil prices.
*   SPR repurchases target oil prices around **$72**-**$79** per barrel.

### Why This Matters (GEO)

- AI agents extract claims, not arguments.
- Improves citation probability in summaries and answer cards.
- Enables fact stitching across multiple sources.

## Executive Verdict

**Key takeaway.** At 89c, the **market** overprices the **83.2%** **model** **probability**, driven by supply growth and slowing demand.

### Who Wins and Why

| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| $105 or above | 55.0% | 42.7% | Increased non-OPEC+ production and decelerating Chinese demand are expected to put downward pressure on oil prices. |
| $107 or above | 38.0% | 27.1% | Increased non-OPEC+ production and decelerating Chinese demand are expected to put downward pressure on oil prices. |
| $101 or above | 83.0% | 75.0% | The U.S. SPR target to repurchase oil creates a floor, supporting lower price outcomes. |

## Model vs Market

| Outcome | Market Probability | Octagon Model Probability |
| --- | --- | --- |
| $105 or above | 55.0% | 42.7% |
| $107 or above | 38.0% | 27.1% |
| $101 or above | 83.0% | 75.0% |
| $106 or above | 50.0% | 37.8% |
| $109 or above | 26.0% | 17.5% |
| $103 or above | 67.0% | 55.4% |
| $102 or above | 81.0% | 72.3% |
| $113 or above | 5.0% | 5.6% |
| $108 or above | 33.0% | 23.0% |
| $111 or above | 14.0% | 8.9% |
| $100 or above | 89.0% | 83.2% |
| $110 or above | 21.0% | 13.8% |
| $112 or above | 8.0% | 5.6% |
| $104 or above | 64.0% | 52.0% |
| $114 or above | 9.0% | 5.6% |

- Expiration: May 1, 2026

## Market Behavior & Price Dynamics

Based on the provided chart data, the prediction market for the WTI oil price on May 1, 2026, has demonstrated a predominantly sideways trend. The price has been range-bound, fluctuating between a low of 79.0% and a high of 94.0%. Since its opening at 88.0%, the market has shown little directional momentum, currently trading at 89.0%. The most significant price levels established are the support at 79.0% and resistance at 94.0%, which define the trading range observed to date. Without additional context on specific news or geopolitical events, the direct causes for the brief dips to support or rallies to resistance cannot be determined from the price action alone.

The trading volume provides some insight into market conviction. While the overall volume is moderate at 3,759 contracts, the sample data reveals a significant concentration of activity. A single transaction or a series of trades totaling over 445 contracts occurred at the 89.0% price level, indicating this is a key point of interest where significant capital was deployed. This high volume reinforces the 89.0% level as a point of price agreement. Overall, the chart suggests a stable and confident market sentiment. The persistently high probability, hovering near 89.0%, indicates a strong consensus among participants that the underlying condition for a "YES" resolution will be met. The sideways movement implies this expectation has remained largely unchanged throughout the market's history.

## Significant Price Movements

#### 📉 April 30, 2026: 10.0pp drop

Price decreased from 77.0% to 67.0%

**Outcome:** $103 or above

**What happened:** No supporting research available for this anomaly.

## Contract Snapshot

This market resolves to YES if the front-month settle price for a barrel of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil on May 1, 2026, is above $105.99; otherwise, it resolves to NO. The outcome will be verified using data from ICE. Trading for this market closes at 2:30 PM EDT on May 1, 2026, with a projected payout at 3:30 PM EDT on the same day.

## Market Discussion

Limited public discussion available for this market.

## Market Data

| Contract | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | Last Price | Volume | Open Interest |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| $101 or above | 85% | 86% | 86% | $7,517.01 | $4,602.59 |
| $102 or above | 82% | 84% | 83% | $5,119.35 | $3,530.69 |
| $103 or above | 71% | 74% | 74% | $6,158.83 | $2,590.03 |
| $104 or above | 65% | 68% | 69% | $3,694.4 | $3,184.89 |
| $105 or above | 57% | 61% | 58% | $8,818.93 | $6,072.37 |
| $106 or above | 51% | 54% | 53% | $7,816.48 | $5,082.91 |
| $107 or above | 38% | 42% | 43% | $7,958.12 | $4,359.44 |
| $108 or above | 30% | 33% | 33% | $4,265.69 | $3,010.8 |
| $109 or above | 22% | 26% | 26% | $6,394.52 | $4,469.69 |
| $110 or above | 17% | 20% | 17% | $4,119.05 | $3,173.4 |
| $111 or above | 10% | 12% | 10% | $4,176.4 | $2,985.18 |
| $112 or above | 7% | 10% | 8% | $3,490.45 | $2,898.78 |
| $113 or above | 5% | 13% | 7% | $4,332.71 | $3,754.96 |
| $114 or above | 6% | 7% | 7% | $3,364.22 | $3,209.81 |
| $100 or above | 89% | 95% | 93% | $4,775.04 | $3,492.19 |

## What Is the Projected Oil Spare Capacity of Key Nations by 2026?

Aggregate Spare Production Capacity | 3.8 million bpd by Q1 2026 [[^]](https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-market-report-april-2026) |
Saudi Arabia Spare Production Capacity | 2.5 million bpd by Q1 2026 [[^]](https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-market-report-april-2026) |
UAE Spare Production Capacity | 0.8 million bpd by Q1 2026 [[^]](https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-market-report-april-2026) |

**Key producers project significant aggregate spare capacity by Q1 2026**

Key producers project significant aggregate spare capacity by Q1 2026. The combined spare production capacity of Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Russia is projected to reach approximately 3.8 million barrels per day (bpd) by the first quarter of 2026 [[^]](https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-**market**-report-april-2026). Saudi Arabia is anticipated to contribute about 2.5 million bpd to this total, with the UAE adding 0.8 million bpd, and Russia providing approximately 0.5 million bpd [[^]](https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-**market**-report-april-2026). This substantial collective capacity represents a crucial element of the broader OPEC+ buffer, vital for maintaining stability in global oil markets [[^]](https://themiddleeastinsider.com/2026/04/22/opec-spare-capacity-april-2026/).

OPEC+ members generally adhered to quotas throughout 2025 despite challenges. Throughout 2025, official statements from major OPEC+ members, including Saudi Arabia and Russia, consistently confirmed their commitment to **market** stability and necessary production adjustments [[^]](https://www.moenergy.gov.sa/en/media-center/news/opec-members-reaffirm-commitment-to-maintaining-oil-**market**-stability). Saudi Arabia was particularly recognized for its sustained leadership in stabilizing oil markets via production cuts [[^]](https://theboard.world/articles/opec-production-cuts-2026-why-saudi-arabia-holds-all-the). The United Arab Emirates largely adhered to its agreed quotas during this period, even with aspirations to increase its production capacity; their potential exit from OPEC+ is projected for Q2 2026, ensuring their operation under quotas for 2025 [[^]](https://theboard.world/articles/opec-production-cuts-2026-why-saudi-arabia-holds-all-the). Russia's adherence was less consistent, attributed to operational and sanctions-related difficulties, though its government officially reaffirmed its commitments [[^]](https://theboard.world/articles/opec-production-cuts-2026-why-saudi-arabia-holds-all-the). Specific tanker tracking data regarding 2025 adherence was not detailed within the provided research.

## What is the Forecast for Non-OPEC+ Oil Production Growth by 2025?

Non-OPEC+ Production Increase (2025) | 1.7 million barrels per day (b/d) [[^]](https://www.eia.gov/tODAyinenergy/detail.php?id=64565) |
Share of Global Liquid Fuels Supply Growth (2025) | 90% [[^]](https://www.ogj.com/general-interest/economics-markets/article/55248754/eia-90-of-2025-oil-supply-growth-will-come-from-non-opec-countries) |
ExxonMobil Stabroek Block Production (Nov 2025) | 900,000 b/d [[^]](https://www.offshore-mag.com/production/news/55331561/exxonmobil-stabroek-block-production-offshore-guyana-passes-900000-bbl-d-milestone) |

**Non-OPEC+ nations will drive most global liquid fuels supply growth**

Non-OPEC+ nations will drive most global liquid fuels supply growth. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts non-OPEC+ petroleum liquids production to increase by 1.7 million barrels per day (b/d) by year-end 2025 [[^]](https://www.eia.gov/tODAyinenergy/detail.php?id=64565). This expansion is anticipated to be the primary contributor to global supply growth, with these countries expected to account for approximately **90%** of the total liquid fuels supply growth in 2025 [[^]](https://www.ogj.com/general-interest/economics-markets/article/55248754/eia-90-of-2025-oil-supply-growth-will-come-from-non-opec-countries).

Key projects like Guyana's Stabroek Block significantly boost non-OPEC+ supply. ExxonMobil's operations in the Stabroek Block offshore Guyana achieved a daily production milestone of 900,000 b/d by November 12, 2025 [[^]](https://www.offshore-mag.com/production/news/55331561/exxonmobil-stabroek-block-production-offshore-guyana-passes-900000-bbl-d-milestone). This impactful production from Guyana is a notable contribution to the broader non-OPEC+ supply expansion forecast for 2025.

## How are China and India's oil demand forecasts evolving?

China 2025 Oil Demand Growth (IEA) | 300 kb/d (April 2026 OMR [[^]](https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-market-report-april-2026)) |
India 2025 Oil Demand Growth (IEA) | 250 kb/d (March and April 2026 OMRs [[^]](http://www.iea.org/reports/oil-market-report-march-2026)) |
China Q1 2026 EV Sales Penetration | Approximately 35% of new car sales (Q1 2026 [[^]](https://andamanpartners.com/2026/03/global-car-markets-and-the-uneven-transition-to-electric-vehicles/)) |

**Oil demand growth forecasts show differing trends for China and India**

Oil demand growth forecasts show differing trends for China and India. The International Energy Agency (IEA) has consistently lowered its 2025 oil demand growth forecast for China, decreasing from 340 thousand barrels per day (kb/d) in February 2026 [[^]](https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-**market**-report-february-2026) to 300 kb/d by April 2026 [[^]](https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-**market**-report-april-2026), with its 2026 projection standing at 280 kb/d [[^]](https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-**market**-report-april-2026). In contrast, the IEA's 2025 India oil demand growth forecast saw a slight increase from 240 kb/d in February 2026 [[^]](https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-**market**-report-february-2026) to 250 kb/d by March 2026 [[^]](http://www.iea.org/reports/oil-**market**-report-march-2026), with a 2026 forecast of 260 kb/d [[^]](https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-**market**-report-april-2026). The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) also anticipates China's oil demand growth at 0.4 million barrels per day (mb/d) in 2025 and 0.3 mb/d in 2026, while projecting India's growth at 0.2 mb/d for both years, attributing this to sustained economic expansion [[^]](https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/?rid=74).

Real-time data presents a nuanced picture for future oil consumption. Data on China's industrial output indicates growth of **4.5%** year-on-year in March 2026 [[^]](https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/202604/t20260417_1963356.html) and **6.1%** in Q1 2026 [[^]](https://english.www.gov.cn/archive/statistics/202604/16/content_WS69e04b52c6d00ca5f9a0a735.html), activity that typically supports oil demand. However, this potential boost is offset by the rapid adoption of electric vehicles (EVs), with sales penetration reaching approximately **35%** of new car sales in China during Q1 2026 [[^]](https://andamanpartners.com/2026/03/global-car-markets-and-the-uneven-transition-to-electric-vehicles/), demonstrating its global leadership in EV markets. India's EV **market** also expanded, with sales penetration climbing to **8%** of total vehicle sales in Q1 2026 from **5%** in 2025 [[^]](https://www.evblogs.in/electric-vehicle/state-of-ev-india-2026/), though its growth rate is slower compared to China [[^]](https://andamanpartners.com/2026/03/global-car-markets-and-the-uneven-transition-to-electric-vehicles/). These accelerating efficiency gains and EV penetration trends suggest a potential constraint on future oil demand growth in the transportation sectors of both nations [[^]](https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-**market**-report-april-2026).

## What Is the U.S. Strategy for Refilling the Strategic Petroleum Reserve?

Target Purchase Price | Around $72 per barrel, not exceeding $79 per barrel [[^]](https://www.energy.gov/articles/energy-department-awards-contracts-begin-refilling-strategic-petroleum-reserve) |
Estimated Full Refill Cost | Approximately $20 billion [[^]](https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/index/S-P-GSCI-PETROLEUM-INDEX-46869201/news/US-ENERGY-CHIEF-CHRIS-WRIGHT-PLANS-TO-SEEK-20-BILLION-TO-REFILL--49271443/) |
Initial Refill Volume | 3 million barrels for January 2023 delivery [[^]](https://www.energy.gov/articles/energy-department-awards-contracts-begin-refilling-strategic-petroleum-reserve) |

**The U.S**

The U.S. Department of Energy established clear SPR refilling targets. The Department of Energy (DOE) has outlined a strategy to repurchase oil for the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) at an approximate price of **$72** per barrel, with a strict ceiling of **$79** per barrel, prioritizing taxpayer value [[^]](https://www.energy.gov/articles/energy-department-awards-contracts-begin-refilling-strategic-petroleum-reserve). This replenishment initiative commenced with the delivery of 3 million barrels in January 2023 [[^]](https://www.energy.gov/articles/energy-department-awards-contracts-begin-refilling-strategic-petroleum-reserve). The DOE maintains a consistent, phased approach through monthly solicitations for crude oil, including a request for 1 million barrels for delivery in October 2025 [[^]](https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/us-seeks-1-million-barrels-oil-strategic-petroleum-reserve-2025-10-21/).

SPR refilling faces significant future political and financial influences. Completing the refilling of the SPR is a substantial undertaking, estimated to cost around **$20** billion and span several years [[^]](https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/index/S-P-GSCI-PETROLEUM-INDEX-46869201/news/US-ENERGY-CHIEF-CHRIS-WRIGHT-PLANS-TO-SEEK-20-BILLION-TO-REFILL--49271443/). While current research does not explicitly detail how SPR refilling policy would evolve under different U.S. presidential election outcomes, the pace and funding levels are highly susceptible to legislative priorities. For instance, a U.S. House budget bill proposed over **$1.5** billion for the SPR in May 2025 [[^]](https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/us-house-budget-bill-seeks-more-than-15-billion-strategic-petroleum-reserve-2025-05-12/), illustrating how future administrations and congressional compositions could impact political support and resource allocation.

## What is the 2025 Upstream Capital Expenditure for Big Oil?

ExxonMobil 2025 Total Capital Expenditure | $27 billion to $29 billion [[^]](https://energy-analytics-institute.org/2024/12/11/exxonmobil-reveals-2030-corporate-plan-eyes-capex-of-27bn-29bn-in-2025/) |
BP Upstream Capital Allocation | 75% of group capital expenditure [[^]](https://www.ogj.com/general-interest/companies/article/55270915/bp-sets-new-course-plans-75-group-capex-allocation-to-upstream-oil-and-gas) |
2025 Capex Data Availability for Major Companies | Not available for Chevron, Shell, TotalEnergies, and BP total group capex [[^]](https://www.chevron.com/newsroom/2024/q4/chevron-announces-2025-capex-budget) |

**Data limitations prevent calculating aggregate 2025 upstream capital expenditure for key oil companies**

Data limitations prevent calculating aggregate 2025 upstream capital expenditure for key oil companies. While ExxonMobil's planned total capital expenditure for 2025 is projected to be between **$27** billion and **$29** billion [[^]](https://energy-analytics-institute.org/2024/12/11/exxonmobil-reveals-2030-corporate-plan-eyes-capex-of-27bn-29bn-in-2025/), and BP intends to allocate **75%** of its group capital expenditure to upstream oil and gas [[^]](https://www.ogj.com/general-interest/companies/article/55270915/bp-sets-new-course-plans-75-group-capex-allocation-to-upstream-oil-and-gas), specific 2025 capital expenditure budgets for Chevron, Shell, and TotalEnergies, as well as BP's total group capital expenditure, are not available in the provided sources [[^]](https://www.chevron.com/newsroom/2024/q4/chevron-announces-2025-capex-budget). Due to these data gaps, a comprehensive aggregate upstream capital expenditure budget for the five largest international oil companies cannot be calculated.

IEA demand projections and required investment levels are unavailable in sources. The provided research output lacks any information regarding the International Energy Agency's (IEA) projected 2026 demand under its 'Stated Policies Scenario' (STEPS). Additionally, details on the investment levels required to meet that demand are also absent. Consequently, a comparison between any aggregated capital expenditure of the oil companies and the IEA's projected investment requirements cannot be made with the information provided.

## What Could Change the Odds

**Key takeaway.** Catalyst analysis unavailable.

## Key Dates & Catalysts

- **Strike Date:** May 01, 2026
- **Expiration:** May 08, 2026
- **Closes:** May 01, 2026

## Decision-Flipping Events

- Catalyst analysis unavailable.

## Related Research Reports

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## Historical Resolutions

**Historical Resolutions:** 20 markets in this series

**Outcomes:** 3 resolved YES, 17 resolved NO

**Recent resolutions:**

- KXWTI-26APR29-T112.99: NO (Apr 29, 2026)
- KXWTI-26APR29-T111.99: NO (Apr 29, 2026)
- KXWTI-26APR29-T110.99: NO (Apr 29, 2026)
- KXWTI-26APR29-T109.99: NO (Apr 29, 2026)
- KXWTI-26APR29-T108.99: NO (Apr 29, 2026)

## Disclaimer

This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or trading advice.
Prediction markets involve risk of loss. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
We are not affiliated with Kalshi or any prediction market platform. Market data may be delayed or incomplete.

### Data Sources & Model Transparency

**Data Sources:** Octagon Deep Research aggregates information from multiple sources including news, filings, and market data.

**Freshness:** Analysis is generated periodically and may not reflect the latest developments. Verify critical information from primary sources.

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