# Diesel (heating) oil price on Apr 30, 2026 at 5pm EDT?

Apr 30, 2026 at 5pm EDT

Updated: April 29, 2026

Category: Commodities

Tags: Oil & Gas

HTML: /markets/commodities/oil-gas/diesel-heating-oil-price-on-apr-30-2026-at-5pm-edt/

## Short Answer

**Key takeaway.** The **model** assigns meaningfully higher odds (**96.6%** vs **71.0%** **market**) for the diesel (heating) oil price being above **$3.499**, driven by expectations of significant upward pressure on prices from the ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

## Key Claims (January 2026)

**- - Ongoing Strait of Hormuz closure will push heating oil prices higher.** - Recent data shows a nationwide decline in U.S. diesel prices.
- A significant economic slowdown could lower heating oil prices.
- Informed **market** participants anticipate higher heating oil prices by April 2026.
- Significant upward price movement occurred in late April 2026.

### Why This Matters (GEO)

- AI agents extract claims, not arguments.
- Improves citation probability in summaries and answer cards.
- Enables fact stitching across multiple sources.

## Executive Verdict

**Key takeaway.** **Model**'s **96.6%** **probability** is 25.6pp above 71c **market**, implying 1.4x payout on Strait of Hormuz disruption.

### Who Wins and Why

| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| above $4.449 | 3.0% | 3.4% | Model higher by 0.4pp |
| above $4.049 | 30.0% | 48.8% | Model higher by 18.8pp |
| above $3.899 | 79.0% | 81.6% | Model higher by 2.6pp |

## Model vs Market

| Outcome | Market Probability | Octagon Model Probability |
| --- | --- | --- |
| above $4.449 | 3.0% | 3.4% |
| above $4.049 | 30.0% | 48.8% |
| above $3.899 | 79.0% | 81.6% |
| above $4.399 | 3.0% | 3.4% |
| above $3.549 | 93.0% | 96.6% |
| above $4.199 | 39.0% | 42.6% |
| above $3.699 | 93.0% | 95.7% |
| above $3.599 | 70.0% | 96.6% |
| above $3.849 | 95.0% | 95.7% |
| above $3.649 | 96.0% | 96.6% |
| above $3.499 | 71.0% | 96.6% |
| above $3.749 | 58.0% | 95.7% |
| above $4.249 | 37.0% | 40.5% |
| above $4.099 | 34.0% | 48.8% |
| above $3.999 | 55.0% | 58.8% |
| above $4.149 | 45.0% | 48.8% |
| above $3.949 | 37.0% | 58.8% |
| above $4.349 | 21.0% | 23.5% |
| above $4.299 | 3.0% | 23.5% |
| above $3.799 | 94.0% | 95.7% |

- Expiration: April 30, 2026

## Market Behavior & Price Dynamics

This market exhibits a sideways long-term trend, with the current price of 71.0% sitting very near its starting price of 69.0%. Despite this relative stability over its full history, the chart shows a period of extreme volatility in mid-April. On April 18, the probability dropped significantly by 24.0 percentage points from 65.0% to a low of 41.0%. This was followed by a rapid and aggressive reversal, with the price spiking 36.0 percentage points to a high of 87.0% by April 21. The cause for this sharp sell-off and subsequent rally is not apparent from the available context. The price has since settled back to 71.0%, inside its previous range.

The price action has established a clear support level around the 37.0%-41.0% range and a resistance level at the 87.0% peak. Total trading volume is low at 342 contracts, and recent price points show zero volume. This suggests the market is currently illiquid, and the significant price swings may have been driven by a small number of trades rather than broad market participation. The lack of recent volume indicates that conviction may be low, despite the current price implying a high probability of a "YES" resolution. Overall, market sentiment appears to favor the "YES" outcome but remains unsettled, as evidenced by the recent period of high volatility on low volume and the subsequent return toward the market's opening price.

## Significant Price Movements

### Outcome: above $3.699

#### 📈 April 29, 2026: 28.0pp spike

Price increased from 65.0% to 93.0%

**What happened:** No supporting research available for this anomaly.

#### 📉 April 25, 2026: 8.0pp drop

Price decreased from 66.0% to 58.0%

**What happened:** No supporting research available for this anomaly.

### Outcome: above $3.549

#### 📈 April 28, 2026: 18.0pp spike

Price increased from 75.0% to 93.0%

**What happened:** No supporting research available for this anomaly.

### Outcome: above $3.649

#### 📈 April 27, 2026: 20.0pp spike

Price increased from 49.0% to 69.0%

**What happened:** No supporting research available for this anomaly.

#### 📉 April 26, 2026: 20.0pp drop

Price decreased from 69.0% to 49.0%

**What happened:** No supporting research available for this anomaly.

## Contract Snapshot

This market resolves to "Yes" if the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for heating oil on April 30, 2026, at 5 PM EDT is above $4.049 USD/Gal; otherwise, it resolves to "No." The market closes at 5:00 PM EDT on April 30, 2026, with a projected payout an hour later. Settlement is verified using Trading Economics data, rounded to the nearest three decimal places, and uses the most recently available data if no data is published at the specified time.

## Market Discussion

Limited public discussion available for this market.

## Market Data

| Contract | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | Last Price | Volume | Open Interest |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| above $3.499 | 71% | 97% | 71% | $498.3 | $252.47 |
| above $3.549 | 70% | 97% | 93% | $1,006.6 | $753.22 |
| above $3.599 | 66% | 96% | 70% | $593.33 | $341.74 |
| above $3.649 | 65% | 96% | 96% | $515.49 | $342.38 |
| above $3.699 | 65% | 96% | 93% | $739.85 | $486.74 |
| above $3.749 | 59% | 98% | 58% | $417.04 | $354.85 |
| above $3.799 | 57% | 97% | 94% | $17.6 | $15.6 |
| above $3.849 | 54% | 97% | 95% | $584.01 | $557.01 |
| above $3.899 | 60% | 94% | 79% | $1,596.97 | $535.51 |
| above $3.949 | 50% | 97% | 37% | $139 | $117 |
| above $3.999 | 41% | 68% | 55% | $273.58 | $248.58 |
| above $4.049 | 32% | 66% | 30% | $2,556.23 | $566.12 |
| above $4.099 | 24% | 58% | 34% | $308.35 | $245.65 |
| above $4.149 | 11% | 27% | 45% | $244.82 | $145 |
| above $4.199 | 8% | 33% | 39% | $839.89 | $839.89 |
| above $4.249 | 6% | 34% | 37% | $369.69 | $369.69 |
| above $4.299 | 3% | 32% | 3% | $21 | $19 |
| above $4.349 | 3% | 27% | 21% | $98.83 | $38.83 |
| above $4.399 | 2% | 5% | 3% | $1,491.29 | $1,138.29 |
| above $4.449 | 3% | 4% | 3% | $2,664.3 | $2,537.59 |

## How will Strait of Hormuz closure impact April 2026 diesel prices?

Strait of Hormuz Closure Date | April 18, 2026 [[^]](https://uat.apnews.com/article/us-iran-war-israel-hormuz-18-april-2026-ab475cb979825b956a10d60103026b37) |
Ship Seizure Standoff | By April 23, 2026 [[^]](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/23/iran-war-strait-hormuz-tanker-traffic-oil.html) |
Peace Efforts Status | Deadlock as of April 28, 2026 [[^]](https://www.npr.org/2026/04/28/nx-s1-5802283/iran-middle-east-updates) |

**The primary determinant for Diesel heating oil prices on April 30, 2026, is an ongoing geopolitical conflict involving Iran and its disruption of oil transit through the Strait of Hormuz [[^]](https://www.npr.org/2026/04/28/nx-s1-5802283/iran-middle-east-updates)**

The primary determinant for Diesel heating oil prices on April 30, 2026, is an ongoing geopolitical conflict involving Iran and its disruption of oil transit through the Strait of Hormuz [[^]](https://www.npr.org/2026/04/28/nx-s1-5802283/iran-middle-east-updates). A critical development occurred on April 18, 2026, when the Iran Revolutionary Guard fully closed this vital waterway, firing on ships and causing an immediate global oil supply shock [[^]](https://uat.apnews.com/article/us-iran-war-israel-hormuz-18-april-2026-ab475cb979825b956a10d60103026b37).

Conflict rapidly escalated with mutual ship seizures and stalled peace efforts. This situation rapidly escalated into a standoff by April 23, 2026, with both the U.S. and Iran seizing ships as the conflict deepened [[^]](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/23/iran-war-strait-hormuz-tanker-traffic-oil.html). Iran subsequently offered to reopen the Strait on April 27 if the U.S. lifted its blockade, but the U.S. remained unresponsive without progress on a broader nuclear deal [[^]](https://apnews.com/article/us-iran-war-hormuz-april-27-2026-374d81d1aac6d8f19c21e1d1e10ab103). By April 28, 2026, peace efforts were crippled by a continuing deadlock over Iran's nuclear program and the Strait of Hormuz, indicating the issue remained volatile and unresolved [[^]](https://www.npr.org/2026/04/28/nx-s1-5802283/iran-middle-east-updates).

Strait of Hormuz disruption directly drives global oil and diesel prices. These events directly impede the flow of crude oil, essential for diesel production, through one of the world's most vital maritime chokepoints. Such a significant disruption to global oil supply inevitably drives up crude oil prices, consequently increasing prices for refined products like diesel and heating oil. While other factors contribute to **market** volatility, the immediate and critical impact of the Strait of Hormuz closure and the ongoing geopolitical standoff is the most influential variable for diesel prices on the specified date [[^]](https://dispatchrepublic.com/lessons-from-past-oil-price-shocks/).

## Are U.S. Diesel Prices Declining, And What's the Long-Term Outlook?

Current U.S. Diesel Price Trend | Declined for a third consecutive week [[^]](https://www.fleetowner.com/emissions-efficiency/news/55372239/us-diesel-and-gasoline-prices-decline-nationwide-as-eia-reports-regional-fuel-cost-drops) |
National Average Diesel Price | Fallen for the third consecutive week [[^]](https://www.fleetowner.com/emissions-efficiency/news/55372239/us-diesel-and-gasoline-prices-decline-nationwide-as-eia-reports-regional-fuel-cost-drops) |
Long-Term Diesel Price Outlook | Remains high with futures trending upward [[^]](https://www.rfdtv.com/diesel-prices-fall-again-but-outlook-remains-high) |

**U.S**

U.S. diesel prices have recently experienced a nationwide decline. Recent data indicates a nationwide fall in U.S. diesel and gasoline prices, with U.S. diesel prices declining for a third consecutive week [[^]](https://www.fleetowner.com/emissions-efficiency/news/55372239/us-diesel-and-gasoline-prices-decline-nationwide-as-eia-reports-regional-fuel-cost-drops). This trend is reflected in the notable decrease in the national average for diesel, alongside observed drops in regional fuel costs and a third straight decline in benchmark diesel prices [[^]](https://www.fleetowner.com/emissions-efficiency/news/55372239/us-diesel-and-gasoline-prices-decline-nationwide-as-eia-reports-regional-fuel-cost-drops).

Despite recent drops, the long-term outlook for diesel prices remains high. While current spot prices are decreasing, futures contracts show an upward trend, suggesting potential increases over the long term due to underlying factors [[^]](https://www.rfdtv.com/diesel-prices-fall-again-but-outlook-remains-high). Continuous monitoring of specific data, such as API Distillate Stocks [[^]](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/api-distillate-stocks) and the EIA's weekly petroleum supply highlights [[^]](https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/supply/weekly/pdf/highlights.pdf), will be crucial for understanding ongoing supply and demand dynamics in the future.

## What Factors Point to Lower Diesel Oil Prices by April 2026?

Hormuz Reopening Date | April 17, 2026 [[^]](https://oilmarketcap.com/hormuz-reopens-oil-supply-risk-eases/) |
EIA Oil Price Forecast | Lower prices throughout 2026 and 2027 [[^]](https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=67164) |
Analyst Price Projection | Oil prices in $60s by end of 2026 [[^]](https://adi-analytics.com/2026/04/16/why-oil-is-likely-to-fall-back-into-the-60s-by-end-2026/) |

**A compelling argument against an elevated or stable market consensus for Diesel (heating) oil prices on April 30, 2026, is based on a significant easing of geopolitical supply risks**

A compelling argument against an elevated or stable **market** consensus for Diesel (heating) oil prices on April 30, 2026, is based on a significant easing of geopolitical supply risks. The Strait of Hormuz reportedly reopened on April 17, 2026, leading to an immediate reduction in supply risk and a subsequent plunge in oil prices [[^]](https://oilmarketcap.com/hormuz-reopens-oil-supply-risk-eases/). This development, occurring just weeks before the resolution date, indicates strong downward pressure on prices, potentially contradicting any **market** consensus anticipating continued supply tightness or elevated risk premiums [[^]](https://www.bicmagazine.com/industry/offshore-marine/strait-of-hormuz-reopens/).

Furthermore, underlying **market** fundamentals and long-term forecasts suggest a bearish outlook. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) projects lower oil prices throughout 2026 and 2027, primarily due to persistent stock builds [[^]](https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=67164), indicating a structural oversupply scenario. Reinforcing this perspective, analyst projections from April 16, 2026, suggest oil prices are likely to fall back into the **$60**s by the end of 2026 [[^]](https://adi-analytics.com/2026/04/16/why-oil-is-likely-to-fall-back-into-the-60s-by-end-2026/). These combined factors provide a strong case against a **market** consensus for elevated or stable heating oil prices by April 30, 2026.

## What is the Heating Oil Price Forecast for April 2026?

Probability of Price Exceeding $3.549 | 75% by April 30, 2026 (prediction market) [[^]](https://simplefunctions.dev/markets/will-the-heating-oil-close-price-be-above-3549-usd-kalshi-kxhoilmon-26apr3017-t3.549) |
April 2026 ULSD Futures | Actively traded (HOJ26, NYMEX) [[^]](http://en.tradingview.com/symbols/NYMEX-HOJ2026/) |
General Diesel Price Outlook | Remains high [[^]](https://www.rfdtv.com/diesel-prices-fall-again-but-outlook-remains-high) |

**Informed participants signal high probability of heating oil price exceeding $3.549 USD/Gal**

Informed participants signal high **probability** of heating oil price exceeding **$3.549** USD/Gal. A prediction **market** tracking the "Diesel (heating) oil price on Apr 30, 2026 at 5pm EDT?" indicates a **75%** **probability** that the heating oil close price will be above **$3.549** USD/Gal on the specified date and time [[^]](https://simplefunctions.dev/markets/will-the-heating-oil-close-price-be-above-3549-usd-kalshi-kxhoilmon-26apr3017-t3.549). This particular **market** directly measures collective expectations regarding heating oil prices [[^]](https://simplefunctions.dev/markets/will-the-heating-oil-close-price-be-above-3549-usd-kalshi-kxhoilmon-26apr3017-t3.549).

Futures markets and expert sentiment reinforce a high long-term outlook. The futures **market** provides another key signal, with actively traded contracts for Ultra-Low Sulfur Diesel (ULSD) NY Harbor for April 2026, identified by the ticker HOJ26, on exchanges such as NYMEX [[^]](http://en.tradingview.com/symbols/NYMEX-HOJ2026/). These contracts reflect current **market** expectations for diesel prices by April 2026, as participants lock in prices or speculate on future movements [[^]](http://en.tradingview.com/symbols/NYMEX-HOJ2026/). General expert sentiment suggests that while diesel prices may fluctuate, the overall "outlook remains high" [[^]](https://www.rfdtv.com/diesel-prices-fall-again-but-outlook-remains-high), a perspective supported by specialized 2026 diesel price forecasts [[^]](https://dispatchrepublic.com/lessons-from-past-oil-price-shocks/) and detailed oil **market** reports for April 2026 from major energy analysis organizations [[^]](https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-**market**-report-april-2026).

## What Key Deadlines Impact Diesel Heating Oil Price Resolution?

Last Trading Day May 2026 NYMEX Heating Oil Futures | April 30, 2026 [[^]](http://www.cmegroup.com/markets/energy/refined-products/heating-oil.contractSpecs.html) |
EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report Release | Wednesday, April 29, 2026 [[^]](https://eia.gov/petroleum/supply/weekly/) |
API Weekly Crude Stock Data Release | Tuesday, April 28, 2026 [[^]](https://ca.investing.com/economic-calendar/api-weekly-crude-oil-stock-656) |

**Several key events will influence diesel oil prices near April 30, 2026**

Several key events will influence diesel oil prices near April 30, 2026. Significant price movement or resolution for Diesel (heating) oil prices around this date is anticipated due to major weekly petroleum status reports and the crucial last trading day for the May 2026 NYMEX Heating Oil futures contract. These activities are expected to generate substantial **market** movement and impact the commodity's price [[^]](https://eia.gov/petroleum/supply/weekly/).

Weekly petroleum reports provide crucial insights into supply and demand. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) plans to release its Weekly Petroleum Status Report (WPSR) on Wednesday, April 29, 2026 [[^]](https://eia.gov/petroleum/supply/weekly/). This report offers essential data on U.S. petroleum inventories, including distillate fuel oil stocks (such as heating oil and diesel), production, and demand for the week ending April 24, 2026 [[^]](https://eia.gov/petroleum/supply/weekly/). Prior to this, the American Petroleum Institute (API) typically issues its weekly crude stock data on Tuesday, April 28, 2026 [[^]](https://ca.investing.com/economic-calendar/api-weekly-crude-oil-stock-656), which provides an early indication of wider **market** trends. These reports are closely monitored for insights into supply-demand balances, which can cause considerable price volatility.

The May 2026 heating oil futures contract expires April 30. April 30, 2026, is designated as the Last Trading Day for the May 2026 NYMEX Heating Oil (ULSD) futures contract [[^]](http://www.cmegroup.com/markets/energy/refined-products/heating-oil.contractSpecs.html). According to CME Group contract specifications, the final trading day for Heating Oil futures occurs on the last business day of the month prior to delivery [[^]](http://www.cmegroup.com/markets/energy/refined-products/heating-oil.contractSpecs.html). As April 30, 2026, is a Thursday and the last business day of April, this deadline mandates that all open positions for the May 2026 contract must be closed or rolled over to a subsequent month's contract by 5:00 PM EDT. This compulsory action by traders and institutions typically results in increased volume and can lead to significant price fluctuations as positions are settled, directly affecting the **market** price at the resolution time.

## What Could Change the Odds

**Key takeaway.** Catalyst analysis unavailable.

## Key Dates & Catalysts

- **Expiration:** May 07, 2026
- **Closes:** April 30, 2026

## Decision-Flipping Events

- Catalyst analysis unavailable.

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## Historical Resolutions

No historical resolution data available for this series.

## Disclaimer

This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or trading advice.
Prediction markets involve risk of loss. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
We are not affiliated with Kalshi or any prediction market platform. Market data may be delayed or incomplete.

### Data Sources & Model Transparency

**Data Sources:** Octagon Deep Research aggregates information from multiple sources including news, filings, and market data.

**Freshness:** Analysis is generated periodically and may not reflect the latest developments. Verify critical information from primary sources.