# Brent crude oil price on May 01, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?

May 01, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT

Updated: April 30, 2026

Category: Commodities

Tags: Oil & Gas

HTML: /markets/commodities/oil-gas/brent-crude-oil-price-on-may-01-2026-at-5-00-pm-edt/

## Short Answer

**The model assigns meaningfully higher odds than the market for Brent crude oil to be above $79.99 on May 01, 2026, with a 98.8% model probability versus 86.0% market probability.** This **confidence** is rooted in expectations of a well-supplied **market** due to substantial OPEC+ spare capacity and non-OPEC+ supply growth.

## Key Claims (January 2026)

**- - OPEC+ maintains substantial effective spare production capacity throughout 2026.** - Significant non-OPEC+ oil supply growth is projected, especially from US deepwater.
- These supply factors ensure a well-supplied **market** despite healthy demand growth.
- The U.S. DOE targets purchasing 4 million barrels for the SPR in FY2026.
- Managed Money consistently held net-long Brent crude futures positions through March 2026.

### Why This Matters (GEO)

- AI agents extract claims, not arguments.
- Improves citation probability in summaries and answer cards.
- Enables fact stitching across multiple sources.

## Executive Verdict

**Key takeaway.** **Model**'s **98.8%** **probability** is 12.8pp above 86c **market**, amidst a well-supplied **market** mitigating upward price pressure.

### Who Wins and Why

| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| above $111.99 | 44.0% | 39.6% | Market higher by 4.4pp |
| above $103.99 | 93.0% | 91.8% | Market higher by 1.2pp |
| above $101.99 | 97.0% | 96.5% | Market higher by 0.5pp |

## Model vs Market

| Outcome | Market Probability | Octagon Model Probability |
| --- | --- | --- |
| above $111.99 | 44.0% | 39.6% |
| above $103.99 | 93.0% | 91.8% |
| above $101.99 | 97.0% | 96.5% |
| above $105.99 | 92.0% | 90.7% |
| above $99.99 | 97.0% | 96.5% |
| above $109.99 | 62.0% | 57.8% |
| above $115.99 | 15.0% | 15.4% |
| above $107.99 | 81.0% | 78.2% |
| above $117.99 | 7.0% | 15.4% |
| above $113.99 | 31.0% | 27.2% |
| above $97.99 | 97.0% | 96.5% |
| above $95.99 | 97.0% | 96.5% |
| above $119.99 | 4.0% | 15.4% |
| above $93.99 | 97.0% | 96.5% |
| above $121.99 | 4.0% | 15.4% |
| above $123.99 | 6.0% | 15.4% |
| above $131.99 | 1.0% | 12.8% |
| above $125.99 | 16.0% | 15.4% |
| above $129.99 | 18.0% | 15.4% |
| above $85.99 | 99.0% | 98.8% |
| above $91.99 | 98.0% | 97.6% |
| above $127.99 | 3.0% | 15.4% |
| above $83.99 | 99.0% | 98.8% |
| above $87.99 | 97.0% | 97.6% |
| above $79.99 | 86.0% | 98.8% |
| above $89.99 | 92.0% | 97.6% |
| above $135.99 | 13.0% | 11.0% |
| above $133.99 | 15.0% | 12.8% |
| above $81.99 | 99.0% | 98.8% |
| above $137.99 | 0.0% | 0.0% |

- Expiration: May 1, 2026

## Market Behavior & Price Dynamics

This market is forecasting whether the price of Brent crude oil will be above a specific threshold (T79.99) on May 1, 2026. The price action shows an overall downward trend, with the probability starting at 95.0% and currently trading at its low of 86.0%. The chart's history is characterized by a relatively tight trading range between 86.0% and a high of 99.0%. The most significant event was a sharp, 10 percentage point drop on April 27, 2026, which took the price from 96.0% down to its current level of 86.0%. This price point now acts as a key support level for the market, while the 99.0% peak serves as resistance.

The cause for the significant price drop on April 27th cannot be determined from the provided information, as no specific news or market developments were available. The move reflects a sudden negative shift in trader expectations, but the catalyst is unknown. Trading volume throughout the market's history is exceptionally low, with only 52 contracts traded in total. This low level of participation suggests that the price movements, including the significant drop, may not reflect a broad market consensus and could be the result of a small number of trades. The overall sentiment remains confident that the price will resolve above the threshold, but the downward trend and the recent sharp drop indicate that this conviction has weakened considerably from its peak.

## Significant Price Movements

### Outcome: above $87.99

#### 📈 April 28, 2026: 17.0pp spike

Price increased from 80.0% to 97.0%

**What happened:** No supporting research available for this anomaly.

#### 📉 April 26, 2026: 16.0pp drop

Price decreased from 96.0% to 80.0%

**What happened:** No supporting research available for this anomaly.

### Outcome: above $79.99

#### 📉 April 27, 2026: 10.0pp drop

Price decreased from 96.0% to 86.0%

**What happened:** No supporting research available for this anomaly.

## Contract Snapshot

The market resolves to YES if the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for the BRENTN6 crude oil contract is above $111.99 USD/Bbl at 5:00 PM EDT on May 1, 2026. Conversely, if the price is $111.99 USD/Bbl or below, the market resolves to NO. Settlement is verified from Pyth, with values rounded to two decimal places, and if specific data is unavailable at the designated time, the most recently published data will be used.

## Market Discussion

Limited public discussion available for this market.

## Market Data

| Contract | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | Last Price | Volume | Open Interest |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| above $101.99 | 96% | 97% | 96% | $19,384.59 | $8,778.15 |
| above $103.99 | 94% | 95% | 95% | $20,190.06 | $7,748.25 |
| above $105.99 | 92% | 93% | 92% | $19,089.5 | $9,973.97 |
| above $107.99 | 84% | 88% | 87% | $14,213.51 | $8,946.3 |
| above $109.99 | 66% | 69% | 69% | $16,730.43 | $7,659.66 |
| above $111.99 | 47% | 50% | 51% | $22,576.81 | $9,360.68 |
| above $113.99 | 34% | 36% | 38% | $10,126.81 | $3,731.9 |
| above $115.99 | 10% | 14% | 14% | $15,434.41 | $7,532.91 |
| above $117.99 | 8% | 9% | 8% | $10,039.6 | $4,626.64 |
| above $119.99 | 4% | 8% | 4% | $3,045 | $2,804 |
| above $121.99 | 4% | 14% | 4% | $1,179.81 | $1,050.81 |
| above $123.99 | 2% | 15% | 6% | $965.89 | $965.89 |
| above $125.99 | 2% | 13% | 16% | $620.82 | $610.82 |
| above $127.99 | 2% | 3% | 3% | $327.68 | $318.68 |
| above $129.99 | 1% | 2% | 1% | $683.22 | $683.22 |
| above $131.99 | 1% | 2% | 1% | $848.39 | $533.39 |
| above $133.99 | 0% | 2% | 15% | $29 | $29 |
| above $135.99 | 0% | 2% | 13% | $30 | $30 |
| above $137.99 | 0% | 1% | 1% | $100 | $100 |
| above $79.99 | 99% | 100% | 86% | $52 | $51 |
| above $81.99 | 99% | 100% | 99% | $1 | $1 |
| above $83.99 | 99% | 100% | 99% | $241 | $121 |
| above $85.99 | 99% | 100% | 99% | $499 | $344 |
| above $87.99 | 97% | 99% | 97% | $104 | $102 |
| above $89.99 | 96% | 99% | 92% | $51 | $51 |
| above $91.99 | 97% | 99% | 98% | $329.89 | $326.09 |
| above $93.99 | 96% | 98% | 97% | $1,200.14 | $898.9 |
| above $95.99 | 97% | 98% | 97% | $6,225.91 | $3,541.97 |
| above $97.99 | 98% | 99% | 97% | $7,302.5 | $3,984.84 |
| above $99.99 | 94% | 97% | 97% | $17,281.48 | $5,613.95 |

## What is OPEC+ Effective Spare Production Capacity for 2026?

OPEC+ Effective Spare Capacity | 5.0 million barrels per day (mb/d) (IEA Q1 2026 Oil Market Reports) [[^]](https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-market-report-february-2026), [[^]](http://iea.org/reports/oil-market-report-march-2026), [[^]](https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-market-report-january-2026) |
Forecast Year | 2026 (IEA Q1 2026 Oil Market Reports) [[^]](https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-market-report-february-2026), [[^]](http://iea.org/reports/oil-market-report-march-2026), [[^]](https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-market-report-january-2026) |
Forecast Consistency | Consistent across January, February, and March 2026 reports (IEA) [[^]](https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-market-report-february-2026), [[^]](http://iea.org/reports/oil-market-report-march-2026), [[^]](https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-market-report-january-2026) |

**The International Energy Agency (IEA) consistently forecast 5.0 mb/d OPEC+ effective spare capacity for 2026**

The International Energy Agency (IEA) consistently forecast 5.0 mb/d OPEC+ effective spare capacity for 2026. The IEA projected OPEC+ effective spare production capacity to be approximately 5.0 million barrels per day (mb/d) for the year 2026 in its Q1 2026 Oil **Market** Reports [[^]](https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-**market**-report-february-2026), [[^]](http://iea.org/reports/oil-**market**-report-march-2026), [[^]](https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-**market**-report-january-2026). This forecast remained stable across the IEA’s analyses published in January, February, and March 2026 [[^]](https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-**market**-report-february-2026), [[^]](http://iea.org/reports/oil-**market**-report-march-2026), [[^]](https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-**market**-report-january-2026). The IEA defines effective spare capacity as crude oil production that can be brought online within 30 days and sustained for at least 90 days.

This capacity is vital for global oil **market** stability and supply security. The IEA considers this significant 5.0 mb/d buffer crucial for maintaining global oil **market** stability, offering a substantial cushion against potential supply disruptions [[^]](http://iea.org/reports/oil-**market**-report-march-2026). The unwavering projection throughout the first quarter of 2026 underscores the IEA's assessment of a steady and available capacity from key OPEC+ members, primarily Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Iraq, to address unforeseen demand increases or counteract supply outages [[^]](https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-**market**-report-february-2026), [[^]](https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-**market**-report-january-2026).

## What is the projected non-OPEC+ oil production from new US deepwater projects?

New US Deepwater Peak Production | 150,000 bpd (Rystad Energy) [[^]](https://www.rystadenergy.com/insights/us-deepwater-production-set-for-all-time-highs-following-active-2025) |
Ballymore Project Peak Production | 75,000 bpd (Rystad Energy) [[^]](https://www.rystadenergy.com/insights/us-deepwater-production-set-for-all-time-highs-following-active-2025) |
Overall Non-OPEC+ Supply Growth 2025 | 1.5 million bpd (Wood Mackenzie) [[^]](https://www.woodmac.com/news/opinion/oil-and-refined-products-in-2025-a-commodity-traders-guide/) |

**US deepwater projects will add 150,000 bpd by early 2025**

US deepwater projects will add 150,000 bpd by early 2025. New, non-OPEC+ upstream projects in US deepwater are projected to contribute a peak production of at least 150,000 barrels per day (bpd), with first oil expected between Q4 2024 and Q1 2025. Specifically, Chevron's Ballymore project is scheduled to commence production in Q4 2024, contributing a peak of 75,000 bpd. Following this, the Anchor project, operated jointly by Chevron and Shell, is slated for first oil in Q1 2025, also anticipated to reach a peak production of 75,000 bpd. These two projects collectively account for 150,000 bpd in combined peak production from new facilities within this timeframe [[^]](https://www.rystadenergy.com/insights/us-deepwater-production-set-for-all-time-highs-following-active-2025).

Wood Mackenzie anticipates significant non-OPEC+ supply growth in 2025. More broadly, Wood Mackenzie forecasts non-OPEC+ supply growth of approximately 1.5 million bpd in 2025. This growth is primarily driven by a combination of new projects coming online and ramp-ups from existing production, with major contributions expected from the US, Brazil, Guyana, and Canada [[^]](https://www.woodmac.com/news/opinion/oil-and-refined-products-in-2025-a-commodity-traders-guide/).

## What Was China's Apparent Oil Demand Growth in December 2025?

China Crude Oil Production (Dec 2025) | 17.58 million tons, up 2.1% year-over-year [[^]](https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/202601/t20260120_1962355.html) |
China Crude Oil Imports (Dec 2025) | 48.36 million metric tons, up 1.5% year-over-year [[^]](https://today.reuters.com/business/energy/chinas-2025-oil-imports-december-inflows-both-hit-record-highs-2026-01-14/) |
China Apparent Oil Demand Growth (Dec 2025) | Approximately 1.7% year-over-year [[^]](https://today.reuters.com/business/energy/chinas-2025-oil-imports-december-inflows-both-hit-record-highs-2026-01-14/) |

**Direct reports on China's Q4 2025 apparent oil demand growth are unavailable**

Direct reports on China's Q4 2025 apparent oil demand growth are unavailable. Specific year-over-year growth rates for China's apparent oil demand for the entire fourth quarter of 2025 (October-December) have not been directly published by China's National Bureau of Statistics or customs data in the provided sources. However, data for December 2025, a key month within Q4, offers insights. China's National Bureau of Statistics reported December 2025 crude oil production reached 17.58 million tons, marking a **2.1%** year-over-year increase [[^]](https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/202601/t20260120_1962355.html). Concurrently, customs data indicated crude oil imports for December 2025 totaled 48.36 million metric tons, an increase of **1.5%** compared to the previous year [[^]](https://today.reuters.com/business/energy/chinas-2025-oil-imports-december-inflows-both-hit-record-highs-2026-01-14/).

December 2025 apparent oil demand grew by an estimated **1.7%**. To estimate the year-over-year growth rate for apparent oil demand in December 2025, domestic production (17.58 million tons [[^]](https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/202601/t20260120_1962355.html)) and imports (48.36 million metric tons [[^]](https://today.reuters.com/business/energy/chinas-2025-oil-imports-december-inflows-both-hit-record-highs-2026-01-14/)) were combined. This calculation resulted in an apparent demand of approximately 65.94 million tons for December 2025. By estimating the corresponding figures for December 2024 based on the reported growth rates of production and imports, the year-over-year growth rate for China's apparent oil demand in December 2025 is calculated to be approximately **1.7%**.

## Is There an Average Daily SPR Purchase Target for Early FY 2026?

FY 2026 SPR Purchase Target | 4 million barrels (total fiscal year) [[^]](https://www.energy.gov/sites/default/files/2025-06/doe-fy-2026-vol-3.pdf) |
FY 2026 Purchase Funding | $150 million from SPR sales proceeds [[^]](https://www.energy.gov/sites/default/files/2025-06/doe-fy-2026-vol-3.pdf) |
H1 FY 2026 Avg Daily Purchase Rate | Not explicitly detailed [[^]](https://www.energy.gov/sites/default/files/2025-06/doe-fy-2026-vol-3.pdf) |

**The U.S**

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) officially targets purchasing 4 million barrels for the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) in fiscal year 2026. This acquisition is funded by an allocation of **$150** million from SPR sales proceeds, as outlined in the DOE's FY 2026 Congressional Budget Justification [[^]](https://www.energy.gov/sites/default/files/2025-06/doe-fy-2026-vol-3.pdf). The DOE plans to execute these purchases through small-volume solicitations over time, aiming to avoid significant **market** impacts rather than utilizing large, single transactions [[^]](https://www.energy.gov/sites/default/files/2025-06/doe-fy-2026-vol-3.pdf).

However, a specific daily purchase rate for early FY26 is not detailed in official documentation. The DOE's official budget justification for fiscal year 2026 does not explicitly state a target for the average daily purchase rate specifically for the first half of fiscal year 2026, which spans October 2025 to March 2026 [[^]](https://www.energy.gov/sites/default/files/2025-06/doe-fy-2026-vol-3.pdf). Although the 4 million barrel target applies to the entire fiscal year, a detailed allocation or a specific daily rate for this initial six-month period of FY26 is not provided in the available official documentation [[^]](https://www.energy.gov/sites/default/files/2025-06/doe-fy-2026-vol-3.pdf).

## What were Managed Money's Brent crude net-long positions in March 2026?

Average Net-Long Position | 326,540 contracts (derived from analysis of weekly COT reports [[^]](https://www.home.saxo/content/articles/commodities/cot-on-forex-and-commodities---week-to-17-march-2026-23032026)) |
Net-Long Position (March 3, 2026) | 308,000 contracts [[^]](https://investmacro.com/2026/03/cot-energy-charts-speculator-bets-led-by-wti-natural-gas-brent-crude-oil/) |
Net-Long Position (March 31, 2026) | 342,100 contracts [[^]](https://investmacro.com/2026/03/cot-energy-charts-speculator-bets-led-by-wti-natural-gas-brent-crude-oil/) |

**The 'Managed Money' category consistently held a net-long position throughout March 2026**

The 'Managed Money' category consistently held a net-long position throughout March 2026. In ICE Brent crude futures and options, as detailed in the weekly Commitments of Traders (COT) reports, the average net-long position for the 'Managed Money' category during March 2026 was calculated to be 326,540 contracts. These figures are derived from an analysis of the weekly Commitments of Traders reports covering positions as of the respective Tuesdays in March 2026 [[^]](https://www.home.saxo/content/articles/commodities/cot-on-forex-and-commodities---week-to-17-march-2026-23032026).

Net-long positions for Managed Money increased steadily in March. For the week ending March 3, 2026, speculators held approximately 308,000 net-long contracts [[^]](https://investmacro.com/2026/03/cot-energy-charts-speculator-bets-led-by-wti-natural-gas-brent-crude-oil/). This figure saw an increase in the subsequent week, reaching an estimated 318,500 contracts by March 10, 2026 [[^]](https://investmacro.com/2026/03/cot-energy-charts-speculator-bets-led-by-wti-natural-gas-brent-crude-oil/). The upward trend continued, with 'Managed Money' holding about 328,700 contracts for the week ending March 17, 2026 [[^]](https://www.home.saxo/content/articles/commodities/cot-on-forex-and-commodities---week-to-17-march-2026-23032026). By March 24, 2026, their net-long bets further increased to roughly 335,400 contracts [[^]](https://investmacro.com/2026/03/cot-energy-charts-speculator-bets-led-by-wti-natural-gas-brent-crude-oil/), concluding the month with approximately 342,100 net-long contracts for the week ending March 31, 2026 [[^]](https://investmacro.com/2026/03/cot-energy-charts-speculator-bets-led-by-wti-natural-gas-brent-crude-oil/).

## What Could Change the Odds

**Key takeaway.** Catalyst analysis unavailable.

## Key Dates & Catalysts

- **Expiration:** May 08, 2026
- **Closes:** May 01, 2026

## Decision-Flipping Events

- Catalyst analysis unavailable.

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## Historical Resolutions

**Historical Resolutions:** 20 markets in this series

**Outcomes:** 0 resolved YES, 20 resolved NO

**Recent resolutions:**

- KXBRENTW-26APR2417-T149.99: NO (Apr 24, 2026)
- KXBRENTW-26APR2417-T147.99: NO (Apr 24, 2026)
- KXBRENTW-26APR2417-T145.99: NO (Apr 24, 2026)
- KXBRENTW-26APR2417-T143.99: NO (Apr 24, 2026)
- KXBRENTW-26APR2417-T141.99: NO (Apr 24, 2026)

## Disclaimer

This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or trading advice.
Prediction markets involve risk of loss. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
We are not affiliated with Kalshi or any prediction market platform. Market data may be delayed or incomplete.

### Data Sources & Model Transparency

**Data Sources:** Octagon Deep Research aggregates information from multiple sources including news, filings, and market data.

**Freshness:** Analysis is generated periodically and may not reflect the latest developments. Verify critical information from primary sources.

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