# Silver price on Apr 17, 2026 at 5pm EDT?

Apr 17, 2026 at 5pm EDT

Updated: April 17, 2026

Category: Commodities

Tags: Metals

HTML: /markets/commodities/metals/silver-price-on-apr-17-2026-at-5pm-edt/

## Short Answer

**Key takeaway.** Both the **model** and the **market** expect the silver price to be above **$58.99** on April 17, 2026, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.

## Key Claims (January 2026)

**- - Major banks forecast sustained positive US 10-year real yields.** - Industrial silver demand is projected to see a future drop.
- Next-gen solar will not cause a substantial silver supply deficit.
- Mexico's proposed open-pit mining ban poses significant supply risk.
- Very low **probability** of significant Fed rate cuts by Q1 2026.

### Why This Matters (GEO)

- AI agents extract claims, not arguments.
- Improves citation probability in summaries and answer cards.
- Enables fact stitching across multiple sources.

## Executive Verdict

**Key takeaway.** **Model**'s **98.8%** **probability** is 0.2 percentage points below the 99c **market** price, reflecting projected downward price pressure.

### Who Wins and Why

| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| above $79.99 | 39.0% | 35.1% | Market higher by 3.9pp |
| above $80.99 | 27.0% | 23.8% | Market higher by 3.2pp |
| above $78.99 | 69.0% | 65.3% | Market higher by 3.7pp |

## Model vs Market

| Outcome | Market Probability | Octagon Model Probability |
| --- | --- | --- |
| above $79.99 | 39.0% | 35.1% |
| above $80.99 | 27.0% | 23.8% |
| above $78.99 | 69.0% | 65.3% |
| above $81.99 | 7.0% | 7.7% |
| above $76.99 | 86.0% | 83.9% |
| above $77.99 | 74.0% | 70.7% |
| above $75.99 | 95.0% | 93.9% |
| above $82.99 | 7.0% | 7.6% |
| above $84.99 | 9.0% | 7.4% |
| above $83.99 | 5.0% | 7.5% |
| above $71.99 | 97.0% | 96.4% |
| above $72.99 | 95.0% | 94.2% |
| above $65.99 | 99.0% | 98.1% |
| above $68.99 | 99.0% | 97.8% |
| above $66.99 | 99.0% | 98.0% |
| above $67.99 | 99.0% | 97.9% |
| above $69.99 | 99.0% | 97.7% |
| above $58.99 | 99.0% | 98.8% |
| above $85.99 | 7.0% | 6.0% |
| above $73.99 | 94.0% | 94.1% |
| above $59.99 | 99.0% | 98.7% |
| above $60.99 | 99.0% | 98.6% |
| above $61.99 | 99.0% | 98.5% |
| above $62.99 | 99.0% | 98.4% |
| above $63.99 | 99.0% | 98.3% |
| above $64.99 | 99.0% | 98.2% |
| above $70.99 | 0.0% | 96.5% |
| above $74.99 | 0.0% | 94.0% |
| above $86.99 | 0.0% | 0.4% |
| above $87.99 | 0.0% | 0.4% |
| above $88.99 | 0.0% | 0.4% |
| above $89.99 | 0.0% | 0.3% |
| above $90.99 | 0.0% | 0.3% |
| above $91.99 | 0.0% | 0.3% |
| above $92.99 | 0.0% | 0.3% |
| above $93.99 | 0.0% | 0.3% |
| above $94.99 | 0.0% | 0.2% |
| above $95.99 | 0.0% | 0.2% |
| above $96.99 | 0.0% | 0.2% |
| above $97.99 | 0.0% | 0.2% |

- Expiration: April 17, 2026

## Market Behavior & Price Dynamics

This prediction market has exhibited minimal price volatility, trading within a very narrow band between 95.0% and 99.0% since its inception. The overall price trend is sideways, with the most notable movement occurring early in the trading period when the probability shifted from a 95.0% open to 99.0%. Since that initial adjustment, the price has remained static at this upper limit. This price action establishes a clear support level at 95.0% and a resistance level at 99.0%, where the market is currently trading.

The trading volume for this market is exceptionally low, with a total of only 10 contracts traded. This light volume suggests limited participation and liquidity. While the price held steady after its initial rise, the lack of significant trading activity indicates that the current 99.0% probability has not been heavily tested or reinforced by a large number of participants. The stability could reflect a lack of new information or a general consensus among the few active traders. No specific context was provided to explain the initial jump in probability.

Overall, the chart indicates a very strong, albeit thinly traded, market sentiment. The consistent price at the high end of the range suggests that the few active participants have a very high degree of confidence that the market will resolve to YES. The market is pricing this outcome as a near certainty. However, the extremely low volume suggests this conviction is not widespread, and the price could be sensitive to new participants or information.

## Contract Snapshot

This market resolves to "Yes" if the 1-minute silver candlestick's close price at 5 PM EDT on April 17, 2026, is above $78.99 USD/t.oz; otherwise, it resolves to "No." Settlement uses data from Pyth - Silver, rounded to two decimal places, where the close price is the value at the end of the preceding one-minute interval, and the most recent data is used if specific data is unavailable.

## Market Discussion

Limited public discussion available for this market.

## Market Data

| Contract | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | Last Price | Volume | Open Interest |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| above $58.99 | 99% | 100% | 99% | $10 | $10 |
| above $59.99 | 99% | 100% | 99% | $2 | $2 |
| above $60.99 | 99% | 100% | 99% | $1 | $1 |
| above $61.99 | 99% | 100% | 99% | $1 | $1 |
| above $62.99 | 99% | 100% | 99% | $1 | $1 |
| above $63.99 | 99% | 100% | 99% | $1 | $1 |
| above $64.99 | 99% | 100% | 99% | $1 | $1 |
| above $65.99 | 99% | 100% | 99% | $13 | $12 |
| above $66.99 | 99% | 100% | 99% | $11 | $10 |
| above $67.99 | 99% | 100% | 99% | $11 | $10 |
| above $68.99 | 99% | 100% | 99% | $12 | $10 |
| above $69.99 | 99% | 100% | 99% | $11 | $10 |
| above $70.99 | 98% | 99% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| above $71.99 | 98% | 99% | 97% | $20 | $20 |
| above $72.99 | 98% | 99% | 95% | $20 | $20 |
| above $73.99 | 98% | 99% | 94% | $4 | $4 |
| above $74.99 | 96% | 97% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| above $75.99 | 95% | 96% | 95% | $252.91 | $163.02 |
| above $76.99 | 93% | 96% | 86% | $1,014.77 | $434.54 |
| above $77.99 | 80% | 86% | 74% | $990.46 | $493.93 |
| above $78.99 | 59% | 62% | 69% | $1,801.94 | $1,249.68 |
| above $79.99 | 34% | 38% | 39% | $2,285.97 | $1,960.21 |
| above $80.99 | 17% | 19% | 27% | $1,868.61 | $1,135.8 |
| above $81.99 | 6% | 7% | 7% | $1,155.07 | $285.07 |
| above $82.99 | 2% | 3% | 7% | $173 | $133 |
| above $83.99 | 0% | 2% | 5% | $39 | $27 |
| above $84.99 | 0% | 2% | 9% | $118 | $100 |
| above $85.99 | 0% | 2% | 7% | $8 | $8 |
| above $86.99 | 0% | 2% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| above $87.99 | 0% | 2% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| above $88.99 | 0% | 2% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| above $89.99 | 0% | 2% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| above $90.99 | 0% | 1% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| above $91.99 | 0% | 1% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| above $92.99 | 0% | 1% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| above $93.99 | 0% | 1% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| above $94.99 | 0% | 1% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| above $95.99 | 0% | 1% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| above $96.99 | 0% | 1% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| above $97.99 | 0% | 1% | 0% | $0 | $0 |

## What Are US 10-Year Real Yield Forecasts for 2025-2026?

Goldman Sachs US 10-Year Real Yield | 1.55% (year-end 2025) [[^]](https://am.gs.com/cms-assets/gsam-app/documents/insights/en/2025/us-market-pulse_dec2025.pdf) |
Goldman Sachs US 10-Year Real Yield | 1.80% (year-end 2026) [[^]](https://am.gs.com/cms-assets/gsam-app/documents/insights/en/2025/us-market-pulse_dec2025.pdf) |
JPMorgan Long-Term Real Yield | 1.00% (average over next 10 years) [[^]](https://assets.jpmprivatebank.com/content/dam/jpm-pb-aem/global/en/documents/JPM56789-LTCMA-2026.pdf) |

**Major commodity banks forecast positive US 10-year real yields for 2025-2026**

Major commodity banks forecast positive US 10-year real yields for 2025-2026. Current forecasts from prominent financial institutions project the US 10-year real yield to remain positive throughout 2025 and 2026, with estimates ranging from approximately **1.00%** to **1.80%**. None of the available forecasts from Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, or Citi indicate a sustained period below -**1.5%**, which is a key historical driver for precious metal bull markets.

Goldman Sachs and Citi provide specific positive real yield projections. Goldman Sachs specifically projects the US 10-year nominal Treasury yield at **3.85%** at year-end 2025 and **4.00%** at year-end 2026. Considering CPI inflation forecasts of **2.3%** and **2.2%** for the respective periods, this implies a US 10-year real yield of approximately **1.55%** at year-end 2025 and **1.80%** at year-end 2026 [[^]](https://am.gs.com/cms-assets/gsam-app/documents/insights/en/2025/us-**market**-pulse_dec2025.pdf). Citi's 2025 Wealth Outlook projects the US 10-year Treasury nominal yield between **3.50%** and **4.00%**, with US inflation between **2.5%** and **3.0%**, implying a real yield in the range of **0.5%** to **1.5%** over a 12-18 month horizon [[^]](https://www.docs.citi.com/WealthOCIO/Outlook2025AAGWL.pdf).

JPMorgan's assumptions also indicate positive real yields over time. JPMorgan's Long-Term Capital **Market** Assumptions (LTCMA) for 2026 estimate the US Real 10-Year Bond Yield to average **1.00%** over the next 10 years [[^]](https://assets.jpmprivatebank.com/content/dam/jpm-pb-aem/global/en/documents/JPM56789-LTCMA-2026.pdf). While JPMorgan economists also expect the 10-year nominal Treasury yield to end 2026 at **4.25%** [[^]](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-12-02/jpmorgan-says-us-yields-will-rise-as-rate-cut-expectations-wane), specific year-end real yields for 2025 or 2026 are not explicitly detailed in the provided sources, though they generally expect US real rates to rise further from current levels [[^]](https://www.jpmorgan.com/insights/markets-and-economy/top-**market**-takeaways/tmt-october-twenty-four-twenty-five). The collective forecasts from these major financial institutions for the US 10-year real yield for both 2025 and 2026 remain positive and consistently above the -**1.5%** threshold. These projections therefore do not suggest a sustained period below -**1.5%**, which is historically recognized as a significant driver for precious metal bull markets.

## Will Silver Market Deficit Exceed 250 Million Ounces in 2025?

Global Silver Deficit 2025 | 215 million ounces [[^]](https://silverinstitute.org/global-silver-market-forecast-to-remain-in-a-sizeable-deficit-in-2025) |
TOPCon Silver Reduction | Factor of ten [[^]](https://www.ise.fraunhofer.de/en/press-media/news/2026/silver-consumption-in-topcon-solar-cells-reduced-by-factor-ten.html) |
Industrial Silver Demand Drop 2025 | 19% [[^]](https://www.pv-magazine.com/2026/04/15/silver-demand-from-pv-industry-expected-to-drop-19-this-year/) |

**Next-generation solar technologies will not create a substantial silver supply deficit**

Next-generation solar technologies will not create a substantial silver supply deficit. Updated technology roadmaps confirm that projected silver consumption per cell for next-generation TOPCon and HJT solar technologies is unlikely to cause an industrial demand forecast exceeding a 250 million ounce supply deficit for 2025. Research from Fraunhofer ISE indicates that silver consumption in TOPCon solar cells can be reduced by a factor of ten through the implementation of new contact firing processes [[^]](https://www.ise.fraunhofer.de/en/press-media/news/2026/silver-consumption-in-topcon-solar-cells-reduced-by-factor-ten.html). Major manufacturers are incorporating new technologies and processes that are expected to lead to a significant drop in silver usage per cell [[^]](https://www.pv-tech.org/silver-bullet-for-precious-metal-n-type-solar-cells/). These advancements, particularly in n-type cell technologies, contribute to a reduction in overall silver demand from the photovoltaic (PV) industry [[^]](https://www.pv-magazine.com/2026/04/15/silver-demand-from-pv-industry-expected-to-drop-19-this-year/).

The Silver Institute projects a deficit below the critical threshold. The Silver Institute's official forecast for 2025 anticipates a global silver **market** deficit of 215 million ounces [[^]](https://silverinstitute.org/global-silver-**market**-forecast-to-remain-in-a-sizeable-deficit-in-2025), a figure derived from their World Silver Survey 2025 [[^]](https://silverinstitute.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/World_Silver_Survey-2025.pdf). The institute explicitly notes that while industrial demand from the photovoltaic sector continues to grow, "advancements in silver-saving technologies are mitigating the increase in overall consumption per cell" [[^]](https://silverinstitute.org/global-silver-**market**-forecast-to-remain-in-a-sizeable-deficit-in-2025). Consequently, The Silver Institute anticipates industrial silver demand to drop by **19%** in 2025, largely due to these reduced usage rates in PV cells [[^]](https://www.pv-magazine.com/2026/04/15/silver-demand-from-pv-industry-expected-to-drop-19-this-year/). Therefore, the anticipated deficit of 215 million ounces for 2025 falls below the 250 million ounce threshold.

## Can We Determine Current Silver Inventory to Futures Open Interest Ratio?

Registered Silver Inventories | Data not provided in research [[^]](https://ycharts.com/indicators/comex_silver_futures_open_interest) |
Active Silver Futures Open Interest | Data not provided in research [[^]](https://ycharts.com/indicators/comex_silver_futures_open_interest) |
Current Ratio | Cannot be determined without provided data [[^]](https://ycharts.com/indicators/comex_silver_futures_open_interest) |

**Specific data is unavailable to calculate the silver inventory to open interest ratio [[^]](https://ycharts.com/indicators/comex_silver_futures_open_interest)**

Specific data is unavailable to calculate the silver inventory to open interest ratio [[^]](https://ycharts.com/indicators/comex_silver_futures_open_interest). The provided research lacks the specific facts, data points, and statistics required to determine the ratio of deliverable 'Registered' silver inventories in COMEX-approved warehouses to the total open interest of active silver futures contracts [[^]](https://www.silveroftruth.com/blog/comex-inventory-charts-2026-02-14). To calculate the current ratio, specific figures for both the 'Registered' silver inventories and the total open interest would be necessary, but these data points are not present in the research provided [[^]](https://www.financemagnates.com/trending/how-high-can-silver-go-in-2026-as-comex-inventory-tightens-new-silver-price-predictions-from-bofa-citi-and-reuters-target-300/). Projections and historical analysis are impossible without the required data [[^]](https://www.richdadretirement.com/silver-squeeze/comex-silver-inventory). The absence of these critical figures makes it impossible to project the ratio's potential movement below the **25%** threshold in 2025 [[^]](https://farmonaut.com/mining/comex-silver-registered-inventory-february-27-2026-update). Furthermore, the research cannot confirm the historical context of the **25%** threshold preceding major short squeezes without the necessary statistical information [[^]](https://www.silverdata.io/inventories).

## What Legislative Changes Could Impact Global Silver Supply by 2026?

Mexico Mining Ban Proposal | Advanced in Mexican Congress in 2024, potential significant impact on silver production [[^]](https://www.kitco.com/news/off-the-wire/2024-08-16/proposal-ban-open-pit-mining-advances-mexican-congress) |
China Silver Export Restrictions | Expected by end of 2025, implemented in 2026 (similar to rare earths) [[^]](https://crossdockinsights.com/p/top-10-silver-producing-countries-in-the-world) |
Peru Legislative Changes | No pending legislative changes before 2026 that would remove over 50 million ounces from supply [[^]](https://finvizio.com/Mexico-Proposed-Mining-Ban/) |

**Mexico's proposed open-pit mining ban poses significant supply risk**

Mexico's proposed open-pit mining ban poses significant supply risk. A significant legislative change is underway in Mexico, with a proposal to ban open-pit mining advancing in the Mexican Congress [[^]](https://www.kitco.com/news/off-the-wire/2024-08-16/proposal-ban-open-pit-mining-advances-mexican-congress). This proposal, which progressed in February 2024, has caused concern within the Mexican mining sector [[^]](https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/mexican-mining-sector-balks-plan-ban-open-pit-mines-2024-02-15/). While the exact impact on silver production in ounces is not yet specified in available sources, a nationwide ban on open-pit mining in one of the world's top silver-producing countries could have a substantial effect on global supply [[^]](https://finvizio.com/Mexico-Proposed-Mining-Ban/). The mining sector is currently challenging the proposal, highlighting ongoing uncertainty [[^]](https://mexicobusiness.news/mining/news/uncertainty-ambiguous-openness-2025-mining).

China plans export restrictions; Peru has no major impending changes. China, another major global silver producer, is anticipated to introduce restrictions on silver exports by the end of 2025, with these controls expected to be implemented in 2026 [[^]](https://crossdockinsights.com/p/top-10-silver-producing-countries-in-the-world). These impending restrictions are described as mirroring China's strategy for rare earths, suggesting a significant tightening of the export **market** [[^]](https://www.cnbc.com/2025/12/31/china-silver-export-controls-2026-us-economy-prices-rare-earths-critical-minerals-xag-metals.html). Although Chinese silver exports reached a 16-year high in 2025 despite control fears, the planned controls for 2026 are expected to alter this trend and could have a considerable impact on global silver availability [[^]](https://longbridge.com/en/news/273305846). In contrast, the available research does not detail any specific pending legislative or regulatory changes in Peru before 2026 that would impose new export tariffs, environmental restrictions, or nationalization policies with the potential to reduce global annual supply by over 50 million ounces.

## What is the Implied Probability of Fed Rate Cuts or QE by Q1 2026?

Implied Probability 150+ bps Rate Cut by Q1 2026 | Very low (Based on Fed Funds futures, Eurodollar futures, and prediction market data) [[^]](https://rateprobability.com/fed) |
Implied Probability Aggressive Rate Cut April 2026 | Near certainty against (Prediction market analysis) [[^]](https://www.polymarketintel.com/polymarket-predicts-near-certainty-against-aggressive-fed-rate-cut-in-april-2026/) |
Implied Probability QE Re-launch by Q1 2026 | Cannot be determined from available sources (Fed Rate Odds [[^]](https://rateprobability.com/fed), CME Group [[^]](https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/stirs/30-day-federal-fund.quotes.html), Barchart [[^]](https://www.barchart.com/futures/quotes/ZQH26/comparison), Federal Reserve H.15 [[^]](http://federalreserve.gov/releases/H15/default.htm), TradingView [[^]](http://tradingview.com/symbols/CBOT-ZQH2026/), FOMC minutes [[^]](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcminutes20260318.htm)) |

**The implied probability of the Federal Reserve cutting the Fed Funds Rate by at least 150 basis points before the end of Q1 2026 is assessed as very low**

The implied **probability** of the Federal Reserve cutting the Fed Funds Rate by at least 150 basis points before the end of Q1 2026 is assessed as very low. This conclusion is drawn from an analysis of Fed Funds futures **market** data, the Eurodollar futures curve, and various prediction **market** data. Prediction **market** analysis indicates a near certainty against an aggressive Federal Reserve rate cut occurring in April 2026 [[^]](https://www.polymarketintel.com/polymarket-predicts-near-certainty-against-aggressive-fed-rate-cut-in-april-2026/), which strongly suggests a similarly low or negligible **probability** for such a substantial rate reduction occurring prior to or during Q1 2026, as Q1 2026 concludes at the end of March 2026.

Specific futures contracts do not directly quantify cumulative rate cut **probability** by Q1 2026. While other futures contracts like the 30-Day Federal Funds futures for March '26 (ZQH26) and June '26 (ZQM26) are available for **market** expectations, they do not directly provide a cumulative **probability** for a 150+ basis point reduction by the end of Q1 2026 [[^]](https://www.barchart.com/futures/quotes/ZQH26/comparison).

No implied **probability** for QE re-launch can be determined from the available information. The provided web research and available sources do not explicitly quantify an implied **probability** for the official re-launch of a Quantitative Easing (QE) program before the end of Q1 2026. Resources consulted, including Fed Rate Odds [[^]](https://rateprobability.com/fed), CME Group futures quotes [[^]](https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/stirs/30-day-federal-fund.quotes.html), Barchart data [[^]](https://www.barchart.com/futures/quotes/ZQH26/comparison), Federal Reserve H.15 releases [[^]](http://federalreserve.gov/releases/H15/default.htm), TradingView charts [[^]](http://tradingview.com/symbols/CBOT-ZQH2026/), and FOMC minutes [[^]](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcminutes20260318.htm), do not offer this specific **probability**. It is important to note that discussions surrounding the Federal Reserve ending Quantitative Tightening (QT) [[^]](https://polymarket.com/**market**/will-fed-end-qt-before-may) are distinct from the initiation of a new QE program.

## What Could Change the Odds

**Key takeaway.** Catalyst analysis unavailable.

## Key Dates & Catalysts

- **Expiration:** April 24, 2026
- **Closes:** April 17, 2026

## Decision-Flipping Events

- Catalyst analysis unavailable.

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## Historical Resolutions

**Historical Resolutions:** 20 markets in this series

**Outcomes:** 3 resolved YES, 17 resolved NO

**Recent resolutions:**

- KXSILVERW-26APR1017-T91.99: NO (Apr 10, 2026)
- KXSILVERW-26APR1017-T90.99: NO (Apr 10, 2026)
- KXSILVERW-26APR1017-T89.99: NO (Apr 10, 2026)
- KXSILVERW-26APR1017-T88.99: NO (Apr 10, 2026)
- KXSILVERW-26APR1017-T87.99: NO (Apr 10, 2026)

## Disclaimer

This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or trading advice.
Prediction markets involve risk of loss. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
We are not affiliated with Kalshi or any prediction market platform. Market data may be delayed or incomplete.

### Data Sources & Model Transparency

**Data Sources:** Octagon Deep Research aggregates information from multiple sources including news, filings, and market data.

**Freshness:** Analysis is generated periodically and may not reflect the latest developments. Verify critical information from primary sources.