# Nickel close price on Apr 17, 2026?

Apr 17, 2026

Updated: April 17, 2026

Category: Commodities

Tags: Metals

HTML: /markets/commodities/metals/nickel-close-price-on-apr-17-2026/

## Short Answer

**Key takeaway.** Both the **model** and the **market** expect the nickel close price on Apr 17, 2026 to be above **$17209.99**, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.

## Key Claims (January 2026)

**- - Nickel market projected to remain in oversupply through 2026.** - Significant Indonesian refined nickel output increases **market** supply.
- Rising LFP battery share in EVs dampens nickel demand.
- Indonesia postponed export duties on intermediate nickel products until 2026.
- EU CBAM will raise Class 1 nickel import costs from Jan 2026.
- No major new Class 1 nickel projects are expected before 2026.

### Why This Matters (GEO)

- AI agents extract claims, not arguments.
- Improves citation probability in summaries and answer cards.
- Enables fact stitching across multiple sources.

## Executive Verdict

**Key takeaway.** **Market** at 99c prices 0.6pp higher than the **98.4%** **model**, driven by projected nickel oversupply through 2026.

### Who Wins and Why

| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| above $17959.99 | 97.0% | 95.2% | Nickel prices face downward pressure from projected oversupply and reduced EV battery demand into 2026. |
| above $18309.99 | 79.0% | 69.8% | Nickel prices face downward pressure from projected oversupply and reduced EV battery demand into 2026. |
| above $18659.99 | 9.0% | 5.7% | Nickel prices face downward pressure from projected oversupply and reduced EV battery demand into 2026. |

## Model vs Market

| Outcome | Market Probability | Octagon Model Probability |
| --- | --- | --- |
| above $17959.99 | 97.0% | 95.2% |
| above $18309.99 | 79.0% | 69.8% |
| above $18659.99 | 9.0% | 5.7% |
| above $18359.99 | 79.0% | 69.8% |
| above $18459.99 | 21.0% | 16.9% |
| above $18259.99 | 79.0% | 69.8% |
| above $18159.99 | 93.0% | 89.1% |
| above $18509.99 | 25.0% | 16.9% |
| above $17909.99 | 85.0% | 95.2% |
| above $18009.99 | 96.0% | 93.7% |
| above $18209.99 | 53.0% | 69.8% |
| above $18609.99 | 24.0% | 16.2% |
| above $18709.99 | 5.0% | 3.1% |
| above $18559.99 | 11.0% | 16.2% |
| above $18409.99 | 75.0% | 64.9% |
| above $17209.99 | 99.0% | 98.4% |
| above $17259.99 | 0.0% | 95.2% |
| above $17309.99 | 0.0% | 95.2% |
| above $17359.99 | 0.0% | 95.2% |
| above $17409.99 | 0.0% | 95.2% |
| above $17459.99 | 0.0% | 95.2% |
| above $17509.99 | 0.0% | 95.2% |
| above $17559.99 | 0.0% | 95.2% |
| above $17609.99 | 0.0% | 95.2% |
| above $17659.99 | 0.0% | 95.2% |
| above $17709.99 | 0.0% | 95.2% |
| above $17759.99 | 0.0% | 95.2% |
| above $17809.99 | 0.0% | 95.2% |
| above $17859.99 | 0.0% | 95.2% |
| above $18059.99 | 0.0% | 89.1% |
| above $18109.99 | 0.0% | 89.1% |
| above $18759.99 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| above $18809.99 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| above $18859.99 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| above $18909.99 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| above $18959.99 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| above $19009.99 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| above $19059.99 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| above $19109.99 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| above $19159.99 | 0.0% | 0.0% |

- Expiration: April 17, 2026

## Market Behavior & Price Dynamics

This prediction market has exhibited a strong upward trend, moving from an opening probability of 61.0% to a current price of 99.0%. The most significant price movements occurred in the final days of trading, with a sharp acceleration toward the upper limit of the price range. The chart indicates that the market probability jumped significantly between April 14 and April 17, effectively pricing the "YES" outcome as a near certainty by the resolution date. Since no external news or context was provided, the sharp price spikes are attributable to the market's internal mechanics, specifically its very low liquidity.

The trading volume pattern is the most critical factor in this analysis. With a total of only one contract traded throughout the market's history, the price action does not reflect a broad consensus or high market conviction. The final price of 99.0% was established on this single trade. This suggests that the price was moved by one market participant and has not been validated by subsequent trading activity. The absence of significant volume means traditional support and resistance levels have not been established; the price has simply moved from its starting point to its current level without being tested.

The chart's current price of 99.0% implies extremely high market sentiment in favor of the "YES" outcome. However, this sentiment is based on minimal participation. The low volume indicates that the market is illiquid and the price may not accurately represent the collective wisdom of a larger group of traders. The upward trajectory is clear, but the conviction behind it is exceptionally weak due to the near-total lack of trading activity.

## Significant Price Movements

### Outcome: above $17359.99

#### 📈 April 16, 2026: 74.0pp spike

Price increased from 21.0% to 95.0%

**What happened:** No supporting research available for this anomaly.

### Outcome: above $17309.99

#### 📈 April 15, 2026: 35.0pp spike

Price increased from 59.0% to 94.0%

**What happened:** No supporting research available for this anomaly.

## Contract Snapshot

The provided page content consists only of navigation links and does not contain the contract rules for the Kalshi prediction market. Therefore, I cannot extract information about YES/NO resolution triggers, key dates, or special settlement conditions from the text provided.

## Market Discussion

Limited public discussion available for this market.

## Market Data

| Contract | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | Last Price | Volume | Open Interest |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| above $17209.99 | 95% | 100% | 99% | $1 | $1 |
| above $17259.99 | 95% | 99% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| above $17309.99 | 95% | 99% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| above $17359.99 | 95% | 99% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| above $17409.99 | 95% | 99% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| above $17459.99 | 95% | 99% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| above $17509.99 | 95% | 99% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| above $17559.99 | 95% | 99% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| above $17609.99 | 95% | 99% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| above $17659.99 | 95% | 99% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| above $17709.99 | 95% | 99% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| above $17759.99 | 95% | 98% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| above $17809.99 | 95% | 98% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| above $17859.99 | 95% | 97% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| above $17909.99 | 96% | 98% | 85% | $30 | $30 |
| above $17959.99 | 96% | 97% | 97% | $347 | $204 |
| above $18009.99 | 95% | 96% | 96% | $30 | $20 |
| above $18059.99 | 95% | 98% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| above $18109.99 | 94% | 98% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| above $18159.99 | 93% | 99% | 93% | $154 | $104 |
| above $18209.99 | 92% | 98% | 53% | $24 | $24 |
| above $18259.99 | 90% | 97% | 79% | $154.11 | $149.11 |
| above $18309.99 | 91% | 94% | 79% | $323.61 | $323.61 |
| above $18359.99 | 82% | 91% | 79% | $193 | $193 |
| above $18409.99 | 74% | 79% | 75% | $5 | $5 |
| above $18459.99 | 62% | 72% | 21% | $156.07 | $156.07 |
| above $18509.99 | 49% | 60% | 25% | $112.11 | $107.11 |
| above $18559.99 | 36% | 46% | 11% | $10 | $10 |
| above $18609.99 | 24% | 25% | 24% | $24 | $24 |
| above $18659.99 | 14% | 24% | 9% | $203 | $203 |
| above $18709.99 | 7% | 18% | 5% | $19 | $19 |
| above $18759.99 | 4% | 10% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| above $18809.99 | 2% | 10% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| above $18859.99 | 0% | 8% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| above $18909.99 | 0% | 7% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| above $18959.99 | 0% | 6% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| above $19009.99 | 0% | 5% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| above $19059.99 | 0% | 4% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| above $19109.99 | 0% | 6% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| above $19159.99 | 0% | 5% | 0% | $0 | $0 |

## What is Indonesia's Nickel Export Policy for 2025-2026?

Export Duties on Intermediate Products | Postponed until at least 2025 [[^]](https://www.mysteel.net/news/5117812-flash-indonesia-postpones-implementation-of-coal-and-nickel-export-duties) |
Export Bans on NPI/Ferronickel | No outright bans projected [[^]](https://news.metal.com/ru/newscontent/103279773-Indonesian-Government-Implements-New-Nickel-Product-Tariff-Policy-from-April-26) |
HPAL Refined Nickel Output (2026) | Approximately 600,000 tonnes [[^]](https://www.mining-technology.com/analyst-comment/capacity-addition-indonesia-nickel-supply-2026/) |

**Indonesia has postponed the implementation of export duties on intermediate nickel products, such as Nickel Pig Iron (NPI) and ferronickel, until at least 2025 [[^]](https://www.mysteel.net/news/5117812-flash-indonesia-postpones-implementation-of-coal-and-nickel-export-duties)**

Indonesia has postponed the implementation of export duties on intermediate nickel products, such as Nickel Pig Iron (NPI) and ferronickel, until at least 2025 [[^]](https://www.mysteel.net/news/5117812-flash-indonesia-postpones-implementation-of-coal-and-nickel-export-duties). While an outright ban on raw nickel ore exports remains in effect [[^]](https://cetex.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/Indonesia-Ban-on-Exports-of-Raw-Nickel.pdf), there is no indication of an outright ban on intermediate products like NPI or ferronickel for the 2025-2026 period. The government instead introduced a royalty policy, effective from April 26, regulating royalties on various nickel products including nickel matte, MHP, NPI, and ferronickel [[^]](https://news.metal.com/ru/newscontent/103279773-Indonesian-Government-Implements-New-Nickel-Product-Tariff-Policy-from-April-26). This policy applies lower royalty rates to higher-value products, aiming to promote domestic deep processing of nickel resources [[^]](https://news.metal.com/ru/newscontent/103279773-Indonesian-Government-Implements-New-Nickel-Product-Tariff-Policy-from-April-26). Furthermore, Indonesia is strategically limiting new nickel permits to add value to its production [[^]](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-11-06/indonesia-limits-new-nickel-permits-to-add-value-to-production).

Indonesia anticipates significant growth in refined nickel output from HPAL plants. Indonesia is projected to experience substantial growth from its High-Pressure Acid Leach (HPAL) plants, with capacity additions from several new HPAL projects expected to come online or reach full production by 2026 [[^]](https://www.mining-technology.com/analyst-comment/capacity-addition-indonesia-nickel-supply-2026/). Consequently, Indonesia's HPAL plants are projected to produce approximately 600,000 tonnes of refined nickel by 2026 [[^]](https://www.mining-technology.com/analyst-comment/capacity-addition-indonesia-nickel-supply-2026/). This significant increase in HPAL production is expected to further solidify Indonesia's dominant position in the global nickel **market** [[^]](https://news.metal.com/newscontent/103693224/[SMM-Analysis]-Nickel-Intermediate-Product-**Market**-Under-the-Dual-Impact-of-Indonesian-Policies-and-Supply-Demand-Pattern%E2%**80%**942025-Nickel-Intermediate-Product-Annual-Review).

## What is the Projected LFP Battery Market Share in EVs by 2025?

Wood Mackenzie LFP EV battery capacity share 2025 | 45% (Wood Mackenzie, November 2024) [[^]](https://www.woodmac.com/reports/power-markets-global-lithium-ion-battery-supply-and-demand-update-q4-2024-150351502/) |
BloombergNEF LFP EV sales share 2025 | 60% (BloombergNEF, June 2024) [[^]](https://d2iztrg3kgqpue.cloudfront.net/production/uploaded-files/BNEF_EVO_2024_Publish-6db4a8cd-e5ee-40a8-9f57-9881fc0b77af.pdf) |
Wood Mackenzie LFP EV battery capacity share 2024 | 40% (Wood Mackenzie, November 2024) [[^]](https://www.woodmac.com/reports/power-markets-global-lithium-ion-battery-supply-and-demand-update-q4-2024-150351502/) |

**Projections for nickel-free LFP batteries in 2025 electric vehicles show differing estimates from leading research firms**

Projections for nickel-free LFP batteries in 2025 electric vehicles show differing estimates from leading research firms. By the end of 2025, the projected global **market** share of nickel-free LFP (Lithium Iron Phosphate) batteries in newly manufactured electric vehicles varies between **45%** and **60%**, depending on the source and metric. Both analyses underscore the significant presence of nickel-free LFP batteries in the electric vehicle **market** through 2025 [[^]](https://d2iztrg3kgqpue.cloudfront.net/production/uploaded-files/BNEF_EVO_2024_Publish-6db4a8cd-e5ee-40a8-9f57-9881fc0b77af.pdf).

Wood Mackenzie forecasts LFP batteries will comprise **45%** of passenger EV battery capacity by 2025. This estimate comes from their "Global lithium-ion battery supply and demand update Q4 2024 Report," published in November 2024. This projection indicates an increase from an estimated **40%** in 2024 to **45%** in the subsequent year [[^]](https://www.woodmac.com/reports/power-markets-global-lithium-ion-battery-supply-and-demand-update-q4-2024-150351502/).

BloombergNEF projects LFP batteries to capture **60%** of passenger EV sales in 2025. Their Electric Vehicle Outlook 2024, released in June 2024, provided this higher estimate. This report highlighted LFP's continued **market** dominance, projecting its share to grow to approximately **60%** in 2025 before potentially decreasing as higher nickel chemistries might regain **market** share [[^]](https://d2iztrg3kgqpue.cloudfront.net/production/uploaded-files/BNEF_EVO_2024_Publish-6db4a8cd-e5ee-40a8-9f57-9881fc0b77af.pdf).

## What is the Nickel Market and Inventory Outlook by Q1 2026?

Nickel Market Outlook 2026 | Continued oversupply expected [[^]](https://www.metal.com/pt/newscontent/103690997) |
LME/SHFE Visible Inventory Q1 2026 | Expected to remain high or increase [[^]](https://www.metal.com/pt/newscontent/103690997) |
Stock-to-Use Ratio Q1 2026 | Anticipated to be high compared to historical average [[^]](https://www.metal.com/pt/newscontent/103690997) |

**The nickel market is projected to continue experiencing an oversupply through 2026**

The nickel **market** is projected to continue experiencing an oversupply through 2026. The Shanghai Metals **Market** (SMM) anticipates this persistent oversupply will exert downward pressure on prices. While specific numerical forecasts for combined London Metal Exchange (LME) and Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) visible nickel inventory levels by Q1 2026 are not explicitly provided, the overall **market** outlook suggests these inventories will likely remain elevated or accumulate further due to the ongoing imbalance between supply and demand [[^]](https://www.metal.com/pt/newscontent/103690997).

Consequently, visible inventory levels are not expected to significantly decrease by Q1 2026. Instead, they are projected to remain high or even increase across LME and SHFE warehouses. This sustained high inventory level is a direct consequence of demand failing to keep pace with the available supply in the **market** [[^]](https://www.metal.com/pt/newscontent/103690997).

Therefore, the stock-to-use ratio in Q1 2026 is expected to be high. A **market** characterized by oversupply inherently leads to increased stock levels relative to consumption, maintaining an elevated stock-to-use ratio compared to historical averages. However, the available research does not detail the precise numerical value of this ratio for Q1 2026 or a specific historical 10-year average [[^]](https://www.metal.com/pt/newscontent/103690997).

## How Will EU CBAM Affect Nickel Import Costs and Volumes?

CBAM Full Implementation | January 1, 2026 [[^]](https://cbamguide.com/learn/eu-cbam/) |
Norilsk Nickel 2023 GHG Emissions | 9.2 million tonnes of CO2 equivalent [[^]](https://sr2024.nornickel.ru/en/climate-change/greenhouse-gas-emissions-product-carbon-footprint.html) |
Impact on High-Carbon Stainless Steel | Expected to raise costs, incentivizing lower carbon sources [[^]](https://www.crugroup.com/en/communities/thought-leadership/2026/CBAM-stainless-steel-impact-short-term-gains-long-term-risks/) |

**The European Union's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) will raise Class 1 nickel costs, shifting EU import dynamics**

The European Union's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) will raise Class 1 nickel costs, shifting EU import dynamics. Fully effective on January 1, 2026, CBAM aims to apply a carbon price to imported goods, preventing carbon leakage and ensuring the EU's climate goals are met [[^]](https://cbamguide.com/learn/eu-cbam/). While directly targeting carbon-intensive goods like iron and steel, the mechanism will significantly influence the landed cost and import volumes of Class 1 nickel, especially if it originates from high-carbon producers [[^]](https://cbamguide.com/learn/eu-cbam/). Importers are mandated to purchase CBAM certificates corresponding to the embedded carbon emissions, thereby adding a carbon cost to imports, which will translate to higher costs for nickel-containing products, such as stainless steel, if the nickel inputs have high emissions [[^]](https://cbamguide.com/learn/eu-cbam/).

High-carbon producers like Norilsk and Indonesia will face higher costs and potential shifts in import volumes. For major carbon-intensive Class 1 nickel producers, such as Russia's Norilsk Nickel and facilities in Indonesia, CBAM is expected to lead to increased landed costs and potential shifts in import volumes. Norilsk Nickel Group reported its total Scope 1 and Scope 2 greenhouse gas emissions at 9.2 million tonnes of CO2 equivalent in 2023, indicating a substantial carbon footprint for their nickel products [[^]](https://sr2024.nornickel.ru/en/climate-change/greenhouse-gas-emissions-product-carbon-footprint.html). Similarly, Indonesian nickel production, particularly nickel pig iron and ferro-nickel, often has a higher carbon footprint due to its reliance on coal-fired power plants [[^]](https://www.crugroup.com/en/communities/thought-leadership/2026/CBAM-stainless-steel-impact-short-term-gains-long-term-risks/). This means Class 1 nickel produced through similar energy-intensive methods in these regions would face a carbon cost disadvantage when imported into the EU.

EU demand will favor lower-carbon nickel, impacting **market** access for high-emission producers. The **market** implications point towards a growing preference for lower-carbon nickel sources within the EU. CBAM is projected to increase the cost of high-carbon stainless steel imports, motivating EU buyers to choose producers with lower carbon footprints [[^]](https://www.crugroup.com/en/communities/thought-leadership/2026/CBAM-stainless-steel-impact-short-term-gains-long-term-risks/). This provides a competitive edge to producers with cleaner operations. As EU capital and demand increasingly favor "green" metals, transparency regarding carbon footprint will become critical for **market** access [[^]](https://www.miningsee.eu/nickels-two-speed-**market**-why-end-use-transparency-now-decides-access-to-european-capital/). Consequently, Class 1 nickel from producers unable to demonstrate low carbon intensity could experience reduced demand from EU buyers looking to minimize their CBAM liabilities, thereby affecting import volumes from regions like Russia and Indonesia.

## Are Major Class 1 Nickel Projects Expected Online Before 2026?

Kabanga Nickel FID Target | Toward 2026 [[^]](https://www.cruxinvestor.com/posts/lifezone-metals-advances-toward-a-2026-final-investment-decision-as-kabanga-execution-milestones-reduce-development-risk) |
Crawford Nickel Construction Decision | Year-end 2026 [[^]](https://www.cruxinvestor.com/posts/crawford-moves-toward-year-end-2026-construction-decision-as-canada-nickel-closes-key-project-funding-gates) |
Voisey's Bay Expansion Full Production | Late 2021 [[^]](https://www.gov.nl.ca/em/files/Mining-in-NL-Fall-2025.pdf) |

**Major new Class 1 nickel projects will not be online before 2026**

Major new Class 1 nickel projects will not be online before 2026. Two significant Class 1 nickel projects, Kabanga Nickel and Crawford Nickel, are not expected to commence production prior to this timeframe. Lifezone Metals is targeting a Final Investment Decision (FID) for its Kabanga Nickel project in Tanzania toward 2026, with production anticipated to follow this key decision [[^]](https://www.cruxinvestor.com/posts/lifezone-metals-advances-toward-a-2026-final-investment-decision-as-kabanga-execution-milestones-reduce-development-risk). Similarly, Canada Nickel's Crawford Nickel Project in Ontario, Canada, aims for a construction decision by year-end 2026, indicating that production would begin after this date [[^]](https://www.cruxinvestor.com/posts/crawford-moves-toward-year-end-2026-construction-decision-as-canada-nickel-closes-key-project-funding-gates). Both projects are currently in development, with critical investment or construction decisions scheduled for 2026.

Vale's Voisey's Bay expansion is already fully operational. In contrast to new projects, Vale's Voisey's Bay operation in Newfoundland and Labrador, Canada, has already completed its expansion and reached full production capacity. The transition to underground mining was successfully finalized, with the expansion achieving full production by late 2021, which extended the mine's operational life to 2035 [[^]](https://www.newswire.ca/news-releases/vale-base-metals-complete-voisey-s-bay-transition-to-underground-mining-803490149.html). Consequently, this project does not qualify as a new Class 1 nickel project expected to come online before 2026, given that its expanded production capacity was established several years prior [[^]](https://www.gov.nl.ca/em/files/Mining-in-NL-Fall-2025.pdf).

## What Could Change the Odds

**Key takeaway.** Catalyst analysis unavailable.

## Key Dates & Catalysts

- **Expiration:** April 24, 2026
- **Closes:** April 17, 2026

## Decision-Flipping Events

- Catalyst analysis unavailable.

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## Historical Resolutions

**Historical Resolutions:** 20 markets in this series

**Outcomes:** 4 resolved YES, 16 resolved NO

**Recent resolutions:**

- KXNICKELW-26APR1017-T18049.99: NO (Apr 10, 2026)
- KXNICKELW-26APR1017-T17999.99: NO (Apr 10, 2026)
- KXNICKELW-26APR1017-T17949.99: NO (Apr 10, 2026)
- KXNICKELW-26APR1017-T17899.99: NO (Apr 10, 2026)
- KXNICKELW-26APR1017-T17849.99: NO (Apr 10, 2026)

## Disclaimer

This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or trading advice.
Prediction markets involve risk of loss. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
We are not affiliated with Kalshi or any prediction market platform. Market data may be delayed or incomplete.

### Data Sources & Model Transparency

**Data Sources:** Octagon Deep Research aggregates information from multiple sources including news, filings, and market data.

**Freshness:** Analysis is generated periodically and may not reflect the latest developments. Verify critical information from primary sources.