# Lithium close price on Apr 17, 2026?

Apr 17, 2026

Updated: April 17, 2026

Category: Commodities

Tags: Metals

HTML: /markets/commodities/metals/lithium-close-price-on-apr-17-2026/

## Short Answer

**Key takeaway.** Both the **model** and the **market** overwhelmingly agree that the lithium close price on April 17, 2026, will be above ¥156499.99.

## Key Claims (January 2026)

**- - Codelco-SQM deal adds 300k tons lithium carbonate equivalent from 2026.** - CATL and BYD are expected to scale sodium-ion battery production.
- Increased sodium-ion battery output could reduce future lithium demand.
- Codelco-SQM partnership establishes a state-controlled joint lithium venture.
- China saw sustained drawdown of lithium carbonate inventories in Q4 2025.

### Why This Matters (GEO)

- AI agents extract claims, not arguments.
- Improves citation probability in summaries and answer cards.
- Enables fact stitching across multiple sources.

## Executive Verdict

**Key takeaway.** **Model**'s **95.9%** (3.9pp above 92c **market**) offers 1.1x payout despite projected 2026 lithium oversupply.

### Who Wins and Why

| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 
    above ¥166249.99
 | 80.0% | 74.3% | Increased lithium supply from Chile and rising sodium-ion battery adoption may reduce prices in 2026. |
| 
    above ¥165999.99
 | 81.0% | 75.5% | Increased lithium supply from Chile and rising sodium-ion battery adoption may reduce prices in 2026. |
| 
    above ¥165499.99
 | 66.0% | 80.4% | Increased lithium supply from Chile and rising sodium-ion battery adoption may reduce prices in 2026. |

## Model vs Market

| Outcome | Market Probability | Octagon Model Probability |
| --- | --- | --- |
| 
    above ¥166249.99
 | 80.0% | 74.3% |
| 
    above ¥165999.99
 | 81.0% | 75.5% |
| 
    above ¥165499.99
 | 66.0% | 80.4% |
| 
    above ¥165749.99
 | 85.0% | 80.4% |
| 
    above ¥165249.99
 | 68.0% | 80.4% |
| 
    above ¥158749.99
 | 95.0% | 93.2% |
| 
    above ¥167999.99
 | 53.0% | 53.0% |
| 
    above ¥159749.99
 | 86.0% | 93.2% |
| 
    above ¥168249.99
 | 61.0% | 53.0% |
| 
    above ¥167499.99
 | 72.0% | 65.0% |
| 
    above ¥166499.99
 | 60.0% | 67.3% |
| 
    above ¥167749.99
 | 68.0% | 60.5% |
| 
    above ¥168749.99
 | 31.0% | 27.9% |
| 
    above ¥167249.99
 | 74.0% | 67.3% |
| 
    above ¥169499.99
 | 35.0% | 27.9% |
| 
    above ¥168499.99
 | 34.0% | 27.9% |
| 
    above ¥169749.99
 | 27.0% | 21.0% |
| 
    above ¥158999.99
 | 89.0% | 93.2% |
| 
    above ¥168999.99
 | 35.0% | 27.9% |
| 
    above ¥157499.99
 | 91.0% | 93.2% |
| 
    above ¥159249.99
 | 89.0% | 93.2% |
| 
    above ¥156499.99
 | 92.0% | 95.9% |
| 
    above ¥160499.99
 | 95.0% | 93.2% |
| 
    above ¥158499.99
 | 92.0% | 93.2% |
| 
    above ¥156749.99
 | 97.0% | 95.9% |
| 
    above ¥156999.99
 | 97.0% | 95.9% |
| 
    above ¥157249.99
 | 97.0% | 95.9% |
| 
    above ¥157749.99
 | 92.0% | 93.2% |
| 
    above ¥159999.99
 | 80.0% | 93.2% |
| 
    above ¥160999.99
 | 84.0% | 80.4% |
| 
    above ¥166749.99
 | 58.0% | 67.3% |
| 
    above ¥163249.99
 | 84.0% | 80.4% |
| 
    above ¥166999.99
 | 52.0% | 67.3% |
| 
    above ¥164749.99
 | 60.0% | 80.4% |
| 
    above ¥157999.99
 | 0.0% | 93.2% |
| 
    above ¥158249.99
 | 0.0% | 93.2% |
| 
    above ¥159499.99
 | 0.0% | 93.2% |
| 
    above ¥160249.99
 | 0.0% | 93.2% |
| 
    above ¥160749.99
 | 0.0% | 80.4% |
| 
    above ¥161249.99
 | 0.0% | 80.4% |
| 
    above ¥161499.99
 | 0.0% | 80.4% |
| 
    above ¥161749.99
 | 0.0% | 80.4% |
| 
    above ¥161999.99
 | 0.0% | 80.4% |
| 
    above ¥162249.99
 | 0.0% | 80.4% |
| 
    above ¥162499.99
 | 0.0% | 80.4% |
| 
    above ¥162749.99
 | 0.0% | 80.4% |
| 
    above ¥162999.99
 | 0.0% | 80.4% |
| 
    above ¥163499.99
 | 0.0% | 80.4% |
| 
    above ¥163749.99
 | 0.0% | 80.4% |
| 
    above ¥163999.99
 | 0.0% | 80.4% |
| 
    above ¥164249.99
 | 0.0% | 80.4% |
| 
    above ¥164499.99
 | 0.0% | 80.4% |
| 
    above ¥164999.99
 | 0.0% | 80.4% |
| 
    above ¥169249.99
 | 0.0% | 27.9% |
| 
    above ¥169999.99
 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 
    above ¥170249.99
 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 
    above ¥170499.99
 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 
    above ¥170749.99
 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 
    above ¥170999.99
 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 
    above ¥171249.99
 | 0.0% | 0.0% |

- Expiration: April 17, 2026

## Market Behavior & Price Dynamics

This prediction market has experienced a sharp upward trend, primarily defined by a single, dramatic price movement. After trading in a range between 49.0% and 56.0%, the probability for a "YES" outcome spiked by 44.0 percentage points on April 15, reaching a high of 93.0%. The price has since stabilized at 92.0%, establishing a new and significantly higher trading range just days before the market's resolution.

The provided context does not offer a specific catalyst for this abrupt price surge. A critical factor in this market is the extremely low trading volume, with only 20 contracts traded in total. This low liquidity suggests that the price spike may not be the result of a broad market consensus but rather the action of a very small number of traders. The recent peak of 93.0% now acts as a key resistance level. While the current 92.0% price indicates overwhelmingly positive market sentiment for a "YES" resolution, the lack of significant trading volume suggests this high probability is not supported by strong market conviction.

## Significant Price Movements

#### 📈 April 15, 2026: 53.0pp spike

Price increased from 44.0% to 97.0%

**Outcome:**
    above ¥156749.99

**What happened:** No supporting research available for this anomaly.

## Contract Snapshot

This market resolves to Yes if the daily close price for lithium on April 17, 2026, is above 168999.99 CNY/metric ton; otherwise, it resolves to No. The outcome is verified by Trading Economics - Lithium, with the settlement value rounded to 0 decimal places, using the latest available close price if no specific value is reported. Trading closes at 5:00 PM EDT on April 17, 2026, with a projected payout at 6:00 PM EDT.

## Market Discussion

Limited public discussion available for this market.

## Market Data

| Contract | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | Last Price | Volume | Open Interest |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 
    above ¥156499.99
 | 93% | 99% | 92% | $20 | $10 |
| 
    above ¥156749.99
 | 94% | 99% | 97% | $10 | $10 |
| 
    above ¥156999.99
 | 94% | 99% | 97% | $10 | $10 |
| 
    above ¥157249.99
 | 94% | 99% | 97% | $10 | $10 |
| 
    above ¥157499.99
 | 94% | 99% | 91% | $23 | $21 |
| 
    above ¥157749.99
 | 94% | 99% | 92% | $10 | $10 |
| 
    above ¥157999.99
 | 93% | 99% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| 
    above ¥158249.99
 | 93% | 99% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| 
    above ¥158499.99
 | 93% | 99% | 92% | $15 | $15 |
| 
    above ¥158749.99
 | 92% | 99% | 95% | $411 | $333 |
| 
    above ¥158999.99
 | 92% | 99% | 89% | $50 | $50 |
| 
    above ¥159249.99
 | 92% | 94% | 89% | $21 | $21 |
| 
    above ¥159499.99
 | 92% | 99% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| 
    above ¥159749.99
 | 92% | 99% | 86% | $244 | $224 |
| 
    above ¥159999.99
 | 92% | 99% | 80% | $10 | $10 |
| 
    above ¥160249.99
 | 92% | 99% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| 
    above ¥160499.99
 | 92% | 99% | 95% | $17 | $5 |
| 
    above ¥160749.99
 | 91% | 99% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| 
    above ¥160999.99
 | 91% | 99% | 84% | $8 | $0 |
| 
    above ¥161249.99
 | 91% | 98% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| 
    above ¥161499.99
 | 91% | 98% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| 
    above ¥161749.99
 | 91% | 98% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| 
    above ¥161999.99
 | 91% | 98% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| 
    above ¥162249.99
 | 91% | 98% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| 
    above ¥162499.99
 | 90% | 97% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| 
    above ¥162749.99
 | 90% | 97% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| 
    above ¥162999.99
 | 90% | 97% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| 
    above ¥163249.99
 | 89% | 96% | 84% | $6 | $0 |
| 
    above ¥163499.99
 | 89% | 96% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| 
    above ¥163749.99
 | 88% | 96% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| 
    above ¥163999.99
 | 88% | 96% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| 
    above ¥164249.99
 | 90% | 97% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| 
    above ¥164499.99
 | 90% | 97% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| 
    above ¥164749.99
 | 86% | 94% | 60% | $1 | $1 |
| 
    above ¥164999.99
 | 86% | 95% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| 
    above ¥165249.99
 | 88% | 90% | 68% | $614 | $14 |
| 
    above ¥165499.99
 | 87% | 88% | 66% | $623 | $323 |
| 
    above ¥165749.99
 | 84% | 86% | 85% | $618 | $313 |
| 
    above ¥165999.99
 | 81% | 82% | 81% | $756.48 | $385.48 |
| 
    above ¥166249.99
 | 78% | 84% | 80% | $822 | $153 |
| 
    above ¥166499.99
 | 78% | 80% | 60% | $165 | $165 |
| 
    above ¥166749.99
 | 74% | 85% | 58% | $8 | $6 |
| 
    above ¥166999.99
 | 72% | 83% | 52% | $4 | $4 |
| 
    above ¥167249.99
 | 70% | 76% | 74% | $116.64 | $116.64 |
| 
    above ¥167499.99
 | 68% | 72% | 72% | $195 | $193 |
| 
    above ¥167749.99
 | 65% | 68% | 68% | $157 | $137 |
| 
    above ¥167999.99
 | 62% | 66% | 53% | $253 | $94 |
| 
    above ¥168249.99
 | 58% | 64% | 61% | $227 | $156 |
| 
    above ¥168499.99
 | 55% | 60% | 34% | $99 | $99 |
| 
    above ¥168749.99
 | 51% | 57% | 31% | $146 | $146 |
| 
    above ¥168999.99
 | 48% | 54% | 35% | $34 | $34 |
| 
    above ¥169249.99
 | 44% | 55% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| 
    above ¥169499.99
 | 41% | 48% | 35% | $100 | $91 |
| 
    above ¥169749.99
 | 37% | 44% | 27% | $91 | $91 |
| 
    above ¥169999.99
 | 34% | 43% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| 
    above ¥170249.99
 | 30% | 41% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| 
    above ¥170499.99
 | 27% | 37% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| 
    above ¥170749.99
 | 24% | 34% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| 
    above ¥170999.99
 | 21% | 31% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| 
    above ¥171249.99
 | 18% | 29% | 0% | $0 | $0 |

## What are Albemarle's and SQM's Project Production Timelines?

Albemarle Kings Mountain Production Start | 2029 (Albemarle Q4 2024 results) [[^]](https://investors.albemarle.com/news-and-events/news/news-details/2025/Albemarle-Reports-Fourth-Quarter-and-Full-Year-2024-Results/default.aspx) |
SQM Salar Futuro Phase 1 Production Start | Late 2028 (SQM Q4 2024 investor reports) [[^]](https://ir.sqm.com/static-files/12d462b5-5953-4cfd-b7c4-ae8a571e739c) |
Q1 2026 Production (Both Projects) | None projected (Albemarle [[^]](https://s201.q4cdn.com/960975307/files/doc_presentations/2026/Mar/18/2026_03-ALB-Investor-Presentation_vWeb.pdf), SQM [[^]](https://ir.sqm.com/static-files/12d462b5-5953-4cfd-b7c4-ae8a571e739c)) |

**Albemarle's Kings Mountain project targets initial production in 2029**

Albemarle's Kings Mountain project targets initial production in 2029. Albemarle's Kings Mountain project in the USA is targeting an initial production start in 2029 [[^]](https://s201.q4cdn.com/960975307/files/doc_presentations/2026/Mar/18/2026_03-ALB-Investor-Presentation_vWeb.pdf). The company successfully completed dewatering of the mine in January 2024 [[^]](https://www.albemarle.com/global/en/news/kings-mountain-mine-dewatering-successfully-completed). Due to this projected operational timeline, no production is anticipated from Kings Mountain in Q1 2026 [[^]](https://s201.q4cdn.com/960975307/files/doc_presentations/2026/Mar/18/2026_03-ALB-Investor-Presentation_vWeb.pdf). This timeline and the absence of Q1 2026 production align with the guidance provided in Albemarle's Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2024 Results, issued in February 2025 [[^]](https://investors.albemarle.com/news-and-events/news/news-details/2025/Albemarle-Reports-Fourth-Quarter-and-Full-Year-2024-Results/default.aspx).

SQM's Salar Futuro Phase 1 expects production to begin late 2028. SQM's Salar Futuro project in Chile anticipates Phase 1 production to commence in late 2028 [[^]](https://www.mining.com/web/sqm-codelco-tie-up-to-submit-environmental-study-for-salar-futuro-lithium-project-in-june/). While an initial Environmental Impact Study (EIS) submission was planned for June 2024 [[^]](https://www.mining.com/web/sqm-codelco-tie-up-to-submit-environmental-study-for-salar-futuro-lithium-project-in-june/), SQM's Q4 2024 earnings release, issued in March 2025, updated this, stating that the Environmental Impact Assessment is now expected in mid-2025 [[^]](https://ir.sqm.com/static-files/12d462b5-5953-4cfd-b7c4-ae8a571e739c). Consequently, no production from Salar Futuro is projected for Q1 2026, consistent with its late 2028 commissioning timeline [[^]](https://ir.sqm.com/static-files/12d462b5-5953-4cfd-b7c4-ae8a571e739c). This projected startup for Phase 1 of Salar Futuro aligns with the guidance from SQM's Q4 2024 investor reports [[^]](https://ir.sqm.com/static-files/12d462b5-5953-4cfd-b7c4-ae8a571e739c).

## What Percentage of CATL & BYD 2025 Output is Sodium-ion?

CATL Sodium-ion Mass Production | End of 2025 [[^]](https://chargedevs.com/newswire/catl-plans-to-mass-produce-naxtra-sodium-ion-ev-battery-packs-by-the-end-of-2025/) |
BYD Potential Sodium-ion Capacity | Up to 30 GWh/year [[^]](https://medium.com/@brianiselin67/byds-sodium-bomb-just-blew-up-the-lithium-cartel-6b0276941808) |
CATL Projected 2025 Global EV Battery Market Share | 39.2% [[^]](https://longbridge.com/en/news/274753199) |

**Precise sodium-ion allocation for 2025 battery output is currently unavailable from the research**

Precise sodium-ion allocation for 2025 battery output is currently unavailable from the research. A specific percentage of total planned 2025 battery output (in GWh) allocated by CATL and BYD to sodium-ion chemistries versus all lithium-based chemistries cannot be calculated. While CATL plans to commence mass production of its Naxtra sodium-ion EV battery packs by the end of 2025 [[^]](https://chargedevs.com/newswire/catl-plans-to-mass-produce-naxtra-sodium-ion-ev-battery-packs-by-the-end-of-2025/), the exact GWh volume for sodium-ion batteries allocated to its 2025 output is not specified. Larger-scale deployment and significant performance upgrades for CATL's sodium-ion technology are anticipated throughout 2026 [[^]](https://chinaevhome.com/2025/12/29/catl-sets-2026-timeline-for-large-scale-sodium-ion-battery-deployment/).

BYD is expanding sodium-ion production, but 2025 allocations are unclear. Reports indicate the company is building a new facility for sodium-ion battery production with a potential total capacity of up to 30 GWh per year [[^]](https://medium.com/@brianiselin67/byds-sodium-bomb-just-blew-up-the-lithium-cartel-6b0276941808). However, the specific timeline for this capacity to become fully operational and its precise allocation as a percentage of BYD's total planned 2025 battery output are not detailed in the provided sources [[^]](https://medium.com/@brianiselin67/byds-sodium-bomb-just-blew-up-the-lithium-cartel-6b0276941808). In a broader context, CATL is projected to hold a global EV battery **market** share of **39.2%** for 2025, and BYD is expected to have a **16.4%** share [[^]](https://longbridge.com/en/news/274753199). These figures highlight their **market** presence, but the research does not offer the specific total GWh figures for their planned 2025 battery output, nor does it detail the GWh volume specifically allocated to sodium-ion chemistries for that year. Therefore, a definitive percentage allocation for 2025 output to sodium-ion versus lithium-based chemistries for either company cannot be determined.

## What are the key terms of the Codelco-SQM lithium deal?

Codelco's Ownership in JV | 50% + 1 share [[^]](https://blog.investchile.gob.cl/key-points-codelco-and-sqm) |
Variable Royalty Rate (2026-2030) | 13.2% to 19.4% of sales [[^]](https://skillings.net/chile-lithium-royalties-finalization-of-sqm-codelco-terms-for-2026-2030/) |
Fixed Royalty Rate (2031-2060) | 16% of sales [[^]](https://skillings.net/chile-lithium-royalties-finalization-of-sqm-codelco-terms-for-2026-2030/) |

**The Codelco-SQM partnership establishes a state-controlled joint lithium venture**

The Codelco-SQM partnership establishes a state-controlled joint lithium venture. This collaboration creates a joint venture named NovaAndino Litio, with Minera Tarar as its operational entity. Codelco will hold a controlling stake of **50%** plus one share in this venture [[^]](https://blog.investchile.gob.cl/key-points-codelco-and-sqm), thereby granting the Chilean State direct control over operations until 2060. The primary objective is to significantly increase lithium carbonate equivalent production by an additional 300,000 metric tons from 2026, followed by a further 280,000 metric tons from 2031 [[^]](https://blog.investchile.gob.cl/key-points-codelco-and-sqm).

The agreement codifies specific variable and fixed lithium royalty rates. For new production between 2026 and 2030, a variable royalty rate will be applied, ranging from **13.2%** to **19.4%** of sales, dependent on lithium **market** prices [[^]](https://skillings.net/chile-lithium-royalties-finalization-of-sqm-codelco-terms-for-2026-2030/). From 2031 until the agreement concludes in 2060, a fixed royalty rate of **16%** of sales will be in effect [[^]](https://skillings.net/chile-lithium-royalties-finalization-of-sqm-codelco-terms-for-2026-2030/). These royalty payments, combined with other taxes, are projected to result in an estimated total effective rate to the State between **30%** and **40%** of the operating margin during the initial phase until 2030 [[^]](https://blog.investchile.gob.cl/key-points-codelco-and-sqm).

The partnership has not reduced SQM's 5-year capital expenditure plan. There is no indication from the available sources that the Codelco-SQM partnership agreement has led to a material downward revision in SQM's 5-year capital expenditure plan for Chile. Rather, the agreement emphasizes expanding production quotas and extending operations, which typically necessitates sustained or increased capital investment [[^]](https://ir.sqm.com/system/files-encrypted/nasdaq_kms/assets/2024/11/22/12-12-48/5-economic-analysis-components-of-the-agreement.pdf). The explicit goal of the partnership is to enhance lithium production from the Salar de Atacama [[^]](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/909037/000090903724000045/exhibit991.htm).

## What is North America's Recycled Lithium Carbonate Capacity in 2025?

Ascend Elements Q4 2025 Production | Over 1,000 tpy battery-grade lithium carbonate (by end of Q4 2025) [[^]](https://ascendelements.com/ascend-elements-closes-2025-with-strong-business-momentum-and-commercial-scale-production-of-critical-minerals-for-battery-production/), [[^]](https://ascendelements.com/ascend-elements-produces-recycled-lithium-carbonate/) |
Li-Cycle Black Mass Processing Capacity | 35,000 tpa black mass processing capacity (Rochester Hub) [[^]](https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20250110611886/en/Li-Cycle-Provides-Preliminary-Commercial-and-Operational-Highlights-for-2024), [[^]](https://s27.q4cdn.com/432858399/files/doc_financials/2024/SLIDES-LICY-Q3-2024-Earnings-Presentation-Final-1.pdf) |
Redwood Materials Lithium Carbonate Output | Specific Q4 2025 production output not detailed [[^]](https://www.redwoodmaterials.com/news/2025-a-defining-year-for-redwood/), [[^]](https://www.redwoodmaterials.com/materials/) |

**The aggregate 2025 lithium carbonate capacity from major recyclers is unclear**

The aggregate 2025 lithium carbonate capacity from major recyclers is unclear. The aggregate 2025 nameplate capacity for battery-grade lithium carbonate from North America's three largest recycling plants (Redwood Materials NV, Li-Cycle NY, Ascend Elements KY) cannot be fully determined from available information due to varying levels of specificity for each facility. Ascend Elements, at its Apex 1 facility in Hopkinsville, Kentucky, successfully reached a steady-state production rate of over 1,000 tonnes per year (tpy) of purified, battery-grade lithium carbonate by the end of Q4 2025, representing its achieved commercial scale production [[^]](https://ascendelements.com/ascend-elements-closes-2025-with-strong-business-momentum-and-commercial-scale-production-of-critical-minerals-for-battery-production/), [[^]](https://ascendelements.com/ascend-elements-produces-recycled-lithium-carbonate/).

Li-Cycle and Redwood Materials lack specific lithium carbonate capacities. For Li-Cycle, its Rochester Hub in New York is projected to commence operations in mid-2025, designed to produce battery-grade lithium carbonate, and will have a Phase 1 black mass processing capacity of 35,000 tonnes per annum (tpa) [[^]](https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20250110611886/en/Li-Cycle-Provides-Preliminary-Commercial-and-Operational-Highlights-for-2024), [[^]](https://s27.q4cdn.com/432858399/files/doc_financials/2024/SLIDES-LICY-Q3-2024-Earnings-Presentation-Final-1.pdf). However, a specific 2025 nameplate capacity for lithium carbonate itself is not stated in the provided documents. Redwood Materials' Nevada facility anticipates producing "thousands of tons of cathode active material and anode copper foil" by the end of 2025, reaching "full commercial scale," and generally recovering battery-grade lithium, yet a specific 2025 nameplate capacity for battery-grade lithium carbonate is not available [[^]](https://www.redwoodmaterials.com/news/2025-a-defining-year-for-redwood/), [[^]](https://www.redwoodmaterials.com/materials/).

Only Ascend Elements reported Q4 2025 lithium carbonate production. Regarding actual Q4 2025 production output, Ascend Elements reported achieving a steady-state production rate of over 1,000 tpy of purified lithium carbonate by the end of Q4 2025 at its Kentucky facility [[^]](https://ascendelements.com/ascend-elements-closes-2025-with-strong-business-momentum-and-commercial-scale-production-of-critical-minerals-for-battery-production/), [[^]](https://ascendelements.com/ascend-elements-produces-recycled-lithium-carbonate/). For Redwood Materials' Nevada operations and Li-Cycle's New York facility, specific Q4 2025 production outputs for battery-grade lithium carbonate are not detailed in the provided web research results. A comparison of actual Q4 2025 production output to consensus analyst forecasts for recycled supply cannot be made, as the provided web research results do not contain information regarding such forecasts.

## How Did China's Lithium Carbonate Inventories Trend in Q4 2025?

Q4 2025 Inventory Trend | Slow, sustained drawdown [[^]](https://www.metal.com/en/newscontent/103695828) |
Inventories End-2025 | Approximately 60,000-70,000 tonnes [[^]](https://www.metal.com/en/newscontent/103695828) |
Oversupply Threshold | Did not breach 100,000 tonnes [[^]](https://www.metal.com/en/newscontent/103695828) |

**Chinese lithium carbonate inventories saw a sustained drawdown in Q4 2025**

Chinese lithium carbonate inventories saw a sustained drawdown in Q4 2025. Visible lithium carbonate inventories in Chinese warehouses experienced a slow, sustained drawdown during Q4 2025, following a peak observed in Q3 2025. This trend, based on weekly data from the Shanghai Metals **Market** (SMM), was driven by improving demand and moderated supply growth [[^]](https://www.metal.com/en/newscontent/103695828). SMM experts forecast this drawdown to continue into Q1 2026, contributing to a broader **market** rebalancing [[^]](https://www.metal.com/en/newscontent/103695828).

Inventories remained well below the oversupply indicator of 100,000 tonnes. SMM analysis indicated that total visible lithium carbonate inventories in Chinese warehouses were expected to decrease significantly from earlier peak levels to approximately 60,000-70,000 tonnes by the end of 2025 [[^]](https://www.metal.com/en/newscontent/103695828). This forecast suggested that the total tonnage during Q4 2025 did not breach the 100,000-tonne level, often cited by analysts as a key indicator of **market** oversupply [[^]](https://www.metal.com/en/newscontent/103695828). Instead, inventories were considerably below this threshold, indicating a movement away from potential oversupply as the **market** shifted from a surplus to a demand-driven deficit scenario [[^]](https://www.metal.com/en/newscontent/103695828).

## What Could Change the Odds

**Key takeaway.** Catalyst analysis unavailable.

## Key Dates & Catalysts

- **Expiration:** April 24, 2026
- **Closes:** April 17, 2026

## Decision-Flipping Events

- Catalyst analysis unavailable.

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## Historical Resolutions

**Historical Resolutions:** 20 markets in this series

**Outcomes:** 0 resolved YES, 20 resolved NO

**Recent resolutions:**

- KXLITHIUMW-26APR1017-T163249.99: NO (Apr 10, 2026)
- KXLITHIUMW-26APR1017-T162999.99: NO (Apr 10, 2026)
- KXLITHIUMW-26APR1017-T162749.99: NO (Apr 10, 2026)
- KXLITHIUMW-26APR1017-T162499.99: NO (Apr 10, 2026)
- KXLITHIUMW-26APR1017-T162249.99: NO (Apr 10, 2026)

## Disclaimer

This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or trading advice.
Prediction markets involve risk of loss. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
We are not affiliated with Kalshi or any prediction market platform. Market data may be delayed or incomplete.

### Data Sources & Model Transparency

**Data Sources:** Octagon Deep Research aggregates information from multiple sources including news, filings, and market data.

**Freshness:** Analysis is generated periodically and may not reflect the latest developments. Verify critical information from primary sources.