# Gold price on Apr 16, 2026 at 5pm EDT?

Apr 16, 2026 at 5pm EDT

Updated: April 16, 2026

Category: Commodities

Tags: Metals

HTML: /markets/commodities/metals/gold-price-on-apr-16-2026-at-5pm-edt/

## Short Answer

**Key takeaway.** Both the **model** and the **market** expect gold to be priced above **$4594** on April 16, 2026, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.

## Key Claims (January 2026)

**- - Significant COMEX Gold long liquidation levels exist below current prices.** - Breaching these support levels could trigger cascading sales and downward pressure.
- Specific COMEX Gold order flow and options data are unavailable.
- No new central bank gold reserve policy updates have been found.
- The **market** experienced recent significant upward implied **probability** spikes.

### Why This Matters (GEO)

- AI agents extract claims, not arguments.
- Improves citation probability in summaries and answer cards.
- Enables fact stitching across multiple sources.

## Executive Verdict

**Key takeaway.** **Model**'s **98.8%** **probability** is slightly above the 98c **market**, with liquidation levels indicating potential downside.

### Who Wins and Why

| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| above $4824 | 43.0% | 39.0% | Market higher by 4.0pp |
| above $4804 | 66.0% | 62.2% | Market higher by 3.8pp |
| above $4834 | 38.0% | 34.2% | Market higher by 3.8pp |

## Model vs Market

| Outcome | Market Probability | Octagon Model Probability |
| --- | --- | --- |
| above $4824 | 43.0% | 39.0% |
| above $4804 | 66.0% | 62.2% |
| above $4834 | 38.0% | 34.2% |
| above $4794 | 72.0% | 68.6% |
| above $4814 | 55.0% | 50.9% |
| above $4844 | 19.0% | 16.6% |
| above $4714 | 96.0% | 96.5% |
| above $4774 | 76.0% | 72.9% |
| above $4764 | 79.0% | 76.2% |
| above $4854 | 19.0% | 16.6% |
| above $4914 | 10.0% | 8.6% |
| above $4784 | 66.0% | 68.6% |
| above $4864 | 11.0% | 16.6% |
| above $4874 | 17.0% | 16.6% |
| above $4984 | 3.0% | 2.5% |
| above $4974 | 2.0% | 2.5% |
| above $4904 | 10.0% | 8.6% |
| above $4884 | 15.0% | 16.6% |
| above $4894 | 19.0% | 16.6% |
| above $4964 | 4.0% | 3.4% |
| above $4744 | 97.0% | 96.5% |
| above $4734 | 97.0% | 96.5% |
| above $4594 | 98.0% | 98.8% |
| above $4754 | 95.0% | 94.2% |
| above $4704 | 99.0% | 98.8% |
| above $4724 | 95.0% | 96.5% |
| above $4644 | 98.0% | 98.8% |
| above $4654 | 99.0% | 98.8% |
| above $4954 | 2.0% | 3.4% |
| above $4624 | 99.0% | 98.8% |
| above $4664 | 99.0% | 98.8% |
| above $4674 | 99.0% | 98.8% |
| above $4934 | 4.0% | 4.3% |
| above $4604 | 99.0% | 98.8% |
| above $4614 | 99.0% | 98.8% |
| above $4684 | 99.0% | 98.8% |
| above $4694 | 99.0% | 98.8% |
| above $4634 | 99.0% | 98.8% |
| above $4924 | 9.0% | 7.7% |
| above $4944 | 5.0% | 4.3% |

- Expiration: April 16, 2026

## Market Behavior & Price Dynamics

This market displays a very strong, short-term upward trend over its two-day trading history, beginning at an already high probability of 89.0% and quickly moving higher. The most significant price movement was a sharp 10.0 percentage point spike on April 15, which took the price from 89.0% to a peak of 99.0%. While there is no specific context provided to explain the direct cause of this sudden rally, it represented a rapid consolidation of trader expectations toward a positive resolution as the contract neared its expiry. The price has since stabilized at 98.0%, just below its all-time high.

The trading volume pattern reinforces the market's conviction. While the initial spike occurred on lower volume, the vast majority of contracts were traded on the final day, April 16, as the price held firm near its peak. This high volume near the top of the range suggests strong agreement and final positioning among participants. Due to the short timeframe, support and resistance levels are minimal, but 89.0% acted as an initial floor, while 99.0% marked the peak resistance. The overall chart suggests an overwhelming market sentiment that this contract will resolve to YES, with trader confidence increasing to near-certainty in the final 24 hours of trading.

## Significant Price Movements

### Outcome: above $4604

#### 📈 April 16, 2026: 10.0pp spike

Price increased from 89.0% to 99.0%

**What happened:** No supporting research available for this anomaly.

### Outcome: above $4624

#### 📈 April 15, 2026: 11.0pp spike

Price increased from 88.0% to 99.0%

**What happened:** No supporting research available for this anomaly.

## Contract Snapshot

A "Yes" resolution occurs if the 1-minute gold candlestick's close price on April 16, 2026, at 5 PM EDT is above 4814 USD/t.oz; otherwise, it resolves to "No." The market closes at 5:00 PM EDT on April 16, 2026, with a projected payout at 6:00 PM EDT. Settlement is verified from Pyth - Gold (Metal.XAU/USD) and rounded to two decimal places, with specific rules for interpreting the 1-minute candlestick close time and using the most recently available data if official data is missing.

## Market Discussion

Limited public discussion available for this market.

## Market Data

| Contract | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | Last Price | Volume | Open Interest |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| above $4594 | 96% | 100% | 98% | $168 | $167 |
| above $4604 | 96% | 100% | 99% | $2 | $2 |
| above $4614 | 96% | 100% | 99% | $2 | $2 |
| above $4624 | 85% | 100% | 99% | $24 | $24 |
| above $4634 | 80% | 100% | 99% | $1 | $1 |
| above $4644 | 79% | 100% | 98% | $94 | $94 |
| above $4654 | 78% | 100% | 99% | $54 | $34 |
| above $4664 | 80% | 100% | 99% | $11 | $11 |
| above $4674 | 76% | 100% | 99% | $11 | $11 |
| above $4684 | 78% | 100% | 99% | $2 | $2 |
| above $4694 | 92% | 100% | 99% | $2 | $2 |
| above $4704 | 95% | 100% | 99% | $126 | $126 |
| above $4714 | 96% | 99% | 96% | $1,215 | $1,074 |
| above $4724 | 94% | 99% | 95% | $102 | $101 |
| above $4734 | 97% | 98% | 97% | $168.43 | $103.43 |
| above $4744 | 83% | 97% | 97% | $203 | $97 |
| above $4754 | 88% | 98% | 95% | $160 | $160 |
| above $4764 | 90% | 95% | 79% | $1,071.26 | $708.26 |
| above $4774 | 81% | 86% | 76% | $1,202.64 | $790 |
| above $4784 | 74% | 83% | 66% | $784.79 | $644.79 |
| above $4794 | 76% | 77% | 72% | $3,212.58 | $2,437.58 |
| above $4804 | 57% | 67% | 66% | $3,588.43 | $2,535.29 |
| above $4814 | 54% | 55% | 55% | $2,604.12 | $1,892.14 |
| above $4824 | 43% | 44% | 43% | $3,841.71 | $2,566.39 |
| above $4834 | 30% | 34% | 38% | $3,472 | $2,165 |
| above $4844 | 18% | 20% | 19% | $2,116.18 | $1,226.18 |
| above $4854 | 11% | 19% | 19% | $1,029 | $816 |
| above $4864 | 7% | 9% | 11% | $582 | $269 |
| above $4874 | 5% | 21% | 17% | $519 | $498 |
| above $4884 | 4% | 11% | 15% | $350 | $81 |
| above $4894 | 2% | 20% | 19% | $338 | $152 |
| above $4904 | 2% | 11% | 10% | $384 | $245 |
| above $4914 | 2% | 9% | 10% | $829 | $297 |
| above $4924 | 0% | 48% | 9% | $1 | $1 |
| above $4934 | 0% | 41% | 4% | $9 | $5 |
| above $4944 | 0% | 41% | 5% | $1 | $1 |
| above $4954 | 0% | 46% | 2% | $29 | $25 |
| above $4964 | 0% | 42% | 4% | $279 | $269 |
| above $4974 | 0% | 44% | 2% | $394 | $360 |
| above $4984 | 0% | 20% | 3% | $469 | $416 |

## Can Future COMEX Gold Institutional Order Flow Imbalance Be Predicted?

Net Institutional Order Flow Imbalance | Not available for April 16, 2026 (future market activity) [[^]](https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/metals/precious/gold.volume.html) |
Block Trade Data Availability | Detailed directional flow for specific intraday periods is not publicly accessible [[^]](https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/metals/precious/gold.volume.html) |
Nature of Block Trades | Privately negotiated transactions reported to the exchange [[^]](https://www.cmegroup.com/tools-information/blocktrades.html) |

**It is not possible to provide specific COMEX Gold order flow for a future date**

It is not possible to provide specific COMEX Gold order flow for a future date. It is not possible to provide the net institutional order flow imbalance for the most active COMEX Gold futures contract (GC) during the final two trading hours before the 5pm EDT settlement on April 16, 2026. This is because April 16, 2026, is a date in the future, and specific trading activity, including detailed order flow and directional block trade volumes with buy/sell information, can only be observed and recorded as trades are executed.

General information exists, but not future-dated institutional order flow. The research found that while general information about CME Group's Gold futures contracts, including concepts of volume, open interest [[^]](https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/metals/precious/gold.volume.html), settlement procedures [[^]](https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/metals/precious/gold.settlements.html), and descriptions of block trades [[^]](https://www.cmegroup.com/tools-information/blocktrades.html), is available, specific directional institutional order flow data for future dates is not. Block trades are defined as privately negotiated transactions that are subsequently reported to the exchange [[^]](https://www.cmegroup.com/tools-information/blocktrades.html).

Public **market** data sites lack this granular future data. Public **market** data sources, such as MarketWatch [[^]](https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/future/gcj26), CNBC [[^]](http://cnbc.com/quotes/@GC.1), or Barchart.com [[^]](https://www.barchart.com/stocks/quotes/GCJ26), do not offer real-time, future-dated, or granular historical data on the directional flow (buy versus sell) of institutional block trades for specific intraday periods. Such detailed order flow information, particularly for future dates, is simply not publicly accessible.

## Can Specific April 2026 COMEX Gold Options Data Be Directly Extracted?

Dealer Gamma Exposure | Not directly extractable from general portals [[^]](https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/metals/precious/gold.volume.options.html), [[^]](https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/metals/precious/gold.contractSpecs.options.html?af_js_web=true&af_ss_ui=true&af_ss_ver=2_2_0&anon_id=3f6835ca-759e-408e-86fd-329c5def279f&landing=%2Farticles%2Fkey-market-events-calendar&original_landing=eyJ1cmwiOiJodHRwczovL3N1cHBvcnQua3Jha2VuLmNvbS9pdC9hcnRpY2xlcy9rZXktbWFya2V0LWV2ZW50cy1jYWxlbmRhciIsInJlZmVycmVyIjoiIn0&pid=direct&videoId=6384731015112), [[^]](https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/metals/precious/gold-enhanced-delivery.calendar.options.html), [[^]](https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/metals/precious/gold-enhanced-delivery.calendar.html), [[^]](https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/metals/precious/gold.calendar.options.html), [[^]](https://www.barchart.com/futures/quotes/GCJ26/options/I0JG26[[%20filters%20]]) |
Open Interest Concentration | Requires interactive exploration on platforms like QuikStrike [[^]](https://www.cmegroup.com/tools-information/quikstrike/options-open-interest-profile-metals.html), [[^]](https://cmegroup.com/tools-information/quikstrike/options-open-interest-profile.html?pid=40) and OptionCharts [[^]](https://optioncharts.io/options/GOLD/open-interest) |
Specific Data Availability | Granular April 2026 COMEX Gold OGO data not directly provided [[^]](https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/metals/precious/gold.volume.options.html) |

**Dealer gamma exposure for April 2026 COMEX Gold options is unavailable**

Dealer gamma exposure for April 2026 COMEX Gold options is unavailable. Specific dealer gamma exposure for April 2026 COMEX Gold options (OGO) at strike prices above **$4600** cannot be directly extracted from the provided web research results. This is because dealer gamma exposure is a complex, calculated metric, and the available sources, such as CME Group's general volume and open interest pages [[^]](https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/metals/precious/gold.volume.options.html), option contract specifications [[^]](https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/metals/precious/gold.contractSpecs.options.html?af_js_web=true&af_ss_ui=true&af_ss_ver=2_2_0&anon_id=3f6835ca-759e-408e-86fd-329c5def279f&landing=%2Farticles%2Fkey-**market**-events-calendar&original_landing=eyJ1cmwiOiJodHRwczovL3N1cHBvcnQua3Jha2VuLmNvbS9pdC9hcnRpY2xlcy9rZXktbWFya2V0LWV2ZW50cy1jYWxlbmRhciIsInJlZmVycmVyIjoiIn0&pid=direct&videoId=6384731015112), calendars [[^]](https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/metals/precious/gold-enhanced-delivery.calendar.options.html), [[^]](https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/metals/precious/gold-enhanced-delivery.calendar.html), [[^]](https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/metals/precious/gold.calendar.options.html), or Barchart's options pricing page template [[^]](https://www.barchart.com/futures/quotes/GCJ26/options/I0JG26[[%20filters%20]]), do not directly provide this pre-calculated data point.

Open interest concentration requires further interactive exploration and filtering. While platforms like CME Group's QuikStrike Open Interest Profile [[^]](https://www.cmegroup.com/tools-information/quikstrike/options-open-interest-profile-metals.html), [[^]](https://cmegroup.com/tools-information/quikstrike/options-open-interest-profile.html?pid=40) and OptionCharts [[^]](https://optioncharts.io/options/GOLD/open-interest) are identified as sources for open interest data, the supplied URLs lead to general entry pages. To obtain the requested open interest concentration details for April 2026 COMEX Gold options (OGO) with strike prices above **$4600,** further interactive exploration and filtering on these platforms would be necessary. Consequently, without this specific data on dealer gamma exposure and detailed open interest concentration, a factual analysis of its potential influence on hedging activity into the close cannot be provided.

## Have Central Banks Issued Gold Reserve Policy Updates Post-April 2026?

US Treasury Latest Report | March 27, 2026 [[^]](https://home.treasury.gov/data/us-international-reserve-position/03272026) |
Federal Reserve Latest Statement | March 18, 2026 [[^]](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcminutes20260318.htm) |
People's Bank of China Latest Info | November 2025 [[^]](https://www.pbc.gov.cn/diaochatongjisi/attachDir/2025/11/2025111416370065184.htm) |

**No official statements or emergency communications have been found from the US Treasury, the Federal Reserve, or the People's Bank of China (PBC) concerning sovereign gold reserve policies or foreign exchange market interventions specifically since April 15, 2026**

No official statements or emergency communications have been found from the US Treasury, the Federal Reserve, or the People's Bank of China (PBC) concerning sovereign gold reserve policies or foreign exchange **market** interventions specifically since April 15, 2026. The available web research provides insights into earlier periods, not developments post-April 15, 2026, for these areas.

U.S. financial authorities released data and minutes predating mid-April 2026. For example, the U.S. Department of the Treasury's 'U.S. International Reserve Position' reports detail reserve holdings up to specific dates such as January 16, 2026 [[^]](https://home.treasury.gov/data/us-international-reserve-position/01162026), January 30, 2026 [[^]](https://home.treasury.gov/data/us-international-reserve-position/01302026), and March 27, 2026 [[^]](https://home.treasury.gov/data/us-international-reserve-position/03272026). Additionally, the 'January 2026 FX Report' discusses foreign exchange policies up to January 2026 [[^]](https://home.treasury.gov/system/files/136/January-2026-FX-Report.pdf). Similarly, information from the Federal Reserve includes the minutes from the Federal Open **Market** Committee (FOMC) meeting held on March 18, 2026, which outlined monetary policy discussions up to that specific date [[^]](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcminutes20260318.htm). All these documents precede the specified date of April 15, 2026.

China's central bank also provided only older policy communications. For the People's Bank of China, the available documents include an announcement from November 2025 [[^]](https://www.pbc.gov.cn/diaochatongjisi/attachDir/2025/11/2025111416370065184.htm) and a decision to raise the foreign exchange reserve requirement ratio from August 2025 [[^]](https://www.pbc.gov.cn/en/3688235/3688609/3688621/2025080817520129112/index.html). Therefore, these sources do not contain any statements or emergency communications issued by these central authorities after April 15, 2026.

## Where are key COMEX Gold futures long liquidation levels?

Crucial Support Liquidation | $2150-$2130 (Source: [[^]](https://www.tradingview.com/chart/GC1!/74UsfjRG-GOLD-UPDATE-March-24-2026/)) |
Intense Selling Zone | $2100-$2090 (Source: [[^]](https://www.tradingview.com/chart/GC1!/DmgtjPGv-The-Breakdown-Everyone-Sees-and-the-Level-Most-Ignore/)) |
Major Cluster Liquidation | $2080-$2060 (Source: [[^]](https://www.tradingview.com/chart/GC1!/74UsfjRG-GOLD-UPDATE-March-24-2026/)) |

**Significant long liquidation levels for COMEX Gold futures lie below current prices**

Significant long liquidation levels for COMEX Gold futures lie below current prices. A crucial support level and key area for potential liquidations is identified between **$2150** and **$2130** [[^]](https://www.tradingview.com/chart/GC1!/74UsfjRG-GOLD-UPDATE-March-24-2026/). A price drop below the **$2130** threshold could trigger further long liquidations due to increased margin calls on leveraged positions. Another critical zone with a notable concentration of long interest is observed around **$2100**-**$2090,** where forced selling could intensify if this level is breached [[^]](https://www.tradingview.com/chart/GC1!/DmgtjPGv-The-Breakdown-Everyone-Sees-and-the-Level-Most-Ignore/).

Deeper, more substantial liquidation clusters exist, posing significant **market** risks. A stronger support zone and major cluster of open interest are identified around **$2080**-**$2060** [[^]](https://www.tradingview.com/chart/GC1!/74UsfjRG-GOLD-UPDATE-March-24-2026/). This area represents a more substantial concentration of leveraged long positions, where a move below these levels could potentially lead to a significant cascading effect [[^]](https://www.tradingview.com/chart/GC1!/74UsfjRG-GOLD-UPDATE-March-24-2026/). Furthermore, a large cluster of open interest is noted around **$2050,** which, if hit, could accelerate stop-loss triggers and margin calls, further exacerbating a downward price movement [[^]](https://www.tradingview.com/chart/GC1!/DmgtjPGv-The-Breakdown-Everyone-Sees-and-the-Level-Most-Ignore/). Past events, such as an "**$11** Billion Liquidation Wave of March 2026" primarily driven by increasing margin calls on leveraged long positions, underscore these potential scenarios [[^]](https://investor.wedbush.com/wedbush/article/marketminute-2026-3-31-the-great-gold-exodus-inside-the-11-billion-liquidation-wave-of-march-2026).

## How is COMEX Gold Futures Price Settled on April 16, 2026?

Settlement Source | Official daily settlement price for COMEX Gold Futures (GC) by CME Group (CME Group [[^]](https://www.cmegroup.com/confluence/display/EPICSANDBOX/Gold)) |
Resolution Time | 5:00 PM EDT on April 16, 2026 (CME Group [[^]](https://www.cmegroup.com/confluence/display/EPICSANDBOX/Gold)) |
Non-standard Procedures | None anticipated; standard trading day expected (Based on market schedules [[^]](https://www.cmegroup.com/trading-hours.html)) |

**The gold market's settlement price is determined by CME Group**

The gold **market**'s settlement price is determined by CME Group. The precise settlement data source for the "Gold price on Apr 16, 2026 at 5pm EDT?" prediction **market** is the official daily settlement price for the COMEX Gold Futures (GC) contract, which is determined and published by the CME Group [[^]](https://www.cmegroup.com/confluence/display/EPICSANDBOX/Gold). This contract, identified by the ticker symbol GC, trades on CME Globex, the CME Group's electronic platform [[^]](https://www.cmegroup.com/**market**-regulation/files/gold-futures-and-options-fact-card.pdf). Exchange officials establish the official daily settlement price for CME Group products based on trading activity observed near the end of the Regular Trading Hours (RTH) session, with publication occurring after the CME Globex session concludes [[^]](https://www.cmegroup.com/confluence/display/EPICSANDBOX/Gold).

April 16, 2026, at 5 PM EDT aligns with regular trading. The resolution time of April 16, 2026, at 5:00 PM EDT corresponds precisely to the standard daily close of the CME Globex electronic trading session for Gold Futures [[^]](https://www.cmegroup.com/confluence/display/EPICSANDBOX/Gold). CME Globex facilitates trading from Sunday through Friday, with its electronic trading session for Gold Futures closing daily at 5:00 PM ET for a mandatory 60-minute break [[^]](https://www.cmegroup.com/confluence/display/EPICSANDBOX/Gold). As April 16, 2026, falls within Daylight Saving Time, 5:00 PM ET is equivalent to 5:00 PM EDT.

No special events will affect April 16, 2026, gold prices. April 16, 2026, is not designated as a holiday or a day with non-standard trading hours for COMEX Gold Futures [[^]](https://www.cmegroup.com/trading-hours.html). Consequently, there are no unusual **market** closing auctions or special procedures anticipated that could lead to exceptional price action at 5:00 PM EDT. While the daily close of any financial **market** may inherently experience increased trading volume or volatility, this is considered a standard **market** characteristic rather than an unusual procedure specifically tied to this date [[^]](https://www.cmegroup.com/confluence/display/EPICSANDBOX/Gold).

## What Could Change the Odds

**Key takeaway.** Catalyst analysis unavailable.

## Key Dates & Catalysts

- **Expiration:** April 23, 2026
- **Closes:** April 16, 2026

## Decision-Flipping Events

- Catalyst analysis unavailable.

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## Historical Resolutions

**Historical Resolutions:** 20 markets in this series

**Outcomes:** 0 resolved YES, 20 resolved NO

**Recent resolutions:**

- KXGOLDD-26APR1517-T5022: NO (Apr 15, 2026)
- KXGOLDD-26APR1517-T5012: NO (Apr 15, 2026)
- KXGOLDD-26APR1517-T5002: NO (Apr 15, 2026)
- KXGOLDD-26APR1517-T4992: NO (Apr 15, 2026)
- KXGOLDD-26APR1517-T4982: NO (Apr 15, 2026)

## Disclaimer

This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or trading advice.
Prediction markets involve risk of loss. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
We are not affiliated with Kalshi or any prediction market platform. Market data may be delayed or incomplete.

### Data Sources & Model Transparency

**Data Sources:** Octagon Deep Research aggregates information from multiple sources including news, filings, and market data.

**Freshness:** Analysis is generated periodically and may not reflect the latest developments. Verify critical information from primary sources.