# Copper price on Apr 16, 2026 at 5pm EDT?

Apr 16, 2026 at 5pm EDT

Updated: April 16, 2026

Category: Commodities

Tags: Metals

HTML: /markets/commodities/metals/copper-price-on-apr-16-2026-at-5pm-edt/

## Short Answer

**Key takeaway.** Both the **model** and the **market** expect the copper price on April 16, 2026, to be above **$5.60**, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.

## Key Claims (January 2026)

**- - Copper reached a six-week high just before the specified date.** - Strategic supply deficits critically impact global copper prices.
- Immediate geopolitical optimism contributed to recent copper price surges.
- Many experts anticipate a bullish trend for copper on April 16.
- Global economic data releases will significantly influence copper prices.
- Some forecasts suggest a potential copper price decline by mid-2026.

### Why This Matters (GEO)

- AI agents extract claims, not arguments.
- Improves citation probability in summaries and answer cards.
- Enables fact stitching across multiple sources.

## Executive Verdict

**Key takeaway.** **Model** sees **99.1%** **probability** vs 91c **market** price, implying an 8.1-point gap for copper's elevated supply-squeezed price.

### Who Wins and Why

| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| above $5.60 | 91.0% | 99.1% | Model higher by 8.1pp |
| above $6.08 | 45.0% | 50.9% | Model higher by 5.9pp |
| above $6.10 | 47.0% | 50.9% | Model higher by 3.9pp |

## Model vs Market

| Outcome | Market Probability | Octagon Model Probability |
| --- | --- | --- |
| above $5.60 | 91.0% | 99.1% |
| above $6.08 | 45.0% | 50.9% |
| above $6.10 | 47.0% | 50.9% |
| above $6.06 | 56.0% | 59.8% |
| above $5.92 | 99.0% | 99.1% |
| above $6.12 | 11.0% | 12.6% |
| above $6.04 | 76.0% | 78.7% |
| above $5.64 | 89.0% | 99.1% |
| above $5.62 | 89.0% | 99.1% |
| above $6.16 | 7.0% | 9.2% |
| above $6.14 | 9.0% | 10.3% |
| above $5.66 | 90.0% | 99.1% |
| above $5.88 | 94.0% | 99.1% |
| above $6.20 | 5.0% | 9.2% |
| above $5.84 | 92.0% | 99.1% |
| above $6.22 | 8.0% | 9.2% |
| above $6.28 | 5.0% | 5.8% |
| above $5.68 | 89.0% | 99.1% |
| above $6.24 | 7.0% | 8.1% |
| above $5.94 | 97.0% | 99.1% |
| above $6.18 | 6.0% | 9.2% |
| above $5.98 | 97.0% | 97.4% |
| above $6 | 94.0% | 94.8% |
| above $5.96 | 99.0% | 99.1% |
| above $6.26 | 6.0% | 6.9% |
| above $5.70 | 99.0% | 99.1% |
| above $5.72 | 99.0% | 99.1% |
| above $5.74 | 99.0% | 99.1% |
| above $5.76 | 99.0% | 99.1% |
| above $5.78 | 99.0% | 99.1% |
| above $5.80 | 99.0% | 99.1% |
| above $5.82 | 99.0% | 99.1% |
| above $5.86 | 99.0% | 99.1% |
| above $5.90 | 99.0% | 99.1% |
| above $6.34 | 5.0% | 5.8% |
| above $6.36 | 3.0% | 5.8% |
| above $6.38 | 5.0% | 5.8% |
| above $6.02 | 0.0% | 78.7% |
| above $6.30 | 0.0% | 5.8% |
| above $6.32 | 0.0% | 5.8% |

- Expiration: April 16, 2026

## Market Behavior & Price Dynamics

The market has traded between 0.0% and 99.0% YES probability, with a current reading of 91.0%. Total volume: 1,246 contracts.

## Contract Snapshot

This market resolves to "Yes" if the 1-minute candlestick close price for the CCK6 (May 2026) copper contract on April 16, 2026, at 5 PM EDT is above 6.08 USD/Lbs; otherwise, it resolves to "No." The settlement value, verified by Pyth, is rounded to two decimal places and represents the price at the end of the 1-minute interval immediately preceding 5:00:00 PM EDT. Settlement follows a contract rollover rule, and in the event of missing data, the most recently available published data will be used.

## Market Discussion

Limited public discussion available for this market.

## Market Data

| Contract | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | Last Price | Volume | Open Interest |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| above $5.60 | 91% | 100% | 91% | $1,246 | $838 |
| above $5.62 | 80% | 100% | 89% | $168 | $168 |
| above $5.64 | 83% | 100% | 89% | $175 | $166 |
| above $5.66 | 82% | 98% | 90% | $112 | $109 |
| above $5.68 | 78% | 100% | 89% | $32 | $32 |
| above $5.70 | 78% | 100% | 99% | $1 | $1 |
| above $5.72 | 78% | 100% | 99% | $1 | $1 |
| above $5.74 | 78% | 100% | 99% | $1 | $1 |
| above $5.76 | 80% | 100% | 99% | $1 | $1 |
| above $5.78 | 80% | 100% | 99% | $1 | $1 |
| above $5.80 | 80% | 99% | 99% | $1 | $1 |
| above $5.82 | 81% | 100% | 99% | $1 | $1 |
| above $5.84 | 81% | 98% | 92% | $36 | $36 |
| above $5.86 | 81% | 100% | 99% | $1 | $1 |
| above $5.88 | 81% | 100% | 94% | $101 | $101 |
| above $5.90 | 73% | 100% | 99% | $1 | $1 |
| above $5.92 | 88% | 100% | 99% | $491 | $491 |
| above $5.94 | 70% | 100% | 97% | $19 | $11 |
| above $5.96 | 67% | 100% | 99% | $7 | $7 |
| above $5.98 | 64% | 98% | 97% | $18 | $18 |
| above $6 | 90% | 98% | 94% | $15 | $15 |
| above $6.02 | 83% | 98% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| above $6.04 | 76% | 87% | 76% | $208.41 | $183.41 |
| above $6.06 | 62% | 77% | 56% | $535.85 | $173.7 |
| above $6.08 | 40% | 57% | 45% | $1,201.6 | $377.44 |
| above $6.10 | 20% | 41% | 47% | $604.13 | $422.13 |
| above $6.12 | 16% | 33% | 11% | $334 | $202 |
| above $6.14 | 3% | 42% | 9% | $113 | $102 |
| above $6.16 | 2% | 38% | 7% | $145 | $120 |
| above $6.18 | 0% | 35% | 6% | $19 | $6 |
| above $6.20 | 0% | 34% | 5% | $40 | $20 |
| above $6.22 | 0% | 31% | 8% | $33 | $6 |
| above $6.24 | 0% | 29% | 7% | $24 | $7 |
| above $6.26 | 0% | 28% | 6% | $5 | $5 |
| above $6.28 | 0% | 26% | 5% | $33 | $33 |
| above $6.30 | 0% | 25% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| above $6.32 | 0% | 25% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| above $6.34 | 0% | 25% | 5% | $1 | $1 |
| above $6.36 | 0% | 25% | 3% | $1 | $1 |
| above $6.38 | 0% | 24% | 5% | $1 | $1 |

## What Global Supply Deficits Impact Copper Prices in 2026?

Global Market Outlook | Significant supply deficits and strategic squeeze expected in 2026 [[^]](https://longbridge.com/news/280866182) |
Specific Supply Shock | Ivanhoe Mines slashes production forecasts due to DRC flooding [[^]](https://investor.wedbush.com/wedbush/article/marketminute-2026-4-3-copper-supply-shock-ivanhoe-mines-slashes-production-forecast-amid-drc-flooding-crisis) |
Concentrate Shortage Impact | Drives treatment and refining charges (TC/RCs) to historic lows [[^]](https://www.bigmint.co/insights/detail/global-copper-concentrate-shortage-drives-tc-rcs-to-historic-low-736950) |

**Global copper prices will primarily be driven by strategic supply deficits**

Global copper prices will primarily be driven by strategic supply deficits. The most critical factor determining copper prices on April 16, 2026, is projected to be the persistent strategic supply squeeze and global supply deficits within the copper **market** [[^]](https://longbridge.com/news/280866182). Multiple outlooks for 2026 forecast that the supply of copper will be insufficient to meet burgeoning demand, creating a fundamental imbalance expected to drive prices upward [[^]](https://longbridge.com/news/280866182). This significant supply-side pressure is anticipated to be robust enough to offset other near-term headwinds that might otherwise temper price increases [[^]](https://www.tradingpedia.com/2026/04/08/copper-rebounds-as-supply-risks-offset-near-term-headwinds/).

Specific production disruptions are exacerbating the global supply scarcity. For instance, Ivanhoe Mines, a major producer, has significantly reduced its production forecast following a severe flooding crisis in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), directly contributing to the overall **market** deficit [[^]](https://investor.wedbush.com/wedbush/article/marketminute-2026-4-3-copper-supply-shock-ivanhoe-mines-slashes-production-forecast-amid-drc-flooding-crisis). Furthermore, the **market** is experiencing a profound global copper concentrate shortage, which has led to treatment and refining charges (TC/RCs) plummeting to historic lows, signaling a severe scarcity of the raw material needed by smelters [[^]](https://www.bigmint.co/insights/detail/global-copper-concentrate-shortage-drives-tc-rcs-to-historic-low-736950). This concentrate shortage represents a critical bottleneck anticipated to endure through the 2026 period [[^]](https://www.bigmint.co/insights/detail/global-copper-concentrate-shortage-drives-tc-rcs-to-historic-low-736950). The overarching inability of the global **market** to adequately supply this essential industrial metal remains the paramount determinant of its price, surpassing demand-side factors and governmental actions [[^]](https://longbridge.com/news/280866182).

## What Factors Influence Copper Price Outlook for April 2026?

Copper Price Status | Six-week high (April 15, 2026) [[^]](https://energynews.oedigital.com/mineral-resources/2026/04/15/copper-reaches-sixweek-high-amid-hopes-for-new-usiran-peace-talks) |
Immediate Market Catalyst | Hopes for new US-Iran peace talks (April 15, 2026) [[^]](https://business.financialpost.com/pmn/business-pmn/copper-erases-middle-east-war-losses-as-traders-eye-peace-talks) |
2026 Annual Price Outlook | Overall decline projected (Goldman Sachs, April 2026) [[^]](https://www.recyclingtoday.com/news/goldman-sachs-research-copper-pries-to-decline-in-2026/) |

**Copper prices surged due to immediate geopolitical optimism near April 16**

Copper prices surged due to immediate geopolitical optimism near April 16. In the immediate lead-up to April 16, 2026, copper experienced significant upward momentum, reaching a six-week high on April 15, 2026, and recovering previous losses related to the Middle East conflict [[^]](https://business.financialpost.com/pmn/business-pmn/copper-erases-middle-east-war-losses-as-traders-eye-peace-talks). This rally was primarily driven by optimistic expectations surrounding potential new peace talks between the United States and Iran, which positively influenced trader sentiment and caused copper to hover at a peak [[^]](https://business.financialpost.com/pmn/business-pmn/copper-erases-middle-east-war-losses-as-traders-eye-peace-talks).

Longer-term projections diverge despite near-term supply concerns. Beyond these immediate geopolitical influences, the broader **market** outlook for April 2026 also points to a 'strategic supply squeeze' as a significant underlying factor [[^]](https://metal-sentinel.com/blog/copper-**market**-outlook-april-2026-navigating-the-strategic-supply-squeeze-BZ41T). However, this positive short-term news contrasts with some longer-term projections; for example, Goldman Sachs research from April 2026 forecasted an overall decline in copper prices throughout the full year 2026 [[^]](https://www.recyclingtoday.com/news/goldman-sachs-research-copper-pries-to-decline-in-2026/). Earlier technical analysis on April 3, 2026, identified support at **$5.50** with resistance at **$5.70** [[^]](https://www.dailyforex.com/forex-technical-analysis/2026/04/copper-analysis-3-april-2026/243478), highlighting the complex interplay of immediate relief, supply constraints, and diverging institutional projections impacting copper price probabilities.

## What is the Copper Price Outlook for Mid-2026?

Mid-2026 Copper Price Forecast | Decline or correction expected [[^]](https://investor.wedbush.com/wedbush/article/marketminute-2026-3-2-coppers-red-gold-fever-breaks-market-braces-for-a-mid-2026-correction-after-record-peak) |
Goldman Sachs 2026 Outlook | Cut forecast due to global growth concerns [[^]](http://www.econotimes.com/Goldman-Sachs-Cuts-2026-Copper-Price-Forecast-Amid-Global-Growth-Concerns-1738301) |
Key Downward Pressure | Anticipated larger market surplus [[^]](https://www.sahmcapital.com/news/content/update-1-goldman-sachs-cuts-2026-copper-price-outlook-sees-larger-market-surplus-2026-04-07) |

**Analysts are forecasting a potential decline or correction in copper prices by mid-2026**

Analysts are forecasting a potential decline or correction in copper prices by mid-2026. This outlook challenges the current **market** consensus, with Goldman Sachs notably cutting its 2026 copper price forecast [[^]](https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/copper-prices-forecast-to-decline-from-record-highs-in-2026). The firm predicts prices will decline from recent record highs, citing primary concerns over global growth and an anticipated larger **market** surplus which is expected to exert downward pressure on prices [[^]](http://www.econotimes.com/Goldman-Sachs-Cuts-2026-Copper-Price-Forecast-Amid-Global-Growth-Concerns-1738301).

Further supporting this bearish adjustment, Wedbush analysts also suggest the **market** should prepare for a mid-2026 correction. They indicate this decline will follow what they describe as "record peaks" [[^]](https://investor.wedbush.com/wedbush/article/marketminute-2026-3-2-coppers-red-gold-fever-breaks-**market**-braces-for-a-mid-2026-correction-after-record-peak). This implies that current elevated prices may not be sustainable, and a rebalancing is likely due to factors such as easing demand or increased supply.

## What Are Expert Predictions for Copper Prices in 2026?

Bull Case Drivers | Expected supply deficits and increased demand from artificial intelligence (AI) [[^]](https://longbridge.com/news/280866182) |
Goldman Sachs Outlook | Forecast to decline from potential record highs in 2026 [[^]](https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/copper-prices-forecast-to-decline-from-record-highs-in-2026) |
Informed Trader Sentiment | Indicated by CFTC speculative net positions [[^]](https://uk.investing.com/economic-calendar/cftc-copper-speculative-positions-1620) |

**Many informed participants anticipate a bullish trend for copper prices on April 16, 2026**

Many informed participants anticipate a bullish trend for copper prices on April 16, 2026. This outlook is primarily fueled by expected supply deficits and robust demand, particularly from the artificial intelligence (AI) sector [[^]](https://longbridge.com/news/280866182). This perspective is further supported by observations of "Big Money" and institutional rotation into copper, signaling a strategic shift in investments toward the metal in 2026 [[^]](https://longbridge.com/news/280866182). Institutions such as J.P. Morgan also contribute to the broader discourse with their "Copper **Market** Outlook" for 2026 [[^]](https://www.jpmorgan.com/insights/global-research/commodities/copper-outlook).

However, expert opinions on copper prices are not uniformly bullish. Goldman Sachs, for example, forecasts that copper prices are "forecast to decline somewhat from record highs in 2026," offering a contrasting view [[^]](https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/copper-prices-forecast-to-decline-from-record-highs-in-2026). The collective sentiment of informed traders can also be inferred from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) copper speculative net positions, which reflect professional traders' bets on future price movements [[^]](https://uk.investing.com/economic-calendar/cftc-copper-speculative-positions-1620). Additionally, prediction markets, including those hosted by Kalshi and Gemini, actively track copper price predictions around April 16, 2026, aggregating expectations from a diverse range of participants [[^]](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxcopperd/daily-copper/kxcopperd-26apr1617).

## What Factors Will Shape Copper Prices on April 16, 2026?

Economic Data Releases | US and global economic indicators impacting demand outlook, inflation, and currency strength [[^]](https://forex.tradingcharts.com/economic_calendar/2026-04-16.html?code=USD+%3Fiframe%3Dtrue) |
LME Price Benchmarks | London Metal Exchange Official Price and Closing Price for copper [[^]](https://www.lme.com/en/market-data/lme-reference-prices/lme-closing-price) |
LME Warehouse Stocks | Daily reports indicating changes in physical supply and demand [[^]](https://www.lme.com/en/market-data/reports-and-data/warehouse-and-stocks-reports) |

**Global economic data releases will significantly influence copper prices on April 16, 2026**

Global economic data releases will significantly influence copper prices on April 16, 2026. Scheduled announcements from major global economies, especially the United States, will include indicators such as inflation (e.g., CPI), manufacturing activity (e.g., PMI), employment figures, and central bank policy decisions [[^]](https://forex.tradingcharts.com/economic_calendar/2026-04-16.html?code=USD+%3Fiframe%3Dtrue). Unexpected outcomes in these economic indicators could impact industrial demand, currency valuations (which affect dollar-denominated commodities like copper), and overall **market** sentiment, potentially leading to substantial price movements.

Daily **market** operations and LME benchmarks will contribute to copper's price. The London Metal Exchange (LME) will set its Official Price around 7:30 AM EDT and its Closing Price around 12:00 PM EDT, which serve as crucial global benchmarks for the metal [[^]](https://www.lme.com/en/**market**-data/lme-reference-prices/lme-closing-price). Additionally, daily LME warehouse stock reports, providing transparency on physical inventory levels, will be released and analyzed by the **market** throughout the day [[^]](https://www.lme.com/en/**market**-data/reports-and-data/warehouse-and-stocks-reports).

Copper futures trading on CME will reflect ongoing **market** expectations. Copper futures contracts traded on the CME Group will be actively trading and undergoing settlement procedures, reflecting current **market** expectations and contributing to the global price discovery process leading up to the 5 PM EDT resolution time [[^]](https://www.cmegroup.com/confluence/display/EPICSANDBOX/Copper). Although specific major unforeseen events cannot be predicted, the cumulative effect of these scheduled economic data releases and routine **market** mechanisms will define the copper price on April 16, 2026.

## What Could Change the Odds

**Key takeaway.** Catalyst analysis unavailable.

## Key Dates & Catalysts

- **Expiration:** April 23, 2026
- **Closes:** April 16, 2026

## Decision-Flipping Events

- Catalyst analysis unavailable.

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## Historical Resolutions

**Historical Resolutions:** 20 markets in this series

**Outcomes:** 0 resolved YES, 20 resolved NO

**Recent resolutions:**

- KXCOPPERD-26APR1517-T6.58: NO (Apr 15, 2026)
- KXCOPPERD-26APR1517-T6.56: NO (Apr 15, 2026)
- KXCOPPERD-26APR1517-T6.54: NO (Apr 15, 2026)
- KXCOPPERD-26APR1517-T6.52: NO (Apr 15, 2026)
- KXCOPPERD-26APR1517-T6.50: NO (Apr 15, 2026)

## Disclaimer

This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or trading advice.
Prediction markets involve risk of loss. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
We are not affiliated with Kalshi or any prediction market platform. Market data may be delayed or incomplete.

### Data Sources & Model Transparency

**Data Sources:** Octagon Deep Research aggregates information from multiple sources including news, filings, and market data.

**Freshness:** Analysis is generated periodically and may not reflect the latest developments. Verify critical information from primary sources.