# Soybeans price on Apr 30, 2026 at 5pm EDT?

Apr 30, 2026 at 5pm EDT

Updated: April 29, 2026

Category: Commodities

Tags: Agriculture

HTML: /markets/commodities/agriculture/soybeans-price-on-apr-30-2026-at-5pm-edt/

## Short Answer

**The model sees potential mispricing: the soybeans price will be above 1066.99¢, with 96.5% model probability versus 80.0% market probability.** This divergence indicates the **model** places greater emphasis on increased demand for soybean oil and potential La Niña risks offsetting high production forecasts.

## Key Claims (January 2026)

**- - U.S.** and Brazil soybean production is significantly higher for 2025/2026.
- China's sow inventory and pig herd are projected to decrease.
- U.S. EPA's 2026 RVOs boost soybean oil demand significantly.
- Increased U.S. soybean acreage adds to 2026 supply pressure.
- La Niña forecast through early 2026 poses South American weather risk.

### Why This Matters (GEO)

- AI agents extract claims, not arguments.
- Improves citation probability in summaries and answer cards.
- Enables fact stitching across multiple sources.

## Executive Verdict

**Key takeaway.** **Model**'s **96.5%** for lower prices due to supply pressure exceeds 80c **market**, implying a 1.2x payout.

### Who Wins and Why

| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| above 1166.99¢ | 90.0% | 83.5% | Market higher by 6.5pp |
| above 1156.99¢ | 85.0% | 83.5% | Market higher by 1.5pp |
| above 1176.99¢ | 74.0% | 61.4% | Market higher by 12.6pp |

## Model vs Market

| Outcome | Market Probability | Octagon Model Probability |
| --- | --- | --- |
| above 1166.99¢ | 90.0% | 83.5% |
| above 1156.99¢ | 85.0% | 83.5% |
| above 1176.99¢ | 74.0% | 61.4% |
| above 1126.99¢ | 91.0% | 89.8% |
| above 1256.99¢ | 4.0% | 2.2% |
| above 1136.99¢ | 94.0% | 89.8% |
| above 1146.99¢ | 88.0% | 83.5% |
| above 1186.99¢ | 66.0% | 52.0% |
| above 1236.99¢ | 12.0% | 6.9% |
| above 1116.99¢ | 92.0% | 89.8% |
| above 1246.99¢ | 1.0% | 2.2% |
| above 1196.99¢ | 44.0% | 30.3% |
| above 1216.99¢ | 23.0% | 14.1% |
| above 1226.99¢ | 16.0% | 9.4% |
| above 1206.99¢ | 23.0% | 14.1% |
| above 1076.99¢ | 98.0% | 96.5% |
| above 1066.99¢ | 80.0% | 96.5% |
| above 1086.99¢ | 94.0% | 89.8% |
| above 1096.99¢ | 93.0% | 89.8% |
| above 1106.99¢ | 0.0% | 89.8% |

- Expiration: April 30, 2026

## Market Behavior & Price Dynamics

This market has exhibited a volatile but generally upward trend, moving from a starting probability of 66.0% to a current price of 80.0%. The most significant price action occurred in the last week of April. The market experienced a dramatic surge, jumping from 70.0% to a peak of 98.0% on April 26th, followed by a sharp pullback to 80.0% on April 28th. This period of high volatility also included several other double-digit percentage point swings, indicating significant disagreement or rapidly changing expectations among participants. Given the lack of specific news or external context provided, the direct catalysts for these sharp movements cannot be determined from the available chart data alone.

The total trading volume of 51 contracts is relatively low, which suggests that the market may be thin. In such an environment, even small trades can cause outsized price swings, which could explain some of the observed volatility. The peak at 98.0% appears to have formed a strong resistance level, as the price quickly retreated after reaching it. A potential support level may exist around the 69-70% mark, a price point the market pivoted around multiple times before its late-April surge. Despite the recent drop, the current 80.0% price indicates that market sentiment remains strongly bullish, implying a high perceived probability that soybean prices will meet the contract's resolution criteria. However, the failure to hold the 98.0% level introduces some uncertainty and suggests that conviction may have slightly weakened from its absolute peak.

## Significant Price Movements

### Outcome: above 1066.99¢

#### 📉 April 28, 2026: 18.0pp drop

Price decreased from 98.0% to 80.0%

**What happened:** No supporting research available for this anomaly.

#### 📈 April 26, 2026: 28.0pp spike

Price increased from 70.0% to 98.0%

**What happened:** No supporting research available for this anomaly.

#### 📈 April 25, 2026: 13.0pp spike

Price increased from 56.0% to 69.0%

**What happened:** No supporting research available for this anomaly.

#### 📉 April 21, 2026: 9.0pp drop

Price decreased from 70.0% to 61.0%

**What happened:** No supporting research available for this anomaly.

### Outcome: above 1106.99¢

#### 📈 April 27, 2026: 10.0pp spike

Price increased from 53.0% to 63.0%

**What happened:** No supporting research available for this anomaly.

## Contract Snapshot

This market resolves to "Yes" if the 1-minute candlestick close price for soybeans on April 30, 2026, at 5 PM EDT is above 1186.99 USd/Bu; otherwise, it resolves to "No." The outcome is verified using data from Trading Economics, with the settlement value rounded to the nearest two decimal places. Trading for this market closes at 5:00 PM EDT on April 30, 2026, and payouts are projected for 6:00 PM EDT on the same day.

## Market Discussion

Limited public discussion available for this market.

## Market Data

| Contract | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | Last Price | Volume | Open Interest |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| above 1066.99¢ | 70% | 99% | 80% | $51.25 | $51.25 |
| above 1076.99¢ | 62% | 99% | 98% | $90.25 | $90.25 |
| above 1086.99¢ | 76% | 98% | 94% | $5 | $5 |
| above 1096.99¢ | 67% | 98% | 93% | $5 | $5 |
| above 1106.99¢ | 66% | 98% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| above 1116.99¢ | 71% | 98% | 92% | $300 | $300 |
| above 1126.99¢ | 68% | 97% | 91% | $932 | $931 |
| above 1136.99¢ | 95% | 97% | 94% | $440.14 | $407.14 |
| above 1146.99¢ | 77% | 98% | 88% | $422.18 | $307.1 |
| above 1156.99¢ | 88% | 97% | 85% | $3,661.76 | $2,961.83 |
| above 1166.99¢ | 90% | 93% | 90% | $3,813.59 | $2,355.69 |
| above 1176.99¢ | 86% | 95% | 74% | $1,150.48 | $905.45 |
| above 1186.99¢ | 69% | 78% | 66% | $388.38 | $183.41 |
| above 1196.99¢ | 17% | 49% | 44% | $217.11 | $183.11 |
| above 1206.99¢ | 2% | 39% | 23% | $123 | $122 |
| above 1216.99¢ | 2% | 34% | 23% | $160.36 | $34.52 |
| above 1226.99¢ | 1% | 22% | 16% | $146 | $78 |
| above 1236.99¢ | 1% | 18% | 12% | $379 | $101 |
| above 1246.99¢ | 1% | 21% | 1% | $234 | $117 |
| above 1256.99¢ | 7% | 15% | 4% | $679 | $354 |

## What is the 2025/2026 U.S. and Brazil soybean production forecast?

2025/2026 Combined Production Forecast | 302.8 million tonnes [[^]](https://apps.fas.usda.gov/PSDOnline/Circulars/2025/05/production.pdf) |
Trailing 5-Year Average Production | 253.16 million tonnes [[^]](https://apps.fas.usda.gov/PSDOnline/Circulars/2025/05/production.pdf) |
Projected Increase from Average | 19.6% [[^]](https://apps.fas.usda.gov/PSDOnline/Circulars/2025/05/production.pdf) |

**The USDA and CONAB project 302.8 million tonnes of soybeans for the 2025/2026 season**

The USDA and CONAB project 302.8 million tonnes of soybeans for the 2025/2026 season. Initial forecasts for the upcoming harvest season from the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) for the U.S. and Brazil's National Food Supply Company (CONAB) indicate a combined soybean production total of 302.8 million tonnes [[^]](https://apps.fas.usda.gov/PSDOnline/Circulars/2025/05/production.pdf). This comprises a U.S. production forecast of 125.2 million tonnes from the USDA [[^]](https://apps.fas.usda.gov/PSDOnline/Circulars/2025/05/production.pdf), alongside CONAB's projection of 177.6 million tonnes for Brazil for the same period [[^]](https://www.gov.br/conab/pt-br/acesso-a-informacao/institucional/publicacoes/perspectivas-para-a-agropecuaria/perspectivas-para-a-agropecuaria-volume-13-safra-2025-2026/projections-for-brazilian-agriculture-202526.pdf).

The 2025/2026 forecast significantly exceeds the trailing 5-year average combined supply. This anticipated production of 302.8 million tonnes marks a substantial increase compared to the average combined U.S. and Brazil soybean supply of 253.16 million tonnes over the 2019/2020 through 2023/2024 marketing years [[^]](https://apps.fas.usda.gov/PSDOnline/Circulars/2025/05/production.pdf). During this historical period, the U.S. averaged 112.36 million tonnes and Brazil 140.8 million tonnes annually [[^]](https://apps.fas.usda.gov/PSDOnline/Circulars/2025/05/production.pdf). The projected 2025/2026 output surpasses this 5-year average by 49.64 million tonnes, representing an estimated increase of approximately **19.6%** [[^]](https://apps.fas.usda.gov/PSDOnline/Circulars/2025/05/production.pdf).

## What are China's projected sow inventory and pig herd for early 2026?

Projected Sow Inventory (End 2025) | 39.61 million head [[^]](https://www.boyar.cn/article/1247857.html) |
Year-on-Year Sow Inventory Change | 2.9% decrease [[^]](https://www.boyar.cn/article/1247857.html) |
MOA's Stable Sow Herd Range | 39 million to 41 million head [[^]](https://www.moa.gov.cn/ztzl/szcpxx/jdsj/2025/202506/) |

**China's National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) projects a decrease in sow inventory by late 2025**

China's National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) projects a decrease in sow inventory by late 2025. The national sow inventory is projected to reach 39.61 million head by the end of 2025, reflecting a **2.9%** decrease [[^]](https://www.boyar.cn/article/1247857.html). This figure serves as a crucial leading indicator for the overall pig herd size and, consequently, the demand for soybean meal in early 2026. The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs (MOA) relies on NBS data when formulating its **market** assessments and policies [[^]](https://www.moa.gov.cn/ztzl/szcpxx/jdsj/2025/202506/).

The sow herd size directly impacts future pig production and feed demand. A projected sow inventory of 39.61 million head by late 2025 directly dictates the breeding capacity and the number of **market**-ready pigs in the subsequent period, extending through early 2026. This projection provides a clear trajectory for pig production and the associated demand for feedstuffs like soybean meal. To ensure **market** equilibrium and food security, the MOA aims to maintain the national sow herd within a stable range, typically between 39 million and 41 million head [[^]](https://www.moa.gov.cn/ztzl/szcpxx/jdsj/2025/202506/).

## What is the La Niña Forecast for South America's 2025-2026 Growing Season?

La Niña Probability (Nov 2025-Jan 2026) | 60-70% (NOAA CPC) [[^]](https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CDB/CDB_Archive_html/bulletin_012026/Forecast/forecast.shtml) |
La Niña Probability (Dec 2025-Feb 2026) | 50-60% (NOAA CPC) [[^]](https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CDB/CDB_Archive_html/bulletin_012026/Forecast/forecast.shtml) |
ENSO-Neutral Probability (Dec 2025-Feb 2026) | 30-40% [[^]](https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CDB/CDB_Archive_html/bulletin_012026/Forecast/forecast.shtml) |

**Major climate agencies forecast high likelihood of La Niña through early 2026**

Major climate agencies forecast high likelihood of La Niña through early 2026. Major climate agencies, including the NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC) and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI), have projected a high likelihood of La Niña conditions persisting through the South American growing season from November 2025 to February 2026. Forecasts indicated a 60-**70%** chance of La Niña during the November 2025-January 2026 period, with this **probability** slightly decreasing to 50-**60%** for the December 2025-February 2026 timeframe. Concurrently, the likelihood of ENSO-neutral conditions was projected to rise to 30-**40%** during the latter period [[^]](https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CDB/CDB_Archive_html/bulletin_012026/Forecast/forecast.shtml). The **probability** of El Niño developing remained low, generally below 10-**15%** across various models [[^]](https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf).

IRI's reports confirm persistent La Niña, with some later weakening. The IRI’s Quick Look reports supported these projections, with its consensus forecasts aligning with a continued high **probability** of La Niña through early 2026, showing a 65-**70%** chance for November-January and decreasing to approximately **55%** for January-March [[^]](https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/2025-November-quick-look/). However, reports also suggested a potential weakening of La Niña by early 2026, introducing some uncertainty about its full impact duration on the later part of the South American growing season [[^]](https://www.agrolatam.com/weather/la-nina-weakens-south-american-soybean-crop-outlook-2026/).

Persistent La Niña typically brings varied rainfall patterns to South America. A persistent La Niña generally leads to drier-than-average conditions in key agricultural regions of southern Brazil, Argentina, and Uruguay, potentially impacting soybean and corn yields. Conversely, it might contribute to wetter conditions in parts of northern Brazil [[^]](https://esd.copernicus.org/articles/14/255/2023/).

## How Will EPA's RVOs Impact Soybean Oil Demand and Crush Margins?

Total RVO 2026 | 22.33 billion gallons [[^]](https://www.epa.gov/renewable-fuel-standard/final-renewable-fuel-standards-2026-and-2027) |
Biomass-based Diesel (D4) RVO 2026 | 2.82 billion gallons [[^]](https://farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2026/04/rewriting-the-rfs-playbook-the-impact-of-final-rvos-on-projected-d4-biomass-based-diesel-rin-generation-for-2026-2027.html) |
Projected Additional Soybean Oil Demand by 2026 | 4-5 billion pounds [[^]](https://farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2026/04/rewriting-the-rfs-playbook-the-impact-of-final-rvos-on-projected-d4-biomass-based-diesel-rin-generation-for-2026-2027.html) |

**The U.S**

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s 2026 RVOs significantly increase demand for renewable diesel feedstocks. The EPA finalized the total Renewable Volume Obligations (RVOs) for 2026 at 22.33 billion gallons [[^]](https://www.epa.gov/renewable-fuel-standard/final-renewable-fuel-standards-2026-and-2027). A crucial element impacting soybean markets is the biomass-based diesel (D4) RVO, which is specifically set at 2.82 billion gallons for 2026 [[^]](https://farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2026/04/rewriting-the-rfs-playbook-the-impact-of-final-rvos-on-projected-d4-biomass-based-diesel-rin-generation-for-2026-2027.html). These obligations aim to bolster American energy security and support rural economies by driving increased renewable fuel production, including renewable diesel [[^]](https://www.epa.gov/newsreleases/epa-finalizes-historic-new-renewable-fuel-standards-strengthen-american-energy). The higher RVOs for biomass-based diesel directly translate to a substantial increase in demand for feedstocks like soybean oil to meet renewable diesel production targets [[^]](https://farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2026/04/rewriting-the-rfs-playbook-the-impact-of-final-rvos-on-projected-d4-biomass-based-diesel-rin-generation-for-2026-2027.html).

Increased soybean oil demand will enhance crush profitability and shift soybean usage. This heightened demand for soybean oil is projected to significantly influence the "crush spread," which represents the gross profit margin from crushing soybeans into oil and meal. Analysis indicates that meeting the 2026 D4 RVOs could necessitate an additional 4-5 billion pounds of soybean oil compared to 2022 levels for renewable diesel production alone [[^]](https://farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2026/04/rewriting-the-rfs-playbook-the-impact-of-final-rvos-on-projected-d4-biomass-based-diesel-rin-generation-for-2026-2027.html). This robust demand for soybean oil strengthens crush margins, making the crushing of soybeans more profitable [[^]](https://commodity-board.com/soybeans-steady-as-crush-complex-firms-and-china-premium-widens/). Consequently, a greater proportion of the U.S. soybean stock is expected to be diverted towards oil extraction for renewable diesel, rather than solely for traditional uses like animal feed (soybean meal) and food oil [[^]](https://farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2026/04/rewriting-the-rfs-playbook-the-impact-of-final-rvos-on-projected-d4-biomass-based-diesel-rin-generation-for-2026-2027.html). This diversion prioritizes feedstock supply for the growing renewable diesel sector, driven by the enhanced profitability of crushing operations due to strong soybean oil demand [[^]](https://investor.wedbush.com/wedbush/article/marketminute-2026-4-2-america-first-at-the-pump-soybean-oil-futures-skyrocket-as-epa-targets-imported-biofuel-feedstocks).

## What Are Key Projections from USDA and CONAB Reports?

US Corn Acreage | 90.0 million acres (USDA March 2026 Prospective Plantings Report) [[^]](https://esmis.nal.usda.gov/publication/prospective-plantings/2026-03-31) |
US Soybean Acreage | 87.5 million acres (USDA March 2026 Prospective Plantings Report) [[^]](https://esmis.nal.usda.gov/sites/default/release-files/795840/pspl0326.txt) |
Brazil Total Grain Harvest | 356.34 million tons (CONAB April 2026 Brazilian Harvest Progress Report) [[^]](https://valorinternational.globo.com/agribusiness/news/2026/04/15/strong-soybean-crop-performance-raises-grain-harvest-projection.ghtml) |

**The USDA's March report projected reduced corn acres and increased soybean plantings for 2026**

The USDA's March report projected reduced corn acres and increased soybean plantings for 2026. Released on March 31, 2026, the Prospective Plantings report provided crucial early insights into U.S. crop intentions [[^]](https://esmis.nal.usda.gov/publication/prospective-plantings/2026-03-31). It estimated 90.0 million acres for corn in the 2026 season, marking a **5%** decrease from the previous year. Conversely, soybean planted area for 2026 was projected at 87.5 million acres, representing a **3%** increase compared to the prior year [[^]](https://esmis.nal.usda.gov/sites/default/release-files/795840/pspl0326.txt). These figures offer a key indication for **market** outlooks.

CONAB's April survey maintained record Brazilian grain harvest projections for the 2025/26 season. The 7th survey for the Brazilian grain harvest was published on April 14, 2026 [[^]](https://noticias.uol.com.br/ultimas-noticias/agencia-estado/2026/04/14/conab-diz-que-7-previsao-para-safra-202526-mantem-recorde-de-35634-mit.htm), forecasting a total grain harvest of 356.34 million tons [[^]](https://valorinternational.globo.com/agribusiness/news/2026/04/15/strong-soybean-crop-performance-raises-grain-harvest-projection.ghtml). CONAB increased its estimate for the 2025/26 soybean crop to 154.6 million tons, an uptick from the previous month's projection. The estimate for the corn crop was also raised to 120.7 million tons [[^]](https://www.soybeansandcorn.com/articles/10453/). Strong soybean crop performance was noted as a contributing factor to the elevated overall grain harvest projection [[^]](https://valorinternational.globo.com/agribusiness/news/2026/04/15/strong-soybean-crop-performance-raises-grain-harvest-projection.ghtml).

## What Could Change the Odds

**Key takeaway.** Catalyst analysis unavailable.

## Key Dates & Catalysts

- **Expiration:** May 07, 2026
- **Closes:** April 30, 2026

## Decision-Flipping Events

- Catalyst analysis unavailable.

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## Historical Resolutions

No historical resolution data available for this series.

## Disclaimer

This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or trading advice.
Prediction markets involve risk of loss. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
We are not affiliated with Kalshi or any prediction market platform. Market data may be delayed or incomplete.

### Data Sources & Model Transparency

**Data Sources:** Octagon Deep Research aggregates information from multiple sources including news, filings, and market data.

**Freshness:** Analysis is generated periodically and may not reflect the latest developments. Verify critical information from primary sources.