# Live cattle price on Apr 17, 2026 at 5pm EDT?

Apr 17, 2026 at 5pm EDT

Updated: April 17, 2026

Category: Commodities

Tags: Agriculture

HTML: /markets/commodities/agriculture/live-cattle-price-on-apr-17-2026-at-5pm-edt/

## Short Answer

**Key takeaway.** Both the **model** and the **market** expect the live cattle price on April 17, 2026, at 5pm EDT to be above 242.99¢, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.

## Key Claims (January 2026)

**- - Higher supply of market-ready cattle expected for April 2026.** - Lower U.S. beef export trends are anticipated for Q1 2026.
- Drought conditions are projected to persist and intensify through mid-2026.
- Persistent drought conditions could increase cattle input costs.

### Why This Matters (GEO)

- AI agents extract claims, not arguments.
- Improves citation probability in summaries and answer cards.
- Enables fact stitching across multiple sources.

## Executive Verdict

**Key takeaway.** **Model**'s **98.3%** **probability** (9.3pp gap) for outcome influenced by downward price pressures implies a 1.1x payout.

### Who Wins and Why

| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| above 249.99¢ | 51.0% | 37.1% | Increased cattle supply and lower U.S. beef exports may put downward pressure on prices. |
| above 248.99¢ | 85.0% | 76.3% | Increased cattle supply and lower U.S. beef exports may put downward pressure on prices. |
| above 252.99¢ | 33.0% | 21.8% | Increased cattle supply and lower U.S. beef exports may put downward pressure on prices. |

## Model vs Market

| Outcome | Market Probability | Octagon Model Probability |
| --- | --- | --- |
| above 249.99¢ | 51.0% | 37.1% |
| above 248.99¢ | 85.0% | 76.3% |
| above 252.99¢ | 33.0% | 21.8% |
| above 253.99¢ | 20.0% | 21.8% |
| above 251.99¢ | 27.0% | 21.8% |
| above 247.99¢ | 58.0% | 76.3% |
| above 250.99¢ | 17.0% | 21.8% |
| above 261.99¢ | 2.0% | 1.1% |
| above 260.99¢ | 2.0% | 1.1% |
| above 245.99¢ | 90.0% | 83.7% |
| above 259.99¢ | 2.0% | 1.1% |
| above 254.99¢ | 7.0% | 21.8% |
| above 246.99¢ | 89.0% | 82.2% |
| above 258.99¢ | 1.0% | 1.1% |
| above 243.99¢ | 87.0% | 98.3% |
| above 256.99¢ | 20.0% | 12.4% |
| above 244.99¢ | 99.0% | 98.3% |
| above 257.99¢ | 11.0% | 6.5% |
| above 255.99¢ | 33.0% | 21.8% |
| above 242.99¢ | 89.0% | 98.3% |

- Expiration: April 17, 2026

## Market Behavior & Price Dynamics

This prediction market has exhibited an overall upward trend, moving from a starting probability of 56.0% to a current price of 89.0%. However, this trend has been characterized by extreme volatility in recent trading sessions. The market saw a significant 32.0 percentage point spike to 95.0% on April 15, followed by a sharp 28.0 point drop to 67.0% the next day, and then another 29.0 point spike on April 17 to its current level. With no specific news or external context provided, the direct causes for these dramatic daily price swings cannot be determined from the available information. These movements are likely attributable to the internal dynamics of a thinly traded market rather than a reaction to publicly known events in the agriculture sector.

The trading volume for this market is exceptionally low, with a total of only 8 contracts traded across 54 data points. This lack of volume is a critical factor in the analysis. The large price swings observed are occurring on minimal to zero trading activity, which suggests that the market is illiquid and the price can be easily moved by a very small number of participants. This low conviction level means the price may not reflect a broad market consensus. While recent price action has established a temporary resistance level near 95.0% and support around the 60.0%-63.0% range, these levels are not well-established due to the lack of volume.

Despite the recent volatility, the current price of 89.0% indicates a strong bullish sentiment among the few active traders. The market is pricing in a high probability of a "YES" resolution for the live cattle price on the settlement date. However, the preceding sharp drop from 95.0% shows that this sentiment is fragile and can reverse quickly. The combination of high volatility and extremely low trading volume suggests that the current price is not a stable or reliable indicator of the final outcome and is susceptible to further large fluctuations.

## Significant Price Movements

### Outcome: above 244.99¢

#### 📈 April 17, 2026: 43.0pp spike

Price increased from 56.0% to 99.0%

**What happened:** No supporting research available for this anomaly.

#### 📉 April 16, 2026: 34.0pp drop

Price decreased from 95.0% to 61.0%

**What happened:** No supporting research available for this anomaly.

### Outcome: above 245.99¢

#### 📈 April 15, 2026: 37.0pp spike

Price increased from 58.0% to 95.0%

**What happened:** No supporting research available for this anomaly.

## Contract Snapshot

A "Yes" resolution occurs if the 1-minute candlestick close price for live cattle on April 17, 2026, at 5:00 PM EDT is above 249.99 USd/Lbs; otherwise, it resolves to "No." The market closes at this time, with outcomes verified by Trading Economics and settlement values rounded to two decimal places. Special conditions include using the most recently available data if specific data is not published, and a specific interpretation of the 1-minute candlestick close price.

## Market Discussion

Limited public discussion available for this market.

## Market Data

| Contract | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | Last Price | Volume | Open Interest |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| above 242.99¢ | 76% | 99% | 89% | $8 | $7 |
| above 243.99¢ | 74% | 99% | 87% | $31 | $31 |
| above 244.99¢ | 68% | 100% | 99% | $26 | $26 |
| above 245.99¢ | 71% | 99% | 90% | $677 | $607 |
| above 246.99¢ | 76% | 89% | 89% | $199.2 | $184.84 |
| above 247.99¢ | 61% | 87% | 58% | $1,513.08 | $897.94 |
| above 248.99¢ | 75% | 85% | 85% | $2,936.36 | $1,978.96 |
| above 249.99¢ | 19% | 51% | 51% | $3,306.02 | $1,533.24 |
| above 250.99¢ | 10% | 48% | 17% | $1,509.73 | $817.73 |
| above 251.99¢ | 7% | 48% | 27% | $1,611 | $1,000.63 |
| above 252.99¢ | 7% | 33% | 33% | $2,734.07 | $1,771.65 |
| above 253.99¢ | 10% | 19% | 20% | $1,670.53 | $492.53 |
| above 254.99¢ | 5% | 7% | 7% | $333.92 | $297.92 |
| above 255.99¢ | 2% | 35% | 33% | $13 | $10 |
| above 256.99¢ | 3% | 24% | 20% | $27 | $6 |
| above 257.99¢ | 1% | 11% | 11% | $24 | $15 |
| above 258.99¢ | 0% | 13% | 1% | $38 | $11 |
| above 259.99¢ | 0% | 2% | 2% | $348.33 | $254.33 |
| above 260.99¢ | 0% | 2% | 2% | $1,029 | $1,000 |
| above 261.99¢ | 0% | 2% | 2% | $1,477.9 | $1,000 |

## What do USDA Cattle on Feed Reports Indicate for April Supply?

February 1, 2026 Inventory | 12.0 million head [[^]](https://esmis.nal.usda.gov/sites/default/release-files/795783/cofd0226.pdf) |
February 1, 2026 vs. 5-Year Avg | 1% above [[^]](https://esmis.nal.usda.gov/sites/default/release-files/795783/cofd0226.pdf) |
March 1, 2026 Inventory | 11.8 million head [[^]](https://esmis.nal.usda.gov/sites/default/release-files/795826/cofd0326.pdf) |

**Cattle on feed inventory consistently exceeded the five-year average**

Cattle on feed inventory consistently exceeded the five-year average. The USDA's monthly 'Cattle on Feed' reports for late Q1 2026 indicated that the inventory of cattle in feedlots with 1,000 or more head capacity was **1%** above their respective five-year averages for both February and March 2026. This sustained trend suggests a marginally increased supply of **market**-ready cattle will be available for April compared to typical averages.

February 1, 2026 inventory showed a slight increase. The 'Cattle on Feed' report released in February 2026 specifically indicated that the inventory of cattle in large feedlots totaled 12.0 million head as of February 1, 2026 [[^]](https://esmis.nal.usda.gov/sites/default/release-files/795783/cofd0226.pdf). This figure represented a **1%** increase compared to the five-year average for that specific date [[^]](https://esmis.nal.usda.gov/sites/default/release-files/795783/cofd0226.pdf).

March 1, 2026 inventory also surpassed its five-year average. The report released in March 2026 stated that on March 1, 2026, the total cattle and calves on feed for the slaughter **market** in feedlots with 1,000 or more head capacity was 11.8 million head [[^]](https://esmis.nal.usda.gov/sites/default/release-files/795826/cofd0326.pdf). This March 1 inventory was **1%** above the five-year average for that period, although it was **1%** below the inventory recorded on March 1, 2025 [[^]](https://esmis.nal.usda.gov/sites/default/release-files/795826/cofd0326.pdf).

## What Are Corn Price Forecasts for 2025 and 2026, and Potential Key Levels?

2025 Corn Price Forecast Evolution | From lower projections in August, to higher in November, then unchanged in December [[^]](https://www.cattlerange.com/articles/2025/11/november-wasde-report-cattle-prices-forecasted-lower-corn-prices-higher/) |
December 2026 Corn Futures | Testing a $4.70/bushel ceiling [[^]](https://www.farmprogress.com/commentary/can-corn-break-through-4-70-ceiling-) |
March 2026 Corn Price Influences | Global supply, demand, and stock levels [[^]](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/much-higher-corn-prices-march-155403459.html) |

**Corn futures for December 2025 and March 2026 saw fluctuating price outlooks**

Corn futures for December 2025 and March 2026 saw fluctuating price outlooks. Throughout 2025, the forward price of corn futures for December 2025 and March 2026 delivery experienced varying projections. Initially, the August 2025 WASDE report projected lower corn prices [[^]](https://www.cattlerange.com/articles/2025/08/august-wasde-report-cattle-prices-forecasted-higher-corn-prices-lower/). This trend subsequently reversed by November 2025, when the WASDE report indicated higher corn prices [[^]](https://www.cattlerange.com/articles/2025/11/november-wasde-report-cattle-prices-forecasted-lower-corn-prices-higher/). As the year concluded, the December 2025 WASDE report noted that corn prices were forecasted to remain unchanged [[^]](https://www.cattlerange.com/articles/2025/12/december-wasde-report-cattle-prices-forecasted-lower-corn-prices-unchanged/). This progression suggests an initial period of stability or downward pressure, followed by an upward revision in expectations, and then a stabilization influenced by various **market** factors, including global supply and demand dynamics [[^]](https://farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2026/03/projected-prices-and-volatility-factors-for-2026.html).

Sustained pricing above **$4.50**-**$5.00**/bushel is not broadly indicated. While specific forecasts for December 2025 and March 2026 do not broadly suggest a high **probability** of prices definitively sustaining above **$5.00**/bushel, related futures contracts offer some insight. December 2026 corn futures were reported testing a **$4.70**/bushel ceiling, which indicates a potential resistance point around the lower end of the specified **$4.50**-**$5.00** range [[^]](https://www.farmprogress.com/commentary/can-corn-break-through-4-70-ceiling-). The outlook for March 2026 corn prices remains subject to volatility factors such as global production, usage, and ending stock levels [[^]](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/much-higher-corn-prices-march-155403459.html). Sustained movement above this key threshold would largely depend on future developments in fundamental **market** drivers [[^]](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/much-higher-corn-prices-march-155403459.html).

## What are U.S. Beef Export Trends for Q1 2026?

Overall Beef Export Trend in Q1 2026 | U.S. beef exports are generally expected to face pressure and show a lower trend [[^]](https://beefweb.com/beef-exports-2026-china-trade-impact/), [[^]](https://www.porkbusiness.com/news/u-s-pork-exports-rise-2026-beef-trends-lower-february). |
Net Sales to China | A consistent pattern of running 10% or more below the prior year's figures is anticipated due to increased competition and domestic factors [[^]](https://beefweb.com/beef-exports-2026-china-trade-impact/), [[^]](https://americanbeefclub.com/en/biblioteka/statistika/american-beef-export-trade-statsjanuary-2026/), [[^]](https://www.fas.usda.gov/data/weekly-export-sales-03262026). |
Net Sales to Japan & South Korea | Expected to be more stable or show modest fluctuations, generally not consistently crossing the 10% threshold above or below prior year levels during Q1 2026 [[^]](https://americanbeefclub.com/en/biblioteka/statistika/american-beef-export-trade-statsjanuary-2026/), [[^]](https://www.fas.usda.gov/data/weekly-export-sales-03262026), [[^]](https://www.fas.usda.gov/data/weekly-export-sales-01152026). |

**U.S**

U.S. beef exports face pressure, notably declining in China. In Q1 2026, the USDA's weekly 'U.S. Export Sales' data for beef is projected to indicate a significant shift in demand, with overall U.S. beef exports exhibiting a lower trend [[^]](https://beefweb.com/beef-exports-2026-china-trade-impact/), [[^]](https://www.porkbusiness.com/news/u-s-pork-exports-rise-2026-beef-trends-lower-february). Specifically, net sales to China are anticipated to consistently run **10%** or more below the prior year's figures. This projected decrease is attributed to factors such as increased competition and evolving domestic **market** conditions within China [[^]](https://beefweb.com/beef-exports-2026-china-trade-impact/). Early trade statistics from January 2026 already show shifts in export performance [[^]](https://americanbeefclub.com/en/biblioteka/statistika/american-beef-export-trade-statsjanuary-2026/), with weekly reports through March 2026 expected to confirm this downward trajectory in net sales to China [[^]](https://www.fas.usda.gov/data/weekly-export-sales-03262026).

Japan and South Korea show stable demand, avoiding major shifts. For these markets, the trend is expected to be more consistent when compared to the anticipated decline in China. While Japan and South Korea remain important destinations for U.S. beef, net sales during Q1 2026 are not consistently projected to run **10%** or more above or below the prior year's figures. Data from January 2026 suggests sales to these countries could be relatively stable or experience only modest fluctuations, without indicating strong growth or sharp declines that would consistently cross the **10%** threshold [[^]](https://americanbeefclub.com/en/biblioteka/statistika/american-beef-export-trade-statsjanuary-2026/). Official USDA weekly export sales reports from early 2026, including those issued on January 15, 2026, and March 26, 2026, are expected to confirm this stable demand from Japan and South Korea compared to the prior year [[^]](https://www.fas.usda.gov/data/weekly-export-sales-03262026), [[^]](https://www.fas.usda.gov/data/weekly-export-sales-01152026). Therefore, the most significant shift in international demand, marked by a consistent pattern of sales running **10%** or more below the prior year's figures, is predominantly expected to be a decline in net sales of U.S. beef to China during Q1 2026.

## What are the Projected Drought Conditions for Southern Plains Cattle Regions?

La Niña Projection | Shift towards La Niña conditions projected by Aug-Sep 2025 [[^]](https://www.drought.gov/news/el-nino-southern-oscillation-and-drought-outlook-united-states-2025-09-08) |
Drought Persistence | Expected across TX, OK, KS through first half of 2026 [[^]](https://www.drought.gov/news/el-nino-southern-oscillation-and-drought-outlook-united-states-2025-09-08) |
Specific Drought Areas | Persistence in western KS, OK/TX Panhandles; development possible elsewhere [[^]](https://climate.ncsu.edu/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/CPC_discussion_2025-08-21.pdf) |

**Drought conditions are projected to persist and intensify through mid-2026**

Drought conditions are projected to persist and intensify through mid-2026. NOAA's long-range climate outlooks, issued in mid-2025, indicated persistent or developing drought in the key cattle regions of Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas, extending into early to mid-2026. This forecast was largely influenced by the anticipated shift to a La Niña pattern within the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle, with a high **probability** of La Niña developing or continuing through early 2026 [[^]](https://www.drought.gov/news/el-nino-southern-oscillation-and-drought-outlook-united-states-2025-09-08). Historically, La Niña events are associated with below-average precipitation and an increased risk of drought across the southern United States [[^]](https://www.drought.gov/news/el-nino-southern-oscillation-and-drought-outlook-united-states-2025-09-08).

Severe drought is anticipated to significantly impact regional cattle operations. Specific analyses from August and September 2025 projected that existing drought in areas such as western Kansas and the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles would persist or intensify [[^]](https://climate.ncsu.edu/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/CPC_discussion_2025-08-21.pdf). Furthermore, the seasonal drought outlook suggested the potential for drought development across broader areas of the Southern Plains into early to mid-2026 [[^]](https://climate.ncsu.edu/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/CPC_discussion_2025-08-21.pdf). Such prolonged and severe drought conditions could exert considerable stress on grazing lands, potentially leading to herd liquidation due to insufficient forage and elevated feed costs, directly affecting the calf crop slated for feedlots in early 2026 [[^]](https://www.drought.gov/news/el-nino-southern-oscillation-and-drought-outlook-united-states-2025-09-08).

## Is Managed Money's Live Cattle Futures Position Crowded?

Managed Money Net-Long Position | 58,157 contracts (April 10, 2026) [[^]](https://insights.ever.ag/2026/04/10/cftc-commitments-of-traders-report-summary-april-10-2026/) |
CFTC COT Report Date | April 10, 2026 [[^]](https://insights.ever.ag/2026/04/10/cftc-commitments-of-traders-report-summary-april-10-2026/) |
Crowded Trade Threshold | 100,000 contracts [[^]](https://insights.ever.ag/2026/04/10/cftc-commitments-of-traders-report-summary-april-10-2026/) |

**'Managed Money's Live Cattle net-long position is currently 58,157 contracts**

'Managed Money's Live Cattle net-long position is currently 58,157 contracts. According to the CFTC's Commitment of Traders (COT) report, updated on April 10, 2026, 'Managed Money' participants held a net-long position of 58,157 contracts in Live Cattle futures [[^]](https://insights.ever.ag/2026/04/10/cftc-commitments-of-traders-report-summary-april-10-2026/). This 'Managed Money' classification represents speculative funds, and its aggregate positions across all Live Cattle futures contracts are frequently observed for insights into **market** sentiment [[^]](https://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/index.htm).

Current speculative positioning in Live Cattle is not signaling an extreme condition. This reported net-long position of 58,157 contracts falls significantly below the 100,000-contract threshold typically indicating a historically large or 'crowded' trade [[^]](https://insights.ever.ag/2026/04/10/cftc-commitments-of-traders-report-summary-april-10-2026/). Consequently, the April 10, 2026 report suggests that speculative positioning in Live Cattle does not currently present an extreme or vulnerable situation that would predispose the **market** to a rapid sell-off purely due to an over-extended 'Managed Money' long presence [[^]](https://insights.ever.ag/2026/04/10/cftc-commitments-of-traders-report-summary-april-10-2026/). For broader historical analysis of COT data and charts, additional resources like Tradingster and Barchart are available [[^]](http://www.tradingster.com/cot/futures/disagg/057642).

## What Could Change the Odds

**Key takeaway.** Catalyst analysis unavailable.

## Key Dates & Catalysts

- **Expiration:** April 24, 2026
- **Closes:** April 17, 2026

## Decision-Flipping Events

- Catalyst analysis unavailable.

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## Historical Resolutions

**Historical Resolutions:** 20 markets in this series

**Outcomes:** 16 resolved YES, 4 resolved NO

**Recent resolutions:**

- KXLCATTLEW-26APR1017-T254.99: NO (Apr 10, 2026)
- KXLCATTLEW-26APR1017-T253.99: NO (Apr 10, 2026)
- KXLCATTLEW-26APR1017-T252.99: NO (Apr 10, 2026)
- KXLCATTLEW-26APR1017-T251.99: NO (Apr 10, 2026)
- KXLCATTLEW-26APR1017-T250.99: YES (Apr 10, 2026)

## Disclaimer

This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or trading advice.
Prediction markets involve risk of loss. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
We are not affiliated with Kalshi or any prediction market platform. Market data may be delayed or incomplete.

### Data Sources & Model Transparency

**Data Sources:** Octagon Deep Research aggregates information from multiple sources including news, filings, and market data.

**Freshness:** Analysis is generated periodically and may not reflect the latest developments. Verify critical information from primary sources.