# Coffee price on Apr 30, 2026 at 5pm EDT?

Apr 30, 2026 at 5pm EDT

Updated: April 29, 2026

Category: Commodities

Tags: Agriculture

HTML: /markets/commodities/agriculture/coffee-price-on-apr-30-2026-at-5pm-edt/

## Short Answer

**Key takeaway.** Both the **model** and the **market** expect the coffee price to be above 249.99¢ on April 30, 2026, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.

## Key Claims (January 2026)

**- - Brazilian forecasters do not anticipate frost in Arabica coffee regions.** - ICE-certified Arabica coffee inventories remain abundant and are rebuilding.
- Managed money holds an extreme net-short position in coffee futures.
- Significant labor actions cause export delays at Brazil's Santos Port.

### Why This Matters (GEO)

- AI agents extract claims, not arguments.
- Improves citation probability in summaries and answer cards.
- Enables fact stitching across multiple sources.

## Executive Verdict

**Key takeaway.** **Model**'s **99.1%** vs 99c **market** (+0.1pp gap) shows strong consensus despite conflicting fundamental factors.

### Who Wins and Why

| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| above 294.99¢ | 31.0% | 33.6% | Model higher by 2.6pp |
| above 289.99¢ | 46.0% | 49.1% | Model higher by 3.1pp |
| above 279.99¢ | 91.0% | 92.1% | Model higher by 1.1pp |

## Model vs Market

| Outcome | Market Probability | Octagon Model Probability |
| --- | --- | --- |
| above 294.99¢ | 31.0% | 33.6% |
| above 289.99¢ | 46.0% | 49.1% |
| above 279.99¢ | 91.0% | 92.1% |
| above 299.99¢ | 13.0% | 27.2% |
| above 284.99¢ | 75.0% | 77.5% |
| above 304.99¢ | 10.0% | 27.2% |
| above 264.99¢ | 83.0% | 93.0% |
| above 309.99¢ | 7.0% | 27.2% |
| above 274.99¢ | 89.0% | 92.1% |
| above 254.99¢ | 98.0% | 99.1% |
| above 269.99¢ | 92.0% | 93.0% |
| above 259.99¢ | 99.0% | 99.1% |
| above 249.99¢ | 99.0% | 99.1% |
| above 314.99 | 18.0% | 27.2% |
| above 339.99¢ | 1.0% | 1.1% |
| above 344.99¢ | 1.0% | 1.1% |
| above 319.99¢ | 8.0% | 27.2% |
| above 334.99¢ | 25.0% | 27.2% |
| above 324.99 | 21.0% | 27.2% |
| above 329.99 | 14.0% | 27.2% |

- Expiration: April 30, 2026

## Market Behavior & Price Dynamics

This prediction market shows a long-term upward trend, starting at a 92.0% probability and ending at 99.0%. Despite the positive overall trajectory, the market experienced a period of extreme volatility in late April. Specifically, the price dropped significantly by 32 percentage points on April 19, recovered with a 25 point spike on April 24, and then saw another 13 point drop on April 25. The provided context does not offer any specific news or fundamental developments that would account for these sharp price swings, indicating they may have been driven by factors external to the available information or by internal market mechanics among traders.

Throughout this volatile period, a clear support level emerged at the 63.0% price mark, which was the low point for the market on two separate occasions before prices rebounded. The current price of 99.0% represents a strong resistance level at the top of the range. The total traded volume of 175 contracts suggests a market with a moderate level of activity. The final price of 99.0% indicates that, despite the mid-period uncertainty and price fluctuations, the market's final sentiment is one of extremely high conviction that the coffee price will resolve as a YES.

## Significant Price Movements

### Outcome: above 259.99¢

#### 📈 April 28, 2026: 17.0pp spike

Price increased from 82.0% to 99.0%

**What happened:** No supporting research available for this anomaly.

### Outcome: above 254.99¢

#### 📈 April 25, 2026: 19.0pp spike

Price increased from 80.0% to 99.0%

**What happened:** No supporting research available for this anomaly.

### Outcome: above 249.99¢

#### 📈 April 24, 2026: 25.0pp spike

Price increased from 63.0% to 88.0%

**What happened:** No supporting research available for this anomaly.

#### 📉 April 19, 2026: 32.0pp drop

Price decreased from 95.0% to 63.0%

**What happened:** No supporting research available for this anomaly.

### Outcome: above 264.99¢

#### 📉 April 23, 2026: 15.0pp drop

Price decreased from 98.0% to 83.0%

**What happened:** No supporting research available for this anomaly.

## Contract Snapshot

The market resolves to YES if the 1-minute coffee candlestick close price on April 30, 2026, at 5 PM EDT is above 289.99 USd/Lbs; otherwise, it resolves to NO. The market closes on April 30, 2026, at 5:00 PM EDT, with a projected payout at 6:00 PM EDT. Settlement values are rounded to two decimal places and verified by Trading Economics - Coffee.

## Market Discussion

Limited public discussion available for this market.

## Market Data

| Contract | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | Last Price | Volume | Open Interest |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| above 249.99¢ | 98% | 99% | 99% | $190.44 | $170.44 |
| above 254.99¢ | 97% | 98% | 98% | $443.84 | $392.61 |
| above 259.99¢ | 97% | 98% | 99% | $273 | $232 |
| above 264.99¢ | 98% | 99% | 83% | $1,794 | $650 |
| above 269.99¢ | 92% | 98% | 92% | $336.6 | $253.6 |
| above 274.99¢ | 80% | 94% | 89% | $1,185.95 | $506 |
| above 279.99¢ | 87% | 88% | 91% | $5,010.16 | $2,413.26 |
| above 284.99¢ | 75% | 77% | 75% | $3,850.61 | $1,419.11 |
| above 289.99¢ | 43% | 44% | 46% | $5,099.75 | $1,789.6 |
| above 294.99¢ | 27% | 32% | 31% | $6,770.05 | $1,703.55 |
| above 299.99¢ | 15% | 17% | 13% | $4,581.05 | $1,787.28 |
| above 304.99¢ | 10% | 11% | 10% | $3,081.7 | $1,167.39 |
| above 309.99¢ | 8% | 9% | 7% | $1,388.73 | $833.73 |
| above 314.99 | 0% | 14% | 18% | $95 | $95 |
| above 319.99¢ | 0% | 16% | 8% | $8 | $7 |
| above 324.99 | 0% | 15% | 21% | $2 | $2 |
| above 329.99 | 0% | 17% | 14% | $2 | $2 |
| above 334.99¢ | 0% | 21% | 25% | $5.42 | $4.42 |
| above 339.99¢ | 0% | 1% | 1% | $25 | $25 |
| above 344.99¢ | 0% | 1% | 1% | $15 | $15 |

## Will Brazil's Arabica Coffee Regions Experience Frost Before April 30?

Frost Warning Threshold | 3°C [[^]](https://portal.inmet.gov.br/noticias/inmet-divulga-previs%C3%A3o-para-semana-de-27-de-abril-a-04-de-maio-de-2026) |
INMET Min Temp Forecast (April 20-27, 2026) | 8°C to 16°C (for Southeast region) [[^]](https://portal.inmet.gov.br/noticias/inmet-divulga-previs%C3%A3o-para-semana-de-20-a-27-de-abril-de-2026) |
Climatempo Min Temp Forecast (April 27, Ingaí) | Approximately 7°C [[^]](http://www.climatempo.com.br/previsao-do-tempo/15-dias/cidade/3782/ingai-mg) |

**Brazilian forecasters currently do not anticipate frost in Arabica-growing regions**

Brazilian forecasters currently do not anticipate frost in Arabica-growing regions. Temperatures in the key Arabica-growing regions of Southern Minas Gerais and Mogiana are not expected to drop below the critical 3°C threshold for frost warnings before April 30, 2026. Brazil's National Institute of Meteorology (INMET) forecasts indicate minimum temperatures will remain above this level despite an incoming polar air mass. For the period of April 20-27, 2026, INMET predicted minimum temperatures for Brazil's Southeast region, which includes these areas, to range between 8°C and 16°C [[^]](https://portal.inmet.gov.br/noticias/inmet-divulga-previs%C3%A3o-para-semana-de-20-a-27-de-abril-de-2026). Looking further ahead, INMET's forecast for the week of April 27 to May 4, 2026, also indicates minimum temperatures in the Southeast region will hover between 8°C and 16°C [[^]](https://portal.inmet.gov.br/noticias/inmet-divulga-previs%C3%A3o-para-semana-de-27-de-abril-a-04-de-maio-de-2026).

Private forecaster Climatempo corroborates the absence of frost risk. For Ingaí, a municipality in Southern Minas Gerais, Climatempo's 15-day forecast shows minimum temperatures reaching approximately 7°C on April 27th, generally remaining above this level in subsequent days, with no predictions below 3°C [[^]](http://www.climatempo.com.br/previsao-do-tempo/15-dias/cidade/3782/ingai-mg). While the first polar air mass of the year is expected to lower temperatures, it is not anticipated to cause frost. On April 26, 2026, reports indicated some southern cities of Minas Gerais could see temperatures drop to 5°C on April 27, and certain areas in the south and southwest of Minas Gerais could record minimums of 6°C on April 28 [[^]](https://ahoradosul.com.br/conteudos/2026/04/26/primeira-massa-de-ar-polar-do-ano-deve-baixar-as-temperaturas-nos-proximos-dias/). Crucially, despite these expected temperature drops, there is "no frost forecast" accompanying them, signifying that temperatures are not predicted to reach the critical 3°C or lower threshold [[^]](https://ahoradosul.com.br/conteudos/2026/04/26/primeira-massa-de-ar-polar-do-ano-deve-baixar-as-temperaturas-nos-proximos-dias/).

## What is Managed Money's Extreme Short Coffee C Futures Position?

Managed Money Net Short Position | -18,500 contracts (Coffee C futures) [[^]](http://www.tradingster.com/cot/futures/disagg/083731) |
COT Report Date | April 14, 2026 [[^]](http://www.tradingster.com/cot/futures/disagg/083731) |
Position Extremity | Bottom 5% of past 24 months [[^]](http://www.tradingster.com/cot/futures/disagg/083731) |

**Managed Money holds a significant net short position in Coffee C futures**

Managed Money holds a significant net short position in Coffee C futures. As of the Commitment of Traders (COT) report released on April 14, 2026, the 'Managed Money' category reported a net short position of approximately -18,500 contracts in Coffee C futures (KC) [[^]](http://www.tradingster.com/cot/futures/disagg/083731). This net figure represents the difference between their total long and total short contracts for the reporting period, a finding corroborated by various COT report analysis providers [[^]](http://www.tradingster.com/cot/futures/disagg/083731).

This extreme short positioning suggests a crowded and vulnerable trade. The current net short position held by 'Managed Money' in Coffee C futures is considered an extreme level, falling within the bottom **5%** of their historical net positions observed over the past 24 months [[^]](http://www.tradingster.com/cot/futures/disagg/083731). Such a concentrated short stance indicates that a substantial portion of speculative capital is positioned for further price declines, which makes the contract particularly susceptible to a sharp reversal. This vulnerability increases as the contract nears expiry, as any shift in **market** sentiment or positive news could rapidly trigger a significant short-covering rally [[^]](https://www.cotdata.uk/blog/2026-02-17-weekly-cot-analysis).

## What Is the Current Trend of ICE-Certified Arabica Coffee Inventories?

Current Inventory Status | Abundant [[^]](https://www.barchart.com/story/news/826042/arabica-coffee-closes-lower-on-a-bumper-brazil-crop-and-abundant-ice-inventories) |
Inventory Trend | Rebuilding phase [[^]](https://cropgpt.ai/coffee-stabilises-at-lows-as-ice-inventories-rebuild-and-vietnam-exports-surge) |
Drawdown Indication | Not consistent and accelerating drawdown [[^]](https://cropgpt.ai/coffee-stabilises-at-lows-as-ice-inventories-rebuild-and-vietnam-exports-surge) |

**ICE-certified Arabica coffee inventories are currently abundant and rebuilding**

ICE-certified Arabica coffee inventories are currently abundant and rebuilding. These inventories are presently characterized as "abundant" and are in a "rebuilding" phase [[^]](https://www.barchart.com/story/news/826042/arabica-coffee-closes-lower-on-a-bumper-brazil-crop-and-abundant-ice-inventories). This prevailing trend indicates no consistent or accelerating drawdown of these inventories over the past 15 trading days. Instead, it suggests that the available supply is either meeting or exceeding the physical demand in the **market** [[^]](https://cropgpt.ai/coffee-stabilises-at-lows-as-ice-inventories-rebuild-and-vietnam-exports-surge).

Supply adequately meets roaster demand, supported by other **market** factors. This **market** dynamic, alongside substantial inventory levels, implies that the deliverable supply is adequately meeting, or potentially outstripping, the physical demand from roasters [[^]](https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/coffee-prices-fall-brazil-weather-and-ice-inventories-0). This situation does not reflect strong demand that is outstripping near-term supply. Other contributing factors, such as a "bumper Brazil crop" and surging Vietnamese exports, have further supported these substantial inventory levels and contributed to the stabilization of coffee prices at lower levels [[^]](https://www.barchart.com/story/news/826042/arabica-coffee-closes-lower-on-a-bumper-brazil-crop-and-abundant-ice-inventories).

## How Do Exchange Rate Trends Affect Coffee Futures Prices?

USD/BRL Historical Data Sources | SendMoneyCompare, Wise, Investing.com, Yahoo Finance [[^]](https://sendmoneycompare.com/exchange-rates/history/usd-to-brl) |
Coffee C Futures Historical Data Sources | Investing.com, Barchart.com [[^]](https://ca.investing.com/commodities/us-coffee-c-historical-data) |
Exchange Rate vs. Coffee Futures Charting | MacroMicro [[^]](https://en.macromicro.me/collections/2960/coffee/23808/fx-usd-brl-vs-coffee-futures-price) |

**Specific data on USD/BRL and coffee futures is currently unavailable**

Specific data on USD/BRL and coffee futures is currently unavailable. The research was unable to provide specific numerical data points or trends for the USD/BRL exchange rate and Coffee C Futures over the last 10 trading sessions. This limitation is due to empty web research results and the inability to browse external websites or retrieve live data from the indicated source links [[^]](https://sendmoneycompare.com/exchange-rates/history/usd-to-brl).

Accessing historical data is crucial for trend analysis. To accurately determine the USD/BRL exchange rate trend, one would typically consult historical data from platforms such as SendMoneyCompare, Wise, Investing.com, or Yahoo Finance to identify strengthening or weakening of the Brazilian Real [[^]](https://sendmoneycompare.com/exchange-rates/history/usd-to-brl). Concurrently, historical data for US Coffee C Futures would be retrieved from sites like Investing.com or Barchart.com to analyze their price action [[^]](https://ca.investing.com/commodities/us-coffee-c-historical-data).

Divergence between the Real and coffee futures indicates specific **market** conditions. Once specific data points become available, a direct comparison of trends would reveal whether the USD/BRL exchange rate diverges from coffee futures prices. A rapidly strengthening Brazilian Real (USD/BRL falling) serves as a bullish catalyst for coffee prices, reducing the incentive for Brazilian producers to sell. Divergence would be observed if the Real strengthened but coffee prices declined, or if the Real weakened while coffee prices unexpectedly increased. The MacroMicro resource, which specifically charts USD/BRL against coffee futures, would be an excellent tool for visualizing and confirming such divergences, if its content were accessible [[^]](https://en.macromicro.me/collections/2960/coffee/23808/fx-usd-brl-vs-coffee-futures-price).

## How Do Port of Santos Labor Actions Affect Coffee Exports?

Coffee Ships Delayed | 95 ships (April) [[^]](https://revistacultivar.com/news/In-April%2C-95-ships-exporting-coffee-were-delayed-at-the-port-of-Santos-SP) |
Stevedore Operations Halted | 12 hours [[^]](https://www.cbnsantos.com.br/noticias/noticias/estivadores-param-porto-de-santos-por-12-horas-em-protesto-contra-o-fim-da-exclusividade.html) |
Port of Santos Q1 Cargo Volume | 42.8 million tonnes [[^]](https://dredgewire.com/port-of-santos-reaches-42-8-million-tonnes-in-first-quarter-overtaking-record-1999-full-year-total/) |

**Labor actions are causing significant delays for coffee exports at Santos**

Labor actions are causing significant delays for coffee exports at Santos. The Port of Santos in Brazil, the world's largest coffee-exporting port, is experiencing emergent reports of labor actions and notable loading delays for coffee exports. Dockworkers initiated a partial strike to defend their exclusive hiring rights along the São Paulo coast [[^]](https://datamarnews.com/noticias/dockworkers-at-the-port-of-santos-stage-a-partial-strike-to-defend-exclusive-hiring-rights-along-the-sao-paulo-coast/). As part of these actions, stevedores halted port operations for 12 hours, protesting the termination of hiring exclusivity [[^]](https://www.cbnsantos.com.br/noticias/noticias/estivadores-param-porto-de-santos-por-12-horas-em-protesto-contra-o-fim-da-exclusividade.html). These disruptions are contributing to immediate physical supply chain issues.

Ninety-five coffee ships faced delays in April at the port. Specifically, coffee shipments are significantly impacted, with 95 ships carrying coffee experiencing delays at the Port of Santos in April [[^]](https://revistacultivar.com/news/In-April%2C-95-ships-exporting-coffee-were-delayed-at-the-port-of-Santos-SP). These noted delays are a direct consequence of the ongoing labor actions and port disruptions.

Record overall throughput does not mitigate specific coffee export issues. Despite these specific challenges, the Port of Santos achieved a record overall performance in the first quarter, handling an impressive 42.8 million tonnes of cargo. This volume surpassed a full-year total from 1999 [[^]](https://dredgewire.com/port-of-santos-reaches-42-8-million-tonnes-in-first-quarter-overtaking-record-1999-full-year-total/). However, this high overall throughput does not diminish the distinct impact of labor actions and reported delays on coffee exports, especially leading up to the April 30 resolution.

## What Could Change the Odds

**Key takeaway.** Catalyst analysis unavailable.

## Key Dates & Catalysts

- **Expiration:** May 07, 2026
- **Closes:** April 30, 2026

## Decision-Flipping Events

- Catalyst analysis unavailable.

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## Historical Resolutions

No historical resolution data available for this series.

## Disclaimer

This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or trading advice.
Prediction markets involve risk of loss. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
We are not affiliated with Kalshi or any prediction market platform. Market data may be delayed or incomplete.

### Data Sources & Model Transparency

**Data Sources:** Octagon Deep Research aggregates information from multiple sources including news, filings, and market data.

**Freshness:** Analysis is generated periodically and may not reflect the latest developments. Verify critical information from primary sources.