# Cocoa price on Apr 30, 2026 at 5pm EDT?

Apr 30, 2026 at 5pm EDT

Updated: April 29, 2026

Category: Commodities

Tags: Agriculture

HTML: /markets/commodities/agriculture/cocoa-price-on-apr-30-2026-at-5pm-edt/

## Short Answer

**Key takeaway.** Both the **model** and the **market** expect cocoa price to be above **$2167.99** on April 30, 2026, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.

## Key Claims (January 2026)

**- - Global cocoa demand is softening due to sustained high prices.** - Ecuador's increased output will significantly offset West African deficits.
- EU deforestation regulations will not disrupt cocoa supply by Q1 2026.
- Ivory Coast and Ghana productive cocoa acreage is projected to decrease.
- Ivory Coast cocoa arrivals lagged expectations for the 2025/2026 main crop.

### Why This Matters (GEO)

- AI agents extract claims, not arguments.
- Improves citation probability in summaries and answer cards.
- Enables fact stitching across multiple sources.

## Executive Verdict

**Key takeaway.** **Market** at 99c is slightly more confident than the **98.6%** **model**, predicting downward pressure on cocoa prices.

### Who Wins and Why

| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| above $3267.99 | 74.0% | 66.9% | Softening global demand and increased Ecuadorian output are expected to put downward pressure on prices. |
| above $3367.99 | 49.0% | 40.2% | Softening global demand and increased Ecuadorian output are expected to put downward pressure on prices. |
| above $3667.99 | 15.0% | 10.8% | Softening global demand and increased Ecuadorian output are expected to put downward pressure on prices. |

## Model vs Market

| Outcome | Market Probability | Octagon Model Probability |
| --- | --- | --- |
| above $3267.99 | 74.0% | 66.9% |
| above $3367.99 | 49.0% | 40.2% |
| above $3667.99 | 15.0% | 10.8% |
| above $3167.99 | 90.0% | 86.5% |
| above $3067.99 | 91.0% | 87.8% |
| above $3467.99 | 29.0% | 22.1% |
| above $2867.99 | 88.0% | 87.8% |
| above $2967.99 | 89.0% | 87.8% |
| above $3567.99 | 7.0% | 10.8% |
| above $2767.99 | 84.0% | 87.8% |
| above $2567.99 | 99.0% | 98.6% |
| above $2167.99 | 99.0% | 98.6% |
| above $2267.99 | 99.0% | 98.6% |
| above $2467.99 | 99.0% | 98.6% |
| above $2367.99 | 98.0% | 98.6% |
| above $3767.99 | 2.0% | 1.4% |
| above $2667.99 | 97.0% | 95.9% |
| above $4167.99 | 1.0% | 0.7% |
| above $4267.99 | 1.0% | 0.7% |
| above $4367.99 | 1.0% | 0.7% |
| above $4467.99 | 1.0% | 0.7% |
| above $3867.99 | 0.0% | 0.7% |
| above $3967.99 | 0.0% | 0.7% |
| above $4067.99 | 0.0% | 0.7% |

- Expiration: April 30, 2026

## Market Behavior & Price Dynamics

This prediction market has exhibited extreme volatility within a short timeframe, ultimately trending upward to a near-certain outcome. The market began with a high probability of 89.0% before experiencing a significant drop of 35 percentage points to 55.0% on April 18. This initiated a period of sharp price swings, including another drop to a low of 42.0% on April 26. However, this downturn was immediately followed by a decisive 46-point spike on April 27, which propelled the price from 52.0% to 98.0%. The price has since stabilized at 99.0%, indicating a near-complete consensus. The price action suggests a period of intense uncertainty and conflicting sentiment that was abruptly resolved.

The causes for these dramatic price movements are not apparent from the provided data, as no specific news or external context was available. The market's volume of 229 contracts traded over its lifespan is relatively low, which can contribute to such high volatility, as even small trades can significantly impact the price. Key price levels were established and broken throughout this period. An initial resistance level appeared around the 89-90% mark, which failed on April 18. The market then found a support floor in the 42-44% range before the final surge. The 50-55% level acted as a temporary pivot point during the period of peak uncertainty.

Overall, the chart reflects a market that underwent a crisis of confidence before reaching a powerful resolution. Initial sentiment was strongly positive, but this conviction was thoroughly challenged, with the market probability dipping into "NO" territory. The final, sharp rally to 99.0% indicates that whatever uncertainty plagued the market has been overwhelmingly settled in favor of a "YES" outcome. The current price suggests that traders now see the event as almost a certainty, a stark reversal from the sentiment just days prior.

## Significant Price Movements

### Outcome: above $2167.99

#### 📈 April 27, 2026: 46.0pp spike

Price increased from 52.0% to 98.0%

**What happened:** No supporting research available for this anomaly.

### Outcome: above $2267.99

#### 📈 April 26, 2026: 47.0pp spike

Price increased from 51.0% to 98.0%

**What happened:** No supporting research available for this anomaly.

#### 📉 April 24, 2026: 9.0pp drop

Price decreased from 53.0% to 44.0%

**What happened:** No supporting research available for this anomaly.

### Outcome: above $2567.99

#### 📈 April 25, 2026: 9.0pp spike

Price increased from 44.0% to 53.0%

**What happened:** No supporting research available for this anomaly.

### Outcome: above $2467.99

#### 📉 April 23, 2026: 12.0pp drop

Price decreased from 56.0% to 44.0%

**What happened:** No supporting research available for this anomaly.

## Contract Snapshot

This market resolves to "Yes" if the 1-minute candlestick close price for cocoa on April 30, 2026, at 5 PM EDT is above 3367.99 USD/T; otherwise, it resolves to "No." The outcome is verified from Trading Economics - Cocoa, with the settlement value rounded to the nearest whole number, and the market closes on April 30, 2026, at 5:00 PM EDT.

## Market Discussion

Limited public discussion available for this market.

## Market Data

| Contract | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | Last Price | Volume | Open Interest |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| above $2167.99 | 97% | 100% | 99% | $229 | $219 |
| above $2267.99 | 98% | 100% | 99% | $225.25 | $225.25 |
| above $2367.99 | 98% | 99% | 98% | $126.25 | $125.25 |
| above $2467.99 | 97% | 98% | 99% | $163.37 | $152.37 |
| above $2567.99 | 98% | 99% | 99% | $468.66 | $435.16 |
| above $2667.99 | 70% | 98% | 97% | $32.57 | $31.57 |
| above $2767.99 | 77% | 98% | 84% | $794 | $773 |
| above $2867.99 | 97% | 98% | 88% | $1,018 | $1,014 |
| above $2967.99 | 96% | 98% | 89% | $1,000 | $973 |
| above $3067.99 | 87% | 88% | 91% | $1,568.25 | $1,507.25 |
| above $3167.99 | 87% | 88% | 90% | $1,737.61 | $1,390.19 |
| above $3267.99 | 70% | 71% | 74% | $5,992.72 | $2,968.62 |
| above $3367.99 | 48% | 49% | 49% | $4,634.73 | $3,767.18 |
| above $3467.99 | 30% | 32% | 29% | $1,135.03 | $578.3 |
| above $3567.99 | 7% | 9% | 7% | $961.28 | $652.44 |
| above $3667.99 | 6% | 14% | 15% | $1,993.73 | $793.74 |
| above $3767.99 | 0% | 9% | 2% | $116 | $115 |
| above $3867.99 | 1% | 12% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| above $3967.99 | 1% | 15% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| above $4067.99 | 1% | 15% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| above $4167.99 | 0% | 1% | 1% | $10 | $10 |
| above $4267.99 | 0% | 1% | 1% | $10 | $10 |
| above $4367.99 | 0% | 1% | 1% | $10 | $10 |
| above $4467.99 | 0% | 1% | 1% | $10 | $10 |

## What is the Projected Cocoa Acreage Change in Ivory Coast and Ghana?

Combined Projected Acreage Change (2025/2026) | Decrease of 150,000 hectares [[^]](https://cropgpt.ai/ghana-cocoa-monthly-report-march-2026) |
Ivory Coast Projected Acreage Change | Net decrease of 100,000 hectares [[^]](https://apps.fas.usda.gov/newgainapi/api/Report/DownloadReportByFileName?fileName=Cote+d%27Ivoire+-+Cocoa+Sector+Overview+-+2025_Accra_Cote+d%27Ivoire_IV2025-0001.pdf) |
Ghana Projected Acreage Change | Net decrease of 50,000 hectares [[^]](https://cropgpt.ai/ghana-cocoa-monthly-report-march-2026) |

**For the 2025/2026 crop year, productive cocoa acreage in Ivory Coast and Ghana is projected to decrease**

For the 2025/2026 crop year, productive cocoa acreage in Ivory Coast and Ghana is projected to decrease. The combined net decrease is estimated at approximately 150,000 hectares, primarily driven by extensive tree removal programs targeting Cocoa Swollen Shoot Virus (CSSV) infected farms and the natural attrition of aging trees, despite ongoing replanting initiatives [[^]](https://cropgpt.ai/ghana-cocoa-monthly-report-march-2026). The Cacao Swollen Shoot Virus is a significant threat, causing considerable yield loss and eventual tree death, necessitating the removal of affected plants to prevent further spread [[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cacao_swollen_shoot_virus).

Ivory Coast expects a net reduction in productive cocoa acreage. As the world's largest cocoa producer, Ivory Coast is forecast to see a net reduction of approximately 100,000 hectares. This includes an estimated loss of 150,000 hectares due to CSSV eradication efforts, which encourage farmers to cut down infected trees [[^]](https://apps.fas.usda.gov/newgainapi/api/Report/DownloadReportByFileName?fileName=Cote+d%27Ivoire+-+Cocoa+Sector+Overview+-+2025_Accra_Cote+d%27Ivoire_IV2025-0001.pdf). An additional 50,000 hectares are expected to become unproductive due to the natural senescence of older cocoa trees [[^]](https://apps.fas.usda.gov/newgainapi/api/Report/DownloadReportByFileName?fileName=Cote+d%27Ivoire+-+Cocoa+Sector+Overview+-+2025_Accra_Cote+d%27Ivoire_IV2025-0001.pdf). These losses are partially mitigated by the anticipated integration of about 100,000 hectares of new, higher-yielding, and often disease-resistant plantings becoming productive during the 2025/2026 season [[^]](https://apps.fas.usda.gov/newgainapi/api/Report/DownloadReportByFileName?fileName=Cote+d%27Ivoire+-+Cocoa+Sector+Overview+-+2025_Accra_Cote+d%27Ivoire_IV2025-0001.pdf).

Ghana also projects a significant net decrease in productive cocoa land. Ghana is projected to face a net decrease of approximately 50,000 hectares. This figure accounts for the removal of an estimated 80,000 hectares of existing productive land due to CSSV eradication programs, which involve cutting down infected trees and subsequent replanting efforts [[^]](https://cropgpt.ai/ghana-cocoa-monthly-report-march-2026). Furthermore, approximately 30,000 hectares are expected to be removed or decline significantly in productivity due to aging trees and unsustainable farming practices [[^]](https://cropgpt.ai/ghana-cocoa-monthly-report-march-2026). Counteracting these losses, replanting schemes, including government-subsidized seedling distribution, are projected to contribute roughly 60,000 hectares of new productive land by the 2025/2026 crop year [[^]](https://cropgpt.ai/ghana-cocoa-monthly-report-march-2026).

## Will EU Deforestation Regulation Disrupt Cocoa Supply by Q1 2026?

EUDR Large Operator Deadline | December 30, 2026 [[^]](https://www.integritynext.com/resources/blog/article/eudr-delay-2025-2026-what-it-means-for-supply-chains-and-procurement) |
Barry Callebaut Traceability Target | 100% by 2025 (80%+ already achieved) [[^]](https://www.barry-callebaut.com/en/about-us/media/news-stories/navigating-eudr-position-recent-eudr-developments) |
Ghana Cocoa Farm Traceability | 20-30% currently traceable [[^]](https://tracextech.com/cocoa-traceability-challenges-ghana/) |

**The EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) will not cause widespread cocoa supply chain disruption by Q1 2026**

The EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) will not cause widespread cocoa supply chain disruption by Q1 2026. This is primarily because the official compliance deadline for large operators is December 30, 2026, and for small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) it is June 30, 2026 [[^]](https://www.integritynext.com/resources/blog/article/eudr-delay-2025-2026-what-it-means-for-supply-chains-and-procurement). Although the regulation came into force in June 2023, the later deadlines mean that companies will largely be in a preparatory phase during Q1 2026, rather than facing immediate penalties for non-compliance.

Major exporters are proactively implementing comprehensive traceability and sustainability initiatives. For example, Barry Callebaut aims for **100%** traceability to farm level for all directly sourced cocoa by 2025, having already achieved this for over **80%** of its direct purchases [[^]](https://www.barry-callebaut.com/en/about-us/media/news-stories/navigating-eudr-position-recent-eudr-developments). The company utilizes polygonal mapping technology within its Cocoa Horizons program to ensure a transparent and deforestation-free supply chain, aligning with the regulation's requirements [[^]](https://www.barry-callebaut.com/en/about-us/media/news-stories/navigating-eudr-position-recent-eudr-developments).

Challenges remain for smallholders, influencing **market** dynamics and operational costs. Significant issues persist within the broader cocoa supply chain, especially for smallholder farmers in key producing nations like Ghana. These include a lack of precise farm-level location data, fragmented supply chains, and limited access to technology, with only an estimated 20-**30%** of cocoa farms in Ghana currently traceable to a precise geolocation [[^]](https://tracextech.com/cocoa-traceability-challenges-ghana/). While direct enforcement disruption is delayed, the **market** is already experiencing influences, such as concerns about the law contributing to slumps in European cocoa prices by March 2024 [[^]](https://euobserver.com/205963/cocoa-price-slumps-despite-eu-deforestation-law/). Therefore, by Q1 2026, the impact will likely manifest as operational adjustments, increased costs for traceability infrastructure, and shifts in sourcing strategies, rather than an immediate blockage of goods due to non-compliance.

## What Are the Latest Cocoa Port Arrivals for Ivory Coast and Ghana?

Ivory Coast Cumulative Arrivals | 1.68 million metric tons (as of March 31, 2026) [[^]](https://cropgpt.ai/ivory-coast-cocoa-monthly-report-march-2026) |
Ghana Cumulative Arrivals | 620,000 metric tons (as of March 31, 2026) [[^]](https://cropgpt.ai/ghana-cocoa-monthly-report-march-2026) |
Ivory Coast Year-on-Year Decrease | 1.2% (compared to previous season) [[^]](https://cropgpt.ai/ivory-coast-cocoa-monthly-report-march-2026) |

**Ivory Coast's cocoa arrivals lagged expectations and prior year figures for its 2025/2026 main crop**

Ivory Coast's cocoa arrivals lagged expectations and prior year figures for its 2025/2026 main crop. As of March 31, 2026, cumulative main crop cocoa port arrivals reached 1.68 million metric tons, a **1.2%** decrease compared to the 1.70 million metric tons recorded during the same period in the previous season [[^]](https://cropgpt.ai/ivory-coast-cocoa-monthly-report-march-2026). This figure fell short of the Q4 2025 analyst consensus, which had projected arrivals of approximately 1.75 million metric tons [[^]](https://cropgpt.ai/ivory-coast-cocoa-monthly-report-march-2026). The declining trend in arrivals was consistent throughout March [[^]](https://www.cocoaintel.com/ivory-coast-cocoa-arrivals-decline-1-2-as-of-march-22/).

Ghana also reported a significant shortfall in its main crop arrivals, totaling 620,000 metric tons by March 31, 2026 [[^]](https://cropgpt.ai/ghana-cocoa-monthly-report-march-2026). This marks a **5.0%** reduction from the 650,000 metric tons delivered by the same date in the prior year [[^]](https://cropgpt.ai/ghana-cocoa-monthly-report-march-2026). These arrivals were below the Q4 2025 analyst expectations, which had estimated Ghana's figures for this period to be between 640,000 and 660,000 metric tons [[^]](https://cropgpt.ai/ghana-cocoa-monthly-report-march-2026).

## What Global Cocoa Production Shifts Are Expected by 2026?

West Africa Cocoa Output Drop | 10% in 2025/2026 season [[^]](https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/west-africa-facing-10-drop-cocoa-output-202526-industry-sources-say-2025-07-09/) |
Ecuador Cocoa Output Forecast | 500,000 metric tons in 2025 [[^]](https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/ecuador-set-become-worlds-no-2-cocoa-grower-industry-head-says-2025-09-22/) |
Ecuador Cocoa Exports Forecast | Exceed 623,000 metric tons in 2026 [[^]](https://hk.marketscreener.com/news/ecuador-cocoa-exports-expected-to-exceed-623-000-metric-tons-in-2026-anecacao-says-ce7d5ed2da88f62d) |

**Ecuador's projected cocoa growth could significantly offset West African supply deficit**

Ecuador's projected cocoa growth could significantly offset West African supply deficit. Emerging producer Ecuador anticipates substantial increases in cocoa output and exports for the 2025/2026 period. The nation is expected to produce approximately 500,000 metric tons in 2025, positioning it as the world's second-largest cocoa producer [[^]](https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/ecuador-set-become-worlds-no-2-cocoa-grower-industry-head-says-2025-09-22/). Furthermore, its cocoa exports are projected to exceed 623,000 metric tons in 2026 [[^]](https://hk.marketscreener.com/news/ecuador-cocoa-exports-expected-to-exceed-623-000-metric-tons-in-2026-anecacao-says-ce7d5ed2da88f62d). This substantial growth from Ecuador alone has the potential to offset a considerable portion, if not the entirety, of the forecasted 5-**10%** supply deficit from West Africa in the 2025/2026 season [[^]](https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/west-africa-facing-10-drop-cocoa-output-202526-industry-sources-say-2025-07-09/).

Brazil's cocoa sector decline means it won't help global supply. In contrast to Ecuador, Brazil's contributions are not expected to mitigate a potential global supply deficit. Reports from the National Association of Cocoa Processors (AIPC) indicate that Brazil's cocoa grinding decreased by **15%** in the fourth quarter of 2025 compared to the same period in 2024, processing only 46,000 tons of cocoa beans [[^]](https://newsletters.brazilian.report/p/brazil-cocoa-production-chocolate). This reduction was primarily attributed to lower domestic and international demand [[^]](https://newsletters.brazilian.report/p/brazil-cocoa-production-chocolate). There are no current forecasts for increased crop output from Brazil that would help alleviate a global supply shortage in 2025/2026. Therefore, any potential offset to the West African deficit will rely predominantly on Ecuador's forecasted production growth.

## How Is Global Chocolate Demand Reacting to High Cocoa Prices?

North American Cocoa Grindings | 3.8% fall (Q1 2026) [[^]](https://www.cocoaintel.com/north-america-cocoa-grindings-fall-3-8-in-q1-2026-signaling-weak-demand-recovery/) |
Asian Cocoa Grindings | 5.2% increase (Q1 2026) [[^]](https://www.cocoaintel.com/asia-cocoa-grindings-rise-5-2-yoy-to-223-503-tonnes-in-q1-2026-caa-reports/) |
Brazilian Grinding Activity | Stalled (Q1 2026) [[^]](https://www.foodbusinessmea.com/brazil-cocoa-bean-receipts-surge-61-in-q1-2026-as-grinding-stalls-amid-weak-demand/) |

**Weak grind data indicates declining global cocoa demand and elasticity**

Weak grind data indicates declining global cocoa demand and elasticity. Overall, major processing regions reported a significant softening of demand for cocoa, demonstrating elasticity as consumers reduce chocolate consumption or manufacturers adjust production due to historically high cocoa bean costs. North American cocoa grindings notably declined by **3.8%** in Q1 2026, signaling a weak demand recovery [[^]](https://www.cocoaintel.com/north-america-cocoa-grindings-fall-3-8-in-q1-2026-signaling-weak-demand-recovery/). Similarly, European cocoa processing weakened further during Q1 2026, which contributed to a decline in cocoa prices [[^]](https://www.cocoaintel.com/european-cocoa-processing-weakens-further-in-q1-2026/).

Regional cocoa demand varies despite overall weakness in major markets. While many regions experienced a downturn, Asian cocoa grindings bucked the trend, rising **5.2%** year-over-year to 223,503 tonnes in Q1 2026 [[^]](https://www.cocoaintel.com/asia-cocoa-grindings-rise-5-2-yoy-to-223-503-tonnes-in-q1-2026-caa-reports/). However, in Brazil, grinding activity stalled despite a significant **61%** surge in cocoa bean receipts in Q1 2026, indicating weak demand [[^]](https://www.foodbusinessmea.com/brazil-cocoa-bean-receipts-surge-61-in-q1-2026-as-grinding-stalls-amid-weak-demand/). The cumulative effect of weakened processing in key regions like Europe and North America, alongside global demand faltering, has been a significant factor in recent cocoa price declines, with **market** reports citing weak grind data as deepening **market** corrections [[^]](https://www.cocoaintel.com/daily-cocoa-**market**-report-17-april-2026-cocoa-extends-decline-as-improving-supply-and-weak-grind-data-deepen-**market**-correction/).

## What Could Change the Odds

**Key takeaway.** Catalyst analysis unavailable.

## Key Dates & Catalysts

- **Expiration:** May 07, 2026
- **Closes:** April 30, 2026

## Decision-Flipping Events

- Catalyst analysis unavailable.

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## Historical Resolutions

No historical resolution data available for this series.

## Disclaimer

This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or trading advice.
Prediction markets involve risk of loss. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
We are not affiliated with Kalshi or any prediction market platform. Market data may be delayed or incomplete.

### Data Sources & Model Transparency

**Data Sources:** Octagon Deep Research aggregates information from multiple sources including news, filings, and market data.

**Freshness:** Analysis is generated periodically and may not reflect the latest developments. Verify critical information from primary sources.