# Highest temperature in NYC on Apr 4, 2026? On Apr 4, 2026 Updated: April 4, 2026 Category: Climate and Weather Tags: Daily temperature HTML: /markets/climate-and-weather/daily-temperature/highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-apr-4-2026/ ## Short Answer **Key takeaway.** Both the **model** and the **market** expect the highest temperature in NYC on Apr 4, 2026 to be 72° to 73°, with no compelling evidence of mispricing. ## Key Claims (January 2026) **- - ENSO-neutral conditions are consistently projected for Spring 2026.** - North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) shows mixed signal for April 2026. - Warmer coastal sea temperatures expected off New England for March 2026. - Lack of strong climate drivers suggests temperatures near climatological average. - April 4, 2026, enters 10-day weather forecasts on March 25. ### Why This Matters (GEO) - AI agents extract claims, not arguments. - Improves citation probability in summaries and answer cards. - Enables fact stitching across multiple sources. ## Executive Verdict **Key takeaway.** **Model**'s **0.9%** for sub-40°F is slightly below 1c **market** (100x payout), as extreme cold is improbable given forecasts. ### Who Wins and Why | Outcome | Market | Model | Why | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Outcome | 1.0% | 0.9% | Market higher by 0.1pp | ## Model vs Market - Model Probability: 0.9% (Yes) - Market Probability: 1.0% (Yes) - Yes refers to: Yes - Edge: -0.1pp - Expected Return: -10.0% - R-Score: -0.01 - Total Volume: $194,071 - 24h Volume: $187,740 - Open Interest: $124,826 - Expiration: April 5, 2026 ## Market Behavior & Price Dynamics This market, which tracked the probability of the high temperature in NYC reaching a specific threshold on April 4, 2026, experienced significant volatility in its final days before resolution. The price began at a 15.0% probability and trended generally downward over its lifespan, but saw a sharp 16.0 percentage point spike to a peak of 32.0% on April 3rd. This pre-resolution spike likely reflected late-breaking weather forecasts that increased the perceived chance of a warmer day. However, this was immediately followed by a decisive 31.0 percentage point collapse on the resolution date, April 4th, with the price plummeting to 1.0%. This final drop indicates that as the day progressed, the actual observed temperature failed to meet the market's threshold, leading to a near-certain "NO" resolution. The trading volume provides insight into market conviction during these movements. While volume was moderate during the price spike on April 3rd, it surged significantly during the price collapse on April 4th. This pattern suggests that while the optimistic forecast drew some speculative interest, the market reacted with much greater certainty and trading activity once real-time weather data became available, confirming the outcome. The peak price of 32.0% acted as a final resistance level, which was quickly rejected. The ultimate support level was established near zero (at 1.0%) as the contract resolved. Overall, the chart illustrates a market shifting from forecast-based speculation to data-driven certainty. Initial market sentiment held a modest belief that the temperature target was achievable. This sentiment briefly turned more bullish based on short-term forecasts just before the resolution date. The final, overwhelming sentiment, backed by high-volume trading, was decisively bearish as the actual weather on April 4th did not meet the contract's criteria, leading the market to resolve as expected. ## Significant Price Movements ### Outcome: 72° to 73° #### 📈 April 04, 2026: 61.0pp spike Price increased from 13.0% to 74.0% **What happened:** No supporting research available for this anomaly. ### Outcome: 67° or below #### 📈 April 03, 2026: 16.0pp spike Price increased from 15.0% to 31.0% **What happened:** No supporting research available for this anomaly. ## Contract Snapshot This market concerns the highest temperature recorded in New York City on April 4th, 2026. A YES resolution is triggered if the temperature meets an unspecified "highest" condition for that day, with a NO resolution occurring if it does not. The provided content does not detail specific temperature thresholds or any special settlement conditions. ## Market Discussion Limited public discussion available for this market. ## Are Niño 3.4 SST Anomaly Forecasts Available for March-May 2026? Niño 3.4 Forecast Availability (Mar-May 2026) | Not available from public sources [[^]](https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml) | Typical Seasonal Model Lead Time | 6 to 13 months [[^]](https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml) | March-May 2026 Lead Time | Approximately 15-18 months from current initializations [[^]](https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml) | **Specific long-range ENSO forecasts are not publicly available** Specific long-range ENSO forecasts are not publicly available. Direct projections from NOAA's CFSv2 and the ECMWF seasonal models for the Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomaly during the March-April-May 2026 period are not accessible via public sources. Operational seasonal climate forecast models from centers like NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) typically issue outlooks for lead times ranging from approximately 6 to 13 months [[^]](https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml). The March-April-May 2026 period extends to approximately 15 to 18 months beyond current initialization windows. Forecast skill diminishes significantly for distant ENSO predictions. At such extended lead times, the ability of even advanced seasonal models to accurately predict specific El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) states, including a precise Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomaly, substantially decreases [[^]](https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml). As a result, public resources like the CPC ENSO Diagnostic Discussions, IRI Quick Look, and ECMWF seasonal charts do not offer definitive numerical projections for the Niño 3.4 region for this distant future period, and any such projections would be subject to extreme uncertainty [[^]](https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml). ## What is the North Atlantic Oscillation forecast for April 2026? UK Met Office NAO Signal (April 2026) | No strong signal for a consistently positive phase [[^]](https://nationalaffairs.co.uk/tech/long-term-weather-forecast-uk/) | UK Met Office NAO Pattern (April 2026) | More variable pattern with periods of both positive and negative phases [[^]](https://nationalaffairs.co.uk/tech/long-term-weather-forecast-uk/) | C3S Explicit NAO Prediction (April 2026) | Not detailed in general seasonal forecast overviews [[^]](https://climate.copernicus.eu/seasonal-forecasts) | **The UK Met Office anticipates a mixed North Atlantic Oscillation signal for April 2026** The UK Met Office anticipates a mixed North Atlantic Oscillation signal for April 2026. Their Spring 2026 outlook indicates "no strong signal for a consistently positive NAO" phase for April 2026 [[^]](https://nationalaffairs.co.uk/tech/long-term-weather-forecast-uk/). Instead, the Met Office foresees a "mixed picture" for the NAO, with "periods of both positive and negative phases" leading to changeable conditions [[^]](https://nationalaffairs.co.uk/tech/long-term-weather-forecast-uk/). This suggests uncertainty regarding prolonged milder, southerly airflows for regions like New York City, which are typically associated with a persistent positive NAO phase [[^]](https://nationalaffairs.co.uk/tech/long-term-weather-forecast-uk/). Conversely, the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) does not explicitly detail specific NAO index predictions. C3S comprehensive seasonal forecasts, based on a multi-**model** ensemble approach, do not explicitly detail specific predictions for the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index for April 2026 within their general seasonal forecast pages [[^]](https://climate.copernicus.eu/seasonal-forecasts). C3S seasonal forecasts typically provide probabilistic outlooks for parameters such as temperature and precipitation anomalies, often discussing larger-scale drivers, but a direct prediction of the NAO index phase for a specific future month like April 2026 is not readily available in these summary resources [[^]](https://climate.copernicus.eu/seasonal-forecasts). ## Can April 2026 Analogue Years Be Identified? ENSO State April 2026 | ENSO-neutral (March-May 2026 outlook) [[^]](https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml) | AMO State April 2026 | Not projected in sources [[^]](https://tropical.colostate.edu/archive_amo.html) | Analogue Years Identification | Not possible due to missing AMO forecast and specific generator output [[^]](https://frontierweather.dtn.com/climatemaps/ENSOAnalogYearGenerator2.html) | **Multiple climate outlooks project an ENSO-neutral state for April 2026** Multiple climate outlooks project an ENSO-neutral state for April 2026. Forecasts for April 2026 consistently indicate ENSO-neutral conditions. The Climate Prediction Center of NOAA projected these conditions through May 2026 as of March 2026 [[^]](https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml). This outlook was supported by the International Research Institute for Climate and Society’s (IRI) March-April-May 2026 forecast [[^]](https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/), the World Meteorological Organization’s (WMO) Global Seasonal Climate Updates for March-April-May 2026 [[^]](http://public.wmo.int/media/update/global-seasonal-climate-update-march-april-may-2026) and April-May-June 2026 [[^]](https://www.wmo.int/media/update/global-seasonal-climate-update-april-may-june-2026), and the WMO’s February 2026 El Niño/La Niña Update [[^]](https://www.wmo.int/resources/publication-series/el-ninola-nina-updates/el-ninola-nina-update-february-2026). Identifying analogue years for April 4th is currently not possible. The research, however, lacks a specific projection for the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) state for April 2026, as source [[^]](https://tropical.colostate.edu/archive_amo.html) provides an archive rather than a forecast. This absence, combined with the lack of a comprehensive database of historical conditions or specific output from an "ENSO Analog Year Generator" [[^]](https://frontierweather.dtn.com/climatemaps/ENSOAnalogYearGenerator2.html) that aligns with both ENSO and AMO criteria for 2026, precludes the identification of the top five analogue years since 2000. Consequently, while historical daily maximum temperatures for April 4th at New York City's Central Park (KNYC) are available in almanac data [[^]](https://www.weather.gov/media/okx/Climate/Almanacs/nyc/nycapr.pdf), these specific temperatures cannot be extracted for the requested analogue years. ## What are the early spring warming precursors for March 2026? Snow Cover Extent (March 2026) | Potentially record snowfall in Upper Midwest and Great Lakes [[^]](https://watchers.news/2026/03/13/potentially-record-breaking-snowfall-upper-midwest-great-lakes-major-blizzard-march-2026/) | Sea Surface Temperature (SST) off New England (March 2026) | Warmer-than-average [[^]](https://www.weatherdiary.uk/2026/03/05/1-mar-2026-sst-anomalies/) | ENSO Pattern (Spring 2026) | Shift from La Niña to emerging El Niño [[^]](https://pogodnik.com/en/news/spring-2026-forecast-flip-la-nina-collapses) | **Long-range ensemble models for March 2026 presented a mixed outlook for early spring warming** Long-range ensemble models for March 2026 presented a mixed outlook for early spring warming. Forecasts for mid-March 2026 specifically indicated a significant snowpack across the Great Lakes and southern Canada, with predictions for a major blizzard capable of bringing potentially record snowfall to parts of the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes region [[^]](https://watchers.news/2026/03/13/potentially-record-breaking-snowfall-upper-midwest-great-lakes-major-blizzard-march-2026/). This suggests that an unusually low snowpack, a key precursor favorable for rapid early spring warming, was not anticipated for this area. Broader seasonal forecasts for Spring 2026 also noted a shift from a La Niña to an emerging El Niño pattern, which can influence climate conditions across the U.S. and Canada [[^]](https://pogodnik.com/en/news/spring-2026-forecast-flip-la-nina-collapses). In contrast, warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures were consistently projected off New England for March 2026. Long-range ensemble models consistently projected elevated sea surface temperatures (SSTs) for this region. Specific outputs from models such as the Climate Forecast System (CFS) indicated positive SST anomalies across the North Atlantic region [[^]](https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/cfsv2_fcst_history/202601/htmls/glbSSTe3Mon.html). These projections for warmer coastal waters align with broader global seasonal climate updates for the March-April-May 2026 period, which generally anticipated warmer oceanic conditions across various areas [[^]](https://wmo.int/media/update/global-seasonal-climate-update-march-april-may-2026). Overall, conditions for rapid early spring warming were not fully met according to these projections. While warmer-than-average coastal waters off New England were anticipated, the forecasts for potentially record snowfall across parts of the Great Lakes and Upper Midwest in mid-March 2026 indicated that the condition of an unusually low snowpack, which would favor rapid early spring warming, was not expected [[^]](https://watchers.news/2026/03/13/potentially-record-breaking-snowfall-upper-midwest-great-lakes-major-blizzard-march-2026/). This presented a mixed scenario where both precursor conditions were not simultaneously present. ## When Will April 4, 2026, Appear in 10-Day Weather Forecasts? First Forecast Appearance Date for April 4, 2026 | March 25, 2026 (Research findings) [[^]](https://www.ecmwf.int/en/about/media-centre/focus/2024/plans-high-resolution-forecast-hres-and-ensemble-forecast-ens) | ECMWF HRES Forecast Horizon | 10 days (240 hours) (twice daily) [[^]](https://confluence.ecmwf.int/pages/viewpage.action?pageId=191632109) | GFS Maximum Forecast Horizon | 16 days (384 hours) (four times a day) [[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_Forecast_System) | **April 4, 2026, enters 10-day forecasts on March 25** April 4, 2026, enters 10-day forecasts on March 25. Both the high-resolution ECMWF (HRES) and Global Forecast System (GFS) weather models will first include April 4, 2026, within their operational 10-day forecast horizons on March 25, 2026. This is determined by calculating 10 days backward from April 4, 2026, which sets March 25, 2026, as the latest forecast run date to encompass the target date. Both models provide global forecasts with distinct operational schedules. The ECMWF HRES **model** offers a global, high-resolution deterministic forecast that extends out to 10 days (240 hours) and is run twice daily [[^]](https://confluence.ecmwf.int/pages/viewpage.action?pageId=191632109). Similarly, the GFS **model**, a global numerical weather prediction system, provides forecasts up to 16 days (384 hours) in advance, with four operational runs each day [[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_Forecast_System). Despite range differences, both models align for a 10-day view. Although the GFS has a longer maximum forecast range of 16 days, for the specific purpose of a 10-day operational forecast horizon, its inclusion of April 4, 2026, aligns with the ECMWF HRES. Consequently, **model** runs from both ECMWF HRES and GFS on March 25, 2026, will begin to illustrate the meteorological conditions for April 4, 2026, within their 10-day forecast windows. ## What Could Change the Odds **Key takeaway.** Catalyst analysis unavailable. ## Key Dates & Catalysts - **Strike Date:** April 05, 2026 - **Expiration:** April 11, 2026 - **Closes:** April 05, 2026 ## Decision-Flipping Events - Catalyst analysis unavailable. ## Related Research Reports - [Will there be an at least 8.0 magnitude earthquake in California before 2035?](/markets/climate-and-weather/will-there-be-an-at-least-8-0-magnitude-earthquake-in-california-before-2035/) - [Will a supervolcano erupt before 2050?](/markets/climate-and-weather/will-a-supervolcano-erupt-before-2050/) - [What will be the largest source of global primary energy consumption in 2030?](/markets/climate-and-weather/what-will-be-the-largest-source-of-global-primary-energy-consumption-in-2030/) - [NYC temperature on Mar 24, 2026 at 8pm EDT?](/markets/climate-and-weather/hourly-temperature/nyc-temperature-on-mar-24-2026-at-8pm-edt/) ## Historical Resolutions **Historical Resolutions:** 20 markets in this series **Outcomes:** 4 resolved YES, 16 resolved NO **Recent resolutions:** - KXHIGHNY-26APR03-T72: NO (Apr 04, 2026) - KXHIGHNY-26APR03-T65: NO (Apr 04, 2026) - KXHIGHNY-26APR03-B71.5: NO (Apr 04, 2026) - KXHIGHNY-26APR03-B69.5: NO (Apr 04, 2026) - KXHIGHNY-26APR03-B67.5: NO (Apr 04, 2026) ## Disclaimer This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or trading advice. Prediction markets involve risk of loss. Past performance does not guarantee future results. We are not affiliated with Kalshi or any prediction market platform. Market data may be delayed or incomplete. ### Data Sources & Model Transparency **Data Sources:** Octagon Deep Research aggregates information from multiple sources including news, filings, and market data. **Freshness:** Analysis is generated periodically and may not reflect the latest developments. Verify critical information from primary sources.