# Highest temperature in Dallas on May 13, 2026?

On May 13, 2026

Updated: May 13, 2026

Category: Climate and Weather

Tags: Daily temperature

HTML: /markets/climate-and-weather/daily-temperature/highest-temperature-in-dallas-on-may-13-2026/

## Short Answer

**Key takeaway.** Both the **model** and the **market** overwhelmingly agree that the highest temperature in Dallas on May 13, 2026, will be 91° to 92°, with only minor residual uncertainty.

## Key Claims (January 2026)

**- - Direct forecasts for May 13, 2026, anticipate highs in the upper 80s.** - The 1991-2020 climate normal for May 13 is 83.8°F.
- Projected El Niño phase for spring 2026 likely means less hot Texas.
- Some forecasts indicate temperatures may reach lower-90s, or even mid-90s.
- US Producer Price Index data will be released on May 13, 2026.
- Long-range temperature outlooks for May 2026 showed conflicting signals.

### Why This Matters (GEO)

- AI agents extract claims, not arguments.
- Improves citation probability in summaries and answer cards.
- Enables fact stitching across multiple sources.

## Executive Verdict

**Key takeaway.** At 3c, the **market** price is slightly above the **2.3%** **model** estimate, suggesting overvaluation with a 33.3x payout.

### Who Wins and Why

| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 91° to 92° | 46.0% | 42.8% | Direct forecasts for May 13, 2026, explicitly anticipate highs around 91°F. |
| 93° to 94° | 14.0% | 11.8% | The NWS Fort Worth/Dallas forecasts highs in the mid-90s for this period. |
| 89° to 90° | 30.0% | 28.6% | Multiple forecasts explicitly anticipate highs between 88°F and 90°F. |

## Model vs Market

| Outcome | Market Probability | Octagon Model Probability |
| --- | --- | --- |
| 91° to 92° | 46.0% | 42.8% |
| 93° to 94° | 14.0% | 11.8% |
| 89° to 90° | 30.0% | 28.6% |
| 95° or above | 6.0% | 5.8% |
| 87° to 88° | 8.0% | 8.7% |
| 86° or below | 3.0% | 2.3% |

- Expiration: May 14, 2026

## Market Behavior & Price Dynamics

The price chart for this market shows a clear and decisive downward trend. The contract began trading at a 9.0% probability on May 12, but fell sharply to its current price of 3.0% by May 13. This significant drop in perceived probability suggests that new information, likely updated weather forecasts, became available as the resolution date neared. Since the market resolves based on the official temperature reading for a specific day, its price is highly sensitive to short-term forecasts. The decline from 9.0% to 3.0% indicates that these updated forecasts likely predicted cooler temperatures, reducing the market's expectation that the high temperature would meet the threshold for a "YES" resolution.

Trading volume patterns support this interpretation and point to growing market conviction. While initial trading at the 9.0% level was relatively light, volume increased substantially as the price fell. The final data point on May 13 shows a volume of 80 contracts at the 3.0% price, accounting for a significant portion of the total 227 contracts traded. This concentration of volume at the market's low suggests strong consensus and confidence in the lower probability. The price of 3.0% has established itself as a firm support level, while the opening price of 9.0% acted as an early point of resistance. Overall, the price action reflects a strong bearish sentiment, with the market collectively assessing the chance of the event occurring as highly improbable based on the available forecast data.

## Significant Price Movements

#### 📈 May 12, 2026: 14.0pp spike

Price increased from 27.0% to 41.0%

**Outcome:** 91° to 92°

**What happened:** The provided web research does not contain information on social media activity, traditional news, or market structure factors that would explain the 14.0 percentage point spike in the "91° to 92°" outcome for Dallas's highest temperature on May 13, 2026 [[^]](https://polymarket.com/event/highest-temperature-in-dallas-on-may-13-2026). The available sources primarily define the prediction market and its resolution source [[^]](https://polymarket.com/event/highest-temperature-in-dallas-on-may-13-2026), or provide historical temperature records [[^]](https://www.extremeweatherwatch.com/cities/dallas/day/may-13) and observation history without finalized data for the specific date [[^]](https://forecast.weather.gov/data/obhistory/metric/KDAL.html). Therefore, the primary driver of this price movement cannot be determined from the provided information. Based on the current information, social media's role in this movement is unascertainable.

## Contract Snapshot

This market resolves to YES if the maximum temperature in Dallas on May 13, 2026, is between 91-92°F, according to the National Weather Service's Climatological Report (Daily), and resolves to NO if it falls outside this range. Trading concludes at 11:59 PM local time on May 13, 2026, with the official NWS CLIDFW report being the sole source for verification, and preliminary NWS data may involve rounding nuances.

## Market Discussion

The prediction market indicates a 100% probability that the highest temperature in Dallas on May 13, 2026, will be 74°F or higher, as of May 11-12, 2026 [[^]](https://polymarket.com/event/highest-temperature-in-dallas-on-may-13-2026)[[^]](https://explorer.struct.to/markets/highest-temperature-in-dallas-on-may-13-2026-74forhigher). Forecasts suggest the temperature will be well above 74°F, with some models predicting highs possibly reaching 88-91°F on that day [[^]](https://polymarket.com/ru/event/highest-temperature-in-dallas-on-may-13-2026)[[^]](https://hoodline.com/2026/05/dallas-ditches-the-chill-as-90s-heat-cranks-up-by-midweek/)[[^]](https://weathershogun.com/weather/usa/tx/dallas/4330/may/2026-05-13)[[^]](https://globalmeteo.com/weather/dallas-88869/may-13/). Specific historical data for May 13, 2026, is not yet available [[^]](https://polymarket.com/event/highest-temperature-in-dallas-on-may-13-2026)[[^]](https://wu-next-core-us-east-1-aws.wunderground.com/history/monthly/us/tx/dallas/KTXDALLA936/date/2026-5).

## Market Data

| Contract | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | Last Price | Volume | Open Interest |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 87° to 88° | 6% | 8% | 8% | $615.25 | $420.47 |
| 89° to 90° | 28% | 31% | 30% | $978.87 | $934.25 |
| 91° to 92° | 46% | 47% | 46% | $1,677.53 | $1,648.53 |
| 93° to 94° | 13% | 14% | 14% | $1,251.63 | $1,003.63 |
| 86° or below | 3% | 4% | 4% | $696.87 | $651.87 |
| 95° or above | 3% | 6% | 6% | $886.88 | $652.7 |

## What is the 30-year historical temperature distribution for May 13 at Dallas Love Field (KDAL)?

May Normal Maximum Temperature (1991-2020) | 84.9°F [[^]](https://www.weather.gov/fwd/dallasloveclimatology) |
May Normal Minimum Temperature (1991-2020) | 66.0°F [[^]](https://www.weather.gov/fwd/dallasloveclimatology) |
May 13 Record High Temperature | 95°F in 1955 [[^]](https://www.extremeweatherwatch.com/cities/dallas/day/may-13) |

**Specific May 13 temperature distribution for KDAL was unavailable**

Specific May 13 temperature distribution for KDAL was unavailable. The 30-year historical temperature distribution for May 13 at Dallas Love Field (KDAL) could not be located within the provided research materials. Although general monthly normal temperatures and a specific May 13 record high are documented, a day-specific distribution for the requested period was not retrieved [[^]](https://www.weather.gov/fwd/dallasloveclimatology).

General monthly normals and a record high were documented. For Dallas Love Field, the NOAA/NWS 30-year normals (1991–2020) indicate a May normal maximum of 84.9°F and a normal minimum of 66.0°F. These figures represent monthly averages for May and do not provide the specific May 13 distribution that was sought [[^]](https://www.weather.gov/fwd/dallasloveclimatology). Additionally, a historical record-high temperature for May 13 in Dallas was 95°F, set in 1955, which serves as an upper bound for temperatures on that date but does not constitute a distribution [[^]](https://www.extremeweatherwatch.com/cities/dallas/day/may-13). While the NWS station time-series viewer for KDAL exists and can provide temperature charts over various date ranges, the available materials did not include an exported or aggregated 30-year distribution specifically for May 13 [[^]](https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=KDAL).

## What specific atmospheric setup, such as a 'heat dome', would be required for Dallas to reach the 95°F or higher bracket on May 13, 2026?

Required Atmospheric Setup | Heat dome or heat-wave-like setup [[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heat_Dome)[[^]](https://scientificamerican.com/article/what-is-a-heat-dome)[[^]](https://www.chron.com/weather/article/heat-dome-texas-22083996.php) |
Normal High for May 13 DFW | Low/mid 90s [[^]](https://www.weather.gov/fwd/dfw_records_normals) |
May 13, 2026 Dallas Forecast | No definitive forecast for ">95	F" available [[^]](https://www.weatherbug.com/weather-forecast/hourly/dallas-tx-75219?hour=5&pu=1&tu=1&wsu=1)[[^]](https://patch.com/texas/dallas-ftworth/warm-dry-conditions-headed-north-texas-week) |

**For Dallas to reach 95°F or higher on May 13, 2026, a specific atmospheric setup involving persistent high pressure would be required**

For Dallas to reach 95°F or higher on May 13, 2026, a specific atmospheric setup involving persistent high pressure would be required. This setup, often termed a heat dome or heat wave, traps air and warms it through sinking and compression, simultaneously suppressing convection and precipitation [[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heat_Dome)[[^]](https://scientificamerican.com/article/what-is-a-heat-dome)[[^]](https://www.chron.com/weather/article/heat-dome-texas-22083996.php). Such conditions would necessitate additional clear-sky heating and subsidence beyond what is typical for mid-May [[^]](https://www.weather.gov/fwd/dfw_records_normals). Prerequisite conditions for Dallas would include a broader warm and dry pattern, allowing for a "lid + clear sky + subsidence" scenario capable of pushing temperatures towards triple digits [[^]](https://patch.com/texas/dallas-ftworth/warm-dry-conditions-headed-north-texas-week)[[^]](https://www.chron.com/weather/article/storms-heat-texas-amarillo-dallas-22251895.php). Under these circumstances, forecasts for North Texas during early to mid-May can climb into the 80s or 90s with low storm probabilities [[^]](https://patch.com/texas/dallas-ftworth/warm-dry-conditions-headed-north-texas-week).

While possible, no specific forecast confirms 95°F for May 13, 2026. Temperatures of 95°F or higher are within the climatological range for the DFW area in mid-May, as the normal high for May 13 typically falls in the low to mid-90s [[^]](https://www.weather.gov/fwd/dfw_records_normals). Such a temperature is meteorologically plausible if the right synoptic pattern develops [[^]](https://www.weather.gov/fwd/dfw_records_normals). However, no source provided a definitive forecast or observed maximum specifically indicating 95°F or higher for Dallas on May 13, 2026 [[^]](https://www.weatherbug.com/weather-forecast/hourly/dallas-tx-75219?hour=5&pu=1&tu=1&wsu=1)[[^]](https://patch.com/texas/dallas-ftworth/warm-dry-conditions-headed-north-texas-week). Therefore, the exact atmospheric ingredients for that particular date in Dallas can only be qualitatively described as a heat-dome ridge/subsidence with suppressed clouds and convection, rather than being quantitatively specified [[^]](https://www.weatherbug.com/weather-forecast/hourly/dallas-tx-75219?hour=5&pu=1&tu=1&wsu=1)[[^]](https://patch.com/texas/dallas-ftworth/warm-dry-conditions-headed-north-texas-week).

## How do long-range forecasts from the US Climate Prediction Center (CPC) and the European ECMWF model differ for North Texas in May 2026?

Dallas Forecast High Temperature | 88-90°F (May 13, 2026 [[^]](https://www.google.com/search?q=weather+in+Dallas, TX,+US)[[^]](https://www.houstonchronicle.com/news/weather/article/another-warm-sunny-day-before-rain-comes-back-22253834.php)) |
CPC North Texas Spring Temperature | 40-50% chance of above-normal (March-May 2026 [[^]](https://www.houstonchronicle.com/san-antonio-weather/forecast/article/texas-weather-may-outlook-storms-weekend-22236412.php)) |
North Texas Precipitation Outlook | Favors above-average rainfall (May 2026 [[^]](https://www.houstonchronicle.com/san-antonio-weather/forecast/article/texas-weather-may-outlook-storms-weekend-22236412.php)[[^]](https://www.houstonchronicle.com/news/weather/article/another-warm-sunny-day-before-rain-comes-back-22253834.php)) |

**Long-range temperature forecasts for May 2026 showed conflicting signals**

Long-range temperature forecasts for May 2026 showed conflicting signals. The US Climate Prediction Center (CPC) initially indicated a 40-**50%** chance of above-normal temperatures for meteorological spring (March-May 2026) [[^]](https://www.houstonchronicle.com/san-antonio-weather/forecast/article/texas-weather-may-outlook-storms-weekend-22236412.php). However, a later "Week 3-4 Outlook" from early May 2026 shifted to "Equal Chances" for below, near, or above-normal temperatures across Texas in late May and early June [[^]](https://climateimpactcompany.com/daily-feature-high-impact-climate-for-mar-apr-may-2026-according-to-ecmwf-2/). Conversely, the European ECMWF **model** suggested a warm and dry mid-spring in the southern Great Plains, including late meteorological spring [[^]](https://climateimpactcompany.com/daily-feature-high-impact-climate-for-mar-apr-may-2026-according-to-ecmwf-2/), but an immediate report in early May 2026 referenced an ECMWF forecast for May 12-17 indicating a "cool and unsettled pattern continues through mid-May" [[^]](https://weather.substack.com/p/may-5-2026-tuesday-spring-weather). Despite these differing signals, a specific high temperature for Dallas on May 13, 2026, was predicted to be between 88°F and 90°F [[^]](https://www.google.com/search?q=weather+in+Dallas, TX,+US)[[^]](https://www.houstonchronicle.com/news/weather/article/another-warm-sunny-day-before-rain-comes-back-22253834.php).

Both models largely converged on above-average rainfall for May. For precipitation in North Texas during May 2026, the CPC's outlook initially predicted "equal chances" for rainfall in the spring [[^]](https://www.houstonchronicle.com/san-antonio-weather/forecast/article/texas-weather-may-outlook-storms-weekend-22236412.php). This evolved to "slightly favors above-average rainfall" across much of Texas [[^]](https://www.houstonchronicle.com/san-antonio-weather/forecast/article/texas-weather-may-outlook-storms-weekend-22236412.php)[[^]](https://www.houstonchronicle.com/news/weather/article/another-warm-sunny-day-before-rain-comes-back-22253834.php), further supported by a later outlook favoring "a broad swath of above normal precipitation extending from the Southern Plains" [[^]](https://climateimpactcompany.com/daily-feature-high-impact-climate-for-mar-apr-may-2026-according-to-ecmwf-2/). Similarly, the ECMWF **model** projected "well above the monthly climate-average" rainfall for San Antonio during May [[^]](https://www.houstonchronicle.com/san-antonio-weather/forecast/article/texas-weather-may-outlook-storms-weekend-22236412.php)[[^]](https://www.houstonchronicle.com/news/weather/article/another-warm-sunny-day-before-rain-comes-back-22253834.php). Its early May 2026 forecast described a "moisture plume out of Subtropical Pacific extend[ing] eastward through Texas to combine with Gulf of Mexico," causing "rainfall from Texas into the Southeast over next several days" [[^]](https://weather.substack.com/p/may-5-2026-tuesday-spring-weather).

## How might the projected El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phase in spring 2026 influence temperature patterns across North Texas?

El Niño Probability (May-July 2026) | 61% (Climate Prediction Center) [[^]](https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml) |
El Niño Probability (April-June 2026) | 70% (IRI) [[^]](https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/) |
Dallas Temperature Probability (May 13, 2026) | 100% chance of 74°F or higher (Polymarket) [[^]](https://polymarket.com/event/highest-temperature-in-dallas-on-may-13-2026) |

**El Niño is projected to dominate the ENSO phase for spring 2026**

El Niño is projected to dominate the ENSO phase for spring 2026. Forecasts indicate a **61%** **probability** for El Niño during May-July 2026 by the Climate Prediction Center and **70%** for April-June 2026 by the International Research Institute for Climate and Society [[^]](https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml). This particular ENSO phase is generally linked with less hot, yet variable, summer temperatures across Texas [[^]](https://www.nbcdfw.com/weather/weather-connection/super-el-nino-impacts-on-north-texas-weather/4007975/).

The current ENSO phase is neutral after a La Niña period. This prior La Niña phase resulted in a warm and dry winter for Texas [[^]](https://www.facebook.com/TxStormChasers/posts/la-ni%C3%B1a-is-over-and-we-are-enso-neutral-for-the-next-few-months-before-entering-/1499050248546274/). While El Niño typically shifts the jet stream southward, leading to cooler and wetter conditions during Texas winters, its impact during warmer months in Texas is characterized by less overall heat and increased variability [[^]](https://www.nbcdfw.com/weather/weather-connection/super-el-nino-impacts-on-north-texas-weather/4007975/). Specific temperature influences for North Texas in May 2026 are not provided beyond this general summer characterization of El Niño's impact [[^]](https://www.nbcdfw.com/weather/weather-connection/super-el-nino-impacts-on-north-texas-weather/4007975/). Separately, Polymarket odds on May 11, 2026, indicated a **100%** **probability** for Dallas reaching 74°F or higher on May 13, 2026 [[^]](https://polymarket.com/event/highest-temperature-in-dallas-on-may-13-2026).

## Is there a discernible warming trend in recent May 13th temperatures (2015-2025) at KDAL compared to the 1991-2020 climate normal?

1991-2020 Climate Normal for May 13 | 83.80F (Dallas) [[^]](https://www.extremeweatherwatch.com/cities/dallas/day/may-13) |
Highest May 13 Temperature (2015-2025) | 940F (2025 in Dallas) [[^]](https://www.extremeweatherwatch.com/cities/dallas/day/may-13) |
Lowest May 13 Temperature (2015-2025) | 710F (2015 in Dallas) [[^]](https://www.extremeweatherwatch.com/cities/dallas/day/may-13) |

**The average high temperature on May 13th in Dallas, KDAL, is 83.8°F, according to the 1991-2020 climate normal [[^]](https://www.extremeweatherwatch.com/cities/dallas/day/may-13)**

The average high temperature on May 13th in Dallas, KDAL, is 83.8°F, according to the 1991-2020 climate normal [[^]](https://www.extremeweatherwatch.com/cities/dallas/day/may-13). High temperatures recorded for May 13th between 2015 and 2025 have displayed considerable variability. During this period, several instances surpassed the established normal, while others registered below it [[^]](https://www.extremeweatherwatch.com/cities/dallas/day/may-13).

Many May 13th temperatures from 2015-2025 were above the 83.8°F normal [[^]](https://www.extremeweatherwatch.com/cities/dallas/day/may-13). Notable examples include 94°F in 2025, 91°F in both 2022 and 2018, and 85°F in 2023 and 2017. Additionally, 84°F was recorded in 2020, 2019, and 2016. Conversely, temperatures falling below the normal include 83°F in 2024, 76°F in 2021, and 71°F in 2015 [[^]](https://www.extremeweatherwatch.com/cities/dallas/day/may-13).

Based solely on the provided historical high temperatures for May 13th from 2015 to 2025 and the 1991-2020 climate normal, the research does not explicitly identify a discernible warming trend [[^]](https://www.extremeweatherwatch.com/cities/dallas/day/may-13).

## What Could Change the Odds

**Economic data releases and Federal Reserve speeches are significant catalysts.** On May 13, 2026, the US Producer Price Index (PPI) data, including PPI ex-Food & Energy and PPI ex-Food, Energy & Trade (month-over-month and year-over-year), will be released [[^]](https://www.thomsoninvestmentgroup.com/economic-calendar-may-2026)[[^]](https://us.econoday.com/). Higher-than-expected PPI could be inflationary, potentially leading to bearish sentiment in bond markets and raising interest rate concerns [[^]](https://www.enterprisebank.com/insights/geopolitical-update-may-2026). US Retail Sales Data and Jobless Claims are scheduled for May 14, 2026 [[^]](https://www.thomsoninvestmentgroup.com/economic-calendar-may-2026)[[^]](https://us.econoday.com/). Federal Reserve officials including Susan Collins, Neel Kashkari, and Lorie Logan are set to speak on May 13, 2026, with Jeffrey Schmid, Beth Hammack, John Williams, and Michael Barr scheduled for May 14, 2026 [[^]](https://us.econoday.com/). The U.S.-China trade de-escalation, confirmed around May 10-11, 2026, has led to a broad rally in semiconductor equities [[^]](https://www.lines.com/prediction-markets/finance/will-nvda-hit-week-of-may-11-2026).

**Ongoing geopolitical events and market trends also present key catalysts.** The U.S.-Iran conflict remains in a stalemate as of early May 2026, with crude oil prices fluctuating around **$100** per barrel, and continued high energy prices could lead to increased headline inflation [[^]](https://www.enterprisebank.com/insights/geopolitical-update-may-2026). The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index hit a record low in early May 2026, with consumers citing concerns over gas prices and tariffs [[^]](https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/macro/**market**-quick-take---11-may-2026-11052026). In digital assets, Bitcoin has been trading above USD 80,000, and crypto equities are attracting bullish call flow [[^]](https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/macro/**market**-quick-take---11-may-2026-11052026). Commodities show oil prices rebounded, gold weakened, and a continuing rush of hedge funds into agriculture [[^]](https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/macro/**market**-quick-take---11-may-2026-11052026). Global yields are also rebounding due to the latest surge in crude oil prices [[^]](https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/macro/**market**-quick-take---11-may-2026-11052026). Additionally, the 2026 Iraq Dialogue is scheduled for May 13, 2026 [[^]](https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/events/), and Nakba Day on May 16, 2026, carries a heightened risk of military clashes [[^]](https://www.controlrisks.com/our-thinking/geopolitical-calendar). For Dallas, the highest temperature on May 13, 2026, is anticipated to be between 78°F and 93°F [[^]](https://www.accuweather.com/en/us/dallas/75202/may-weather/351194), with a prediction **market** offering contracts for temperatures above various thresholds [[^]](https://robinhood.com/us/en/prediction-markets/climate/events/dallas-daily-temperature-high-may-13-2026-may-13-2026/).

## Key Dates & Catalysts

- **Strike Date:** May 14, 2026
- **Expiration:** May 20, 2026
- **Closes:** May 14, 2026

## Decision-Flipping Events

- Economic data releases and Federal Reserve speeches are significant catalysts.
- On May 13, 2026, the US Producer Price Index (PPI) data, including PPI ex-Food & Energy and PPI ex-Food, Energy & Trade (month-over-month and year-over-year), will be released [^] [^] .
- Higher-than-expected PPI could be inflationary, potentially leading to bearish sentiment in bond markets and raising interest rate concerns [^] .
- US Retail Sales Data and Jobless Claims are scheduled for May 14, 2026 [^] [^] .

## Related Research Reports

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- [Will there be an at least 8.0 magnitude earthquake in California before 2028?](/markets/climate-and-weather/will-there-be-an-at-least-8-0-magnitude-earthquake-in-california-before-2028/)
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## Historical Resolutions

**Historical Resolutions:** 20 markets in this series

**Outcomes:** 4 resolved YES, 16 resolved NO

**Recent resolutions:**

- KXHIGHTDAL-26MAY11-T82: NO (May 12, 2026)
- KXHIGHTDAL-26MAY11-T75: NO (May 12, 2026)
- KXHIGHTDAL-26MAY11-B81.5: NO (May 12, 2026)
- KXHIGHTDAL-26MAY11-B79.5: YES (May 12, 2026)
- KXHIGHTDAL-26MAY11-B77.5: NO (May 12, 2026)

## Disclaimer

This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or trading advice.
Prediction markets involve risk of loss. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
We are not affiliated with Kalshi or any prediction market platform. Market data may be delayed or incomplete.

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**Data Sources:** Octagon Deep Research aggregates information from multiple sources including news, filings, and market data.

**Freshness:** Analysis is generated periodically and may not reflect the latest developments. Verify critical information from primary sources.

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