# Highest temperature in Atlanta on May 4, 2026?

On May 4, 2026

Updated: May 4, 2026

Category: Climate and Weather

Tags: Daily temperature

HTML: /markets/climate-and-weather/daily-temperature/highest-temperature-in-atlanta-on-may-4-2026/

## Short Answer

**Key takeaway.** Both the **model** and the **market** expect the highest temperature in Atlanta on May 4, 2026, to be 78° to 79°, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.

## Key Claims (January 2026)

**- - Historical average for May 4 in Atlanta is 77.6°F.** - A long-range **model** forecast predicts 77°F for the date.
- Fulton County is experiencing D3 Extreme Drought conditions.
- **Market** sentiment indicates a shift away from higher temperature outcomes.
- Forecasts predict sunny conditions for May 4, 2026.

### Why This Matters (GEO)

- AI agents extract claims, not arguments.
- Improves citation probability in summaries and answer cards.
- Enables fact stitching across multiple sources.

## Executive Verdict

**Key takeaway.** **Model** sees **2.8%** **probability** vs 2c **market** price, a +0.8pp gap supported by historical average.

### Who Wins and Why

| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 75° or below | 2.0% | 2.8% | Historical average (77.6°F) and a long-range model forecast of 77°F align strongly. |
| 80° to 81° | 19.0% | 17.5% | This range is well above the historical average, and market sentiment shows a shift away. |
| 78° to 79° | 51.0% | 53.2% | It is the current leading outcome, very close to the historical average, with clear skies. |

## Model vs Market

| Outcome | Market Probability | Octagon Model Probability |
| --- | --- | --- |
| 75° or below | 2.0% | 2.8% |
| 80° to 81° | 19.0% | 17.5% |
| 78° to 79° | 51.0% | 53.2% |
| 84° or above | 1.0% | 1.1% |
| 76° to 77° | 21.0% | 23.5% |
| 82° to 83° | 2.0% | 1.9% |

- Expiration: May 5, 2026

## Market Behavior & Price Dynamics

The prediction market for the highest temperature in Atlanta reaching or exceeding 76°F on May 4, 2026, has exhibited a stable, sideways trend with minimal volatility. The contract price has been confined to an extremely narrow trading range between 1.0% and 8.0%. Beginning at a 2.0% probability, the price has not experienced any significant directional movements and currently sits at 2.0%, reflecting a lack of new catalysts to influence trader sentiment. The overall price action is flat, indicating equilibrium at a low probability assessment.

The chart shows no significant price spikes or drops that would correlate with external news or developments. The price has remained stable in the low single digits, suggesting the market has not reacted to any new information. Trading volume is very low, with a total of only 1,551 contracts traded. This low volume, spread across 16 data points, suggests limited market participation and a lack of strong conviction from traders. The low liquidity means the market could be moved by small trades, but the price has remained stagnant, reinforcing the idea of a stable, albeit weakly held, consensus.

Given the limited trading history and narrow range, formal support and resistance levels are not firmly established. However, the price has effectively found a floor near 1-2% and a ceiling at 8.0%. The current price of 2.0% is testing the bottom of this range. Overall, the chart indicates a consistently bearish market sentiment. Traders are assigning a very low probability to the temperature reaching 76°F or higher. The combination of a low, stable price and low trading volume suggests that while the prevailing belief is that this outcome is unlikely, there is little active trading interest in the market at present.

## Significant Price Movements

### Outcome: 80° to 81°

#### 📉 May 04, 2026: 14.0pp drop

Price decreased from 33.0% to 19.0%

**What happened:** The provided research indicates "no confirming news on drop or catalyst" for the 14.0 percentage point drop in the "80° to 81°" outcome for Atlanta's highest temperature on May 4, 2026 [[^]](https://polymarket.com/event/highest-temperature-in-atlanta-on-may-4-2026). Despite prioritizing social media, no relevant posts or viral narratives from key figures were identified in the available information that could have led to or coincided with this market movement. Similarly, no traditional news announcements or specific market structure factors (e.g., large trades) were found to explain the decline [[^]](https://polymarket.com/event/highest-temperature-in-atlanta-on-may-4-2026). Therefore, based solely on the provided sources, the primary driver for this price movement remains undetermined, and social media was (d) irrelevant.

### Outcome: 82° to 83°

#### 📉 May 03, 2026: 9.0pp drop

Price decreased from 12.0% to 3.0%

**What happened:** Based on the provided sources, it is not possible to identify the primary driver for the 9.0 percentage point drop in the "82° to 83°" outcome for Atlanta's May 4, 2026, high temperature prediction market. The available information details market parameters, resolution sources, and historical weather averages [[^]](https://polymarket.com/event/highest-temperature-in-atlanta-on-may-4-2026) but contains no social media activity, traditional news reports, or specific market structure events from May 3, 2026, that could explain the price movement. Without data pertaining to these factors, establishing a causal link is impossible. Consequently, the role of social media in this market shift cannot be determined from the provided materials.

## Contract Snapshot

This market resolves to YES if the maximum temperature recorded in Atlanta on May 4, 2026, is between 78-79° Fahrenheit according to the National Weather Service's Climatological Report (Daily); otherwise, it resolves to NO. Trading for this market closes at 11:59 PM local time on May 4, 2026. The market expires the sooner of 7:00 or 8:00 AM ET following the data release for May 4, 2026, or one week after that date, or by May 5, 2026 at 1:00am EDT, with projected payouts 30 minutes after closing.

## Market Discussion

The highest temperature predicted for Atlanta on May 4, 2026, is 78°F (26°C), with cloudy conditions and a 10% chance of rain [[^]](https://www.google.com/search?q=weather+in+Atlanta, GA,+US). This forecast is consistent with Atlanta's typical May temperatures, where average daily highs range from 76°F to 83°F, and the overall monthly average is around 74°F [[^]](https://weatherspark.com/m/15598/5/Average-Weather-in-May-in-Atlanta-United-States). While one long-range outlook suggests May 2026 will be warmer than usual, it also anticipates cooler temperatures during the first ten days of the month, aligning with other forecasts placing May 2026 daily highs between 70°F and 86°F [[^]](https://www.accuweather.com/en/us/atlanta/30303/may-weather/348181).

## Market Data

| Contract | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | Last Price | Volume | Open Interest |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 76° to 77° | 15% | 21% | 21% | $599.32 | $536.32 |
| 78° to 79° | 50% | 51% | 51% | $851.78 | $643.55 |
| 80° to 81° | 19% | 25% | 19% | $1,022.81 | $611.36 |
| 82° to 83° | 4% | 6% | 2% | $382.28 | $355.28 |
| 75° or below | 0% | 2% | 2% | $1,551.64 | $1,297.64 |
| 84° or above | 0% | 1% | 1% | $823.67 | $794.67 |

## What is the TMAX Forecast for Atlanta on May 4, 2026?

TMAX Forecast for KATL (May 4, 2026) | Not found in available research snippets [[^]](https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?fh=324&p=coltmpmax500&r=atl&rh=2026050106). |
GFS/NAM Model Data Availability | Pivotal Weather shows 20260503 00z runs for Atlanta with 2m temperature and column max temp parameters [[^]](https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?fh=324&p=coltmpmax500&r=atl&rh=2026050106)[[^]](https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?fh=0&m=nam4km&p=sfct_b-met&r=mideast&rh=2026050106) |
ECMWF Model Data Accessibility | Weather.us has ensemble max temperature heatmaps and meteograms for Atlanta, but specific 00z deterministic values are paywalled or not present [[^]](https://weather.us/forecast/4180439-atlanta/ensemble/euro-heatmap)[[^]](https://weather.us/forecast/4180439-atlanta/meteogram) |

**Specific maximum temperature forecasts could not be determined for KATL**

Specific maximum temperature forecasts could not be determined for KATL. The precise maximum temperature (TMAX) forecast numbers for the Hartsfield-Jackson Atlanta Intl Airport (KATL) station on May 4, 2026, from the final 00z runs of the GFS, ECMWF, and NAM models on May 3, 2026, could not be established from the available research. Consequently, a consensus forecast from these models cannot be determined without the specific TMAX data.

GFS and NAM models offer relevant data but lacked specific outputs. The GFS and NAM models presented relevant data for the Atlanta region on Pivotal Weather, showing GFS runs such as the 20260503 00z run, with available parameters including 2m temperature and column max temp [[^]](https://www.pivotalweather.com/**model**.php?fh=324&p=coltmpmax500&r=atl&rh=2026050106)[[^]](https://www.pivotalweather.com/**model**.php?dpdt=&fh=54&mc=&p=sn10_006h-imp&r=atl&rh=2026050112)[[^]](https://www.pivotalweather.com/**model**.php?fh=99&p=crossover&r=atl&rh=2026050112)[[^]](https://www.pivotalweather.com/**model**.php?fh=42&p=sfct-met&r=us_c&rh=2026050112). Similarly, the NAM **model** on Pivotal Weather featured a '2 m AGL Temperature (24 h max)' parameter, which is suitable for TMAX forecasting [[^]](https://www.pivotalweather.com/**model**.php?fh=0&m=nam4km&p=sfct_b-met&r=mideast&rh=2026050106)[[^]](https://www.pivotalweather.com/**model**.php?m=nam4km&p=sfctd_b-imp)[[^]](https://www.pivotalweather.com/**model**.php?m=nam4km&p=uh03_max). However, direct forecast numbers for the Hartsfield-Jackson Atlanta Intl Airport's specific gridpoint values were not extracted from these sources, and obtaining them would require manual inspection of interactive sites for forecasts approximately 24-48 hours out to May 4 [[^]](https://www.pivotalweather.com/**model**.php?fh=324&p=coltmpmax500&r=atl&rh=2026050106)[[^]](https://www.pivotalweather.com/**model**.php?fh=0&m=nam4km&p=sfct_b-met&r=mideast&rh=2026050106).

ECMWF **model** data was available but lacked specific TMAX values. For the ECMWF **model**, Weather.us provided ensemble max temperature heatmaps and meteograms for Atlanta, which are pertinent for maximum temperature forecasts [[^]](https://weather.us/forecast/4180439-atlanta/ensemble/euro-heatmap)[[^]](https://weather.us/forecast/4180439-atlanta/meteogram). Despite the availability of this information, specific deterministic 00z run values were either inaccessible due to paywall restrictions or not present within the provided research snippets. This made it impossible to extract the precise TMAX forecast for the target date of May 4, 2026, from this source [[^]](https://weather.us/forecast/4180439-atlanta/ensemble/euro-heatmap)[[^]](https://weather.us/forecast/4180439-atlanta/meteogram).

## What is Fulton County's Current Drought Status and Forecast?

Current Drought Status | D3 Extreme Drought (US Drought Monitor) [[^]](https://www.weather.gov/media/ffc/DGT/DGT_FFC_04162026.txt)[[^]](https://www.fox5atlanta.com/news/georgia-remains-drought-despite-recent-rainfall) |
PDSI for Fulton County | Not explicitly located [[^]](https://www.drought.gov/data-maps-tools/us-gridded-palmer-drought-severity-index-pdsi-gridmet) |
May 4, 2026 Atlanta Precipitation Chance | 47% [[^]](https://www.weathertab.com/d/05/united-states/georgia/atlanta/) |

**Fulton County, GA, is experiencing extreme drought conditions as classified by the US Drought Monitor**

Fulton County, GA, is experiencing extreme drought conditions as classified by the US Drought Monitor. The county is categorized under D3 Extreme Drought, a classification valid around April 16, 2026, and extending into late April [[^]](https://www.weather.gov/media/ffc/DGT/DGT_FFC_04162026.txt)[[^]](https://www.fox5atlanta.com/news/georgia-remains-drought-despite-recent-rainfall). This intensification of drought has affected **100%** of Georgia's population, falling under various D1-D4 drought categories across the state [[^]](https://www.weather.gov/media/ffc/DGT/DGT_FFC_04162026.txt)[[^]](https://www.facebook.com/fultoninfo/posts/as-of-april-27-2026-the-georgia-environmental-protection-division-epd-has-declar/1393102856187494/). However, an explicit numerical value for the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) specifically for Fulton County was not identified during the research [[^]](https://www.drought.gov/data-maps-tools/us-gridded-palmer-drought-severity-index-pdsi-gridmet).

Forecasted dew points for May 4, 2026, are currently unavailable for Fulton County. While a long-range forecast for Atlanta on that date indicates a high of 77 F, a low of 58 F, and a **47%** chance of precipitation, specific dew point temperatures were not detailed in the available information [[^]](https://www.weathertab.com/d/05/united-states/georgia/atlanta/). Similarly, historical dew point temperatures for May 4 under comparable drought conditions were not located, though drought conditions are generally associated with reduced humidity and lower dew points [[^]](https://www.weathertab.com/d/05/united-states/georgia/atlanta/).

## What is the Forecaster Confidence for Atlanta's May 4, 2026 Temperature?

May 4, 2026 AFD Status | Not found or publicly indexed yet [[^]](https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?issuedby=FFC&product=AFD&site=FFC)[[^]](https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202601041808-KFFC-FXUS62-AFDFFC-AAC)[[^]](https://tgftp.nws.noaa.gov/data/raw/fx/fxus62.kffc.afd.ffc.txt)[[^]](https://kamala.cod.edu/ga/latest.fxus62.KFFC.html)[[^]](https://www.daculaweather.com/emwin/adm/afd_ffc.htm) |
General Model Agreement | Limited agreement on shower strength and timing (April 27 AFD) [[^]](https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?issuedby=FFC&product=AFD&site=FFC) |
Prediction Market High Temp | 78-79F (39% odds for May 4, 2026) [[^]](https://polymarket.com/event/highest-temperature-in-atlanta-on-may-4-2026) |

**The official NWS Atlanta May 4, 2026, AFD is currently unavailable**

The official NWS Atlanta May 4, 2026, AFD is currently unavailable. The official National Weather Service (NWS) Atlanta Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) for the morning of May 4, 2026, has not been located through public searches, indicating it may not yet be issued or indexed [[^]](https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?issuedby=FFC&product=AFD&site=FFC)[[^]](https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202601041808-KFFC-FXUS62-AFDFFC-AAC)[[^]](https://tgftp.nws.noaa.gov/data/raw/fx/fxus62.kffc.afd.ffc.txt)[[^]](https://kamala.cod.edu/ga/latest.fxus62.KFFC.html)[[^]](https://www.daculaweather.com/emwin/adm/afd_ffc.htm). Therefore, it is currently not possible to assess forecaster **confidence** in numerical **model** guidance or to identify specific local factors contributing to uncertainty regarding the day's high temperature from this particular AFD.

Recent AFDs offer insights into general forecaster **confidence** and uncertainty. While the specific May 4, 2026 AFD is unavailable, insights from recent AFDs provide general perspectives on forecaster concerns. For example, an April 27 AFD highlighted 'limited agreement' among **model** guidance concerning shower strength and timing, indicating a degree of lower **confidence** [[^]](https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?issuedby=FFC&product=AFD&site=FFC). Furthermore, other recent AFDs, specifically from April 29, have identified the precise timing of cloud cover during peak heating as a key factor of uncertainty for daily high temperature predictions [[^]](https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?format=ci&glossary=1&issuedby=ffc&product=afd&site=ffc&version=1).

Current prediction **market** data indicates a specific high temperature range. Separately, current prediction **market** data points to a favored high temperature of 78-79F for Atlanta on May 4, 2026. This forecast carries a **39%** **probability** according to the **market** [[^]](https://polymarket.com/event/highest-temperature-in-atlanta-on-may-4-2026).

## What are GFS and ECMWF TMAX forecast biases for KATL in Spring 2026?

GFS Global 24-hr Air Temp RMSE | Approximately 3°C (cool bias for daytime maximums) [[^]](https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/mwre/139/5/2010mwr3423.1.xml) |
ECMWF Global TMAX Bias | Systematic underestimation compared to GHCN data (2017-2021) [[^]](https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2024Atmos..15...93L/abstract) |
ENSO Probability Spring 2026 | La Niña fading to neutral (75-91%) with El Niño watch late spring (61%) [[^]](https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_disc_jan2026/ensodisc.shtml)[[^]](https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/?enso_tab=enso-quicklook)[[^]](https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/)[[^]](https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml) |

**Specific model error data for KATL and early May is unavailable**

Specific **model** error data for KATL and early May is unavailable. Direct historical mean absolute error (MAE) or directional bias for GFS and ECMWF models regarding 24-hour TMAX forecasts at KATL for early May, particularly during the specific El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phase projected for Spring 2026, are not available in the provided research [[^]](https://www.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KATL.html)[[^]](https://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/users/verification/global/gfs/prod/atmos/long_term/monthly_yearly_stats). Therefore, a complete and direct answer for KATL under these precise conditions cannot be fully furnished.

GFS **model** forecasts generally exhibit specific temperature biases globally. Globally, the GFS 24-hour air temperature Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) is approximately 3°C, often demonstrating a cool bias for daytime maximums during the warm season [[^]](https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/mwre/139/5/2010mwr3423.1.xml). A study conducted in New York from 2018 to 2021 also observed a cold bias for GFS short-range temperatures below 25°C and a warm bias for temperatures exceeding 30°C [[^]](https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2024WtFor..39..369G/abstract). Furthermore, GFS MOS errors are known to display low-frequency biases that mirror ENSO patterns, which are inherited from the raw GFS **model** itself [[^]](https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015AMS....9565326F/abstract).

ECMWF shows TMAX underestimation, and ENSO forecasts predict neutrality. The ECMWF **model** has demonstrated a systematic underestimation of TMAX in its operational forecasts when compared to global GHCN data from 2017-2021 [[^]](https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2024Atmos..15...93L/abstract). Regarding the ENSO phase, projections for Spring 2026 indicate La Niña fading to a neutral state with a 75-**91%** **probability** for March-April-May 2026 [[^]](https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_disc_jan2026/ensodisc.shtml)[[^]](https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/?enso_tab=enso-quicklook)[[^]](https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/)[[^]](https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml). Additionally, an El Niño watch is in effect for late spring, specifically with a **61%** **probability** for May-June-July [[^]](https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_disc_jan2026/ensodisc.shtml)[[^]](https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/?enso_tab=enso-quicklook)[[^]](https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/)[[^]](https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml). Despite these general insights into **model** behavior and ENSO projections, specific MAE and bias data for KATL under the requested precise ENSO conditions for early May remain unavailable [[^]](https://www.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KATL.html)[[^]](https://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/users/verification/global/gfs/prod/atmos/long_term/monthly_yearly_stats).

## What are the May 4, 2026 solar, cloud, and wind forecasts?

Peak Solar Insolation Time | Not precisely specified (research indicates "Plenty of sun" [[^]](https://www.accuweather.com/en/us/atlanta/30303/may-weather/348181)[[^]](https://www.accuweather.com/en/us/north-atlanta/30319/may-weather/2153042), "Sunny" [[^]](https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=33.7483&lon=-84.3911)[[^]](https://www.aqi.in/weather/united-states/georgia/atlanta)[[^]](https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=33.76&lon=-84.43), or "Clear" [[^]](https://www.fox5atlanta.com/weather)) |
Morning Clouds Clearing Time | Not precisely specified (research indicates "Plenty of sun" [[^]](https://www.accuweather.com/en/us/atlanta/30303/may-weather/348181)[[^]](https://www.accuweather.com/en/us/north-atlanta/30319/may-weather/2153042), "Sunny" [[^]](https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=33.7483&lon=-84.3911)[[^]](https://www.aqi.in/weather/united-states/georgia/atlanta)[[^]](https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=33.76&lon=-84.43), or "Clear" [[^]](https://www.fox5atlanta.com/weather)) |
May 4, 2026 Wind Direction Shift | No shift to westerly or northwesterly direction (forecasted southwest/south wind) [[^]](https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=33.7483&lon=-84.3911)[[^]](https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=33.76&lon=-84.43) |

**Forecasts predict sunny conditions for May 4, 2026, but lack specific insolation details**

Forecasts predict sunny conditions for May 4, 2026, but lack specific insolation details. General forecasts indicate "Plenty of sun" [[^]](https://www.accuweather.com/en/us/atlanta/30303/may-weather/348181)[[^]](https://www.accuweather.com/en/us/north-atlanta/30319/may-weather/2153042), "Sunny" [[^]](https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=33.7483&lon=-84.3911)[[^]](https://www.aqi.in/weather/united-states/georgia/atlanta)[[^]](https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=33.76&lon=-84.43), or "Clear" conditions, with no rain expected between 9 AM and 7 PM [[^]](https://www.fox5atlanta.com/weather). However, the research does not provide a precise time for peak solar insolation or the clearing of any potential morning clouds. Furthermore, no HRRR **model** runs were referenced concerning these specific details.

No westerly or northwesterly wind shift is forecasted for May 4, 2026. The National Weather Service forecast for Atlanta on this date projects winds to begin calm, becoming southwest around 5 mph during the day, and then shifting to a south wind at approximately 5 mph for Monday night [[^]](https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=33.7483&lon=-84.3911)[[^]](https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=33.76&lon=-84.43). There is no indication of a wind shift to a westerly or northwesterly direction, which would be necessary to introduce downsloping or compressional heating in the afternoon. The research does not connect the forecasted wind patterns to such a heating event, and information regarding a high-pressure system from April 2026 [[^]](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YPFgmZtyuFc) is irrelevant to this specific event.

## What Could Change the Odds

**The primary catalyst for the "Highest temperature in Atlanta on May 4?" market will be the actual maximum temperature recorded in Atlanta on May 4, 2026.** Polymarket's current leading outcomes suggest a higher **probability** for temperatures in the 78–79°F range (**39%**), with 80–81°F as the next most likely at **24%** [[^]](https://polymarket.com/event/highest-temperature-in-atlanta-on-may-4-2026).

**The resolution of this market explicitly depends on the finalized highest temperature at the Hartsfield-Jackson International Airport Station (KATL) on 2026-05-04, as reported by Wunderground.** For historical context, the all-time record highest temperature for May 4 in Atlanta is 90°F, which occurred in 1955 [[^]](https://polymarket.com/event/highest-temperature-in-atlanta-on-may-4-2026).

## Key Dates & Catalysts

- **Strike Date:** May 05, 2026
- **Expiration:** May 11, 2026
- **Closes:** May 05, 2026

## Decision-Flipping Events

- The primary catalyst for the "Highest temperature in Atlanta on May 4?" **market** will be the actual maximum temperature recorded in Atlanta on May 4, 2026.
- Polymarket's current leading outcomes suggest a higher **probability** for temperatures in the 78–79°F range (**39%**), with 80–81°F as the next most likely at **24%** [^] .
- The resolution of this **market** explicitly depends on the finalized highest temperature at the Hartsfield-Jackson International Airport Station (KATL) on 2026-05-04, as reported by Wunderground.
- For historical context, the all-time record highest temperature for May 4 in Atlanta is 90°F, which occurred in 1955 [^] .

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## Historical Resolutions

**Historical Resolutions:** 20 markets in this series

**Outcomes:** 3 resolved YES, 17 resolved NO

**Recent resolutions:**

- KXHIGHTATL-26MAY02-T68: YES (May 03, 2026)
- KXHIGHTATL-26MAY02-T61: NO (May 03, 2026)
- KXHIGHTATL-26MAY02-B67.5: NO (May 03, 2026)
- KXHIGHTATL-26MAY02-B65.5: NO (May 03, 2026)
- KXHIGHTATL-26MAY02-B63.5: NO (May 03, 2026)

## Disclaimer

This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or trading advice.
Prediction markets involve risk of loss. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
We are not affiliated with Kalshi or any prediction market platform. Market data may be delayed or incomplete.

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**Freshness:** Analysis is generated periodically and may not reflect the latest developments. Verify critical information from primary sources.

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