# Will the world pass 2 degrees Celsius over pre-industrial levels before 2050? Before 2050 Updated: April 4, 2026 Category: Climate and Weather Tags: Climate change HTML: /markets/climate-and-weather/climate-change/will-the-world-pass-2-degrees-celsius-over-pre-industrial-levels-before-2050/ ## Short Answer **Key takeaway.** Both the **model** and the **market** expect the world to pass 2 degrees Celsius over pre-industrial levels before 2050, with no compelling evidence of mispricing. ## Key Claims (January 2026) **- - IEA identifies an 'emissions gap' increasing likely global temperature rise.** - Aerosol reductions are projected to unmask 0.23 °C warming by 2045. - Permafrost carbon feedback will significantly contribute to global warming by 2050. - The analysis **model** predicts an **82.1%** chance of exceeding 2C before 2050. ### Why This Matters (GEO) - AI agents extract claims, not arguments. - Improves citation probability in summaries and answer cards. - Enables fact stitching across multiple sources. ## Executive Verdict **Key takeaway.** **Model** sees **82.1%** **probability** vs 80c **market** price, implying a 1.2x payout multiple if correct. ### Who Wins and Why | Outcome | Market | Model | Why | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Before 2050 | 80.0% | 82.1% | Current greenhouse gas emission trajectories indicate a high likelihood of exceeding 2°C warming before 2050. | ## Model vs Market - Model Probability: 82.1% (Yes) - Market Probability: 80.0% (Yes) - Yes refers to: Before 2050 - Edge: +2.1pp - Expected Return: +2.7% - R-Score: 0.21 - Total Volume: $11,483 - 24h Volume: $64 - Open Interest: $5,081 - Expiration: January 1, 2050 ## Market Behavior & Price Dynamics This prediction market shows a stable and sideways trend, indicating a consistent belief that the world is likely to pass 2 degrees Celsius of warming before 2050. The price has remained within a narrow 7-point range, trading between a support level of 74% and a resistance level of 81%. The current price of 80% is near the top of this established channel and is very close to its starting price of 79%, reinforcing the lack of a clear directional trend. The chart does not display any significant price spikes or drops that would suggest a reaction to specific market-moving news or events. The trading volume of 1,319 total contracts suggests moderate but not intense market activity. The pattern of trading appears inconsistent, with periods of no volume, indicating that conviction, while high, is not being actively and continuously tested. The overall market sentiment reflected in this chart is one of high and unwavering conviction. The probability has consistently remained above 74%, suggesting that traders have long priced in a high likelihood of this outcome. The tight, sideways trading channel indicates that this consensus has been firmly established and has not been significantly challenged over the period observed. ## Contract Snapshot This market resolves to Yes if the annual global mean surface temperature anomaly reaches or exceeds +2.0°C above 1850-1900 pre-industrial levels in any calendar year before January 1, 2050. If this condition is not met by December 31, 2049, the market resolves to No. A Yes resolution requires at least two of the specified Source Agencies (NASA GISS, NCEI, Berkeley Earth, and HadCRUT) to report the 2.0°C threshold has been met. ## Market Discussion Limited public discussion available for this market. ## Market Data | Contract | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | Last Price | Volume | Open Interest | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Before 2050 | 76% | 81% | 80% | $11,483 | $5,081 | ## What Temperature Increases Do IEA and IPCC Scenarios Project? IEA Stated Policies Scenario Temperature Increase | 2.7 °C by 2100 [[^]](https://www.iea.org/reports/world-energy-outlook-2024/executive-summary) | IEA Announced Pledges Scenario Temperature Increase | 1.7 °C by 2100 [[^]](https://www.iea.org/reports/world-energy-outlook-2024/executive-summary) | IPCC SSP3-7.0 Pathway Temperature Increase | 3.6 °C by 2100 [[^]](https://www.iea.org/reports/world-energy-outlook-2021/scenario-trajectories-and-temperature-outcomes) | **The International Energy Agency (IEA) defines an 'emissions gap' between implemented policies and formal pledges** The International Energy Agency (IEA) defines an 'emissions gap' between implemented policies and formal pledges. This gap represents the difference in emissions if governments adhere to current policies versus fully meeting their climate pledges [[^]](https://www.iea.org/reports/world-energy-outlook-2024/executive-summary). The IEA's Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS), reflecting current implemented policies, projects a global average temperature increase of approximately 2.7 °C by 2100 [[^]](https://www.iea.org/reports/world-energy-outlook-2024/executive-summary). In contrast, the Announced Pledges Scenario (APS), which assumes the full implementation of all national climate pledges, projects a more limited global average temperature increase of about 1.7 °C by 2100 [[^]](https://www.iea.org/reports/world-energy-outlook-2024/executive-summary). Current policies align with a substantial global warming pathway. The emissions trajectory under the IEA's STEPS is largely consistent with the IPCC's SSP2-4.5 pathway [[^]](https://www.iea.org/reports/world-energy-outlook-2021/scenario-trajectories-and-temperature-outcomes). This 'middle of the road' IPCC scenario also leads to approximately 2.7 °C of global warming by 2100, indicating that present policies are set on a course for significant temperature increases [[^]](https://www.iea.org/reports/world-energy-outlook-2021/scenario-trajectories-and-temperature-outcomes). For comparison, the more pessimistic IPCC SSP3-7.0 pathway projects a substantially higher warming of around 3.6 °C by 2100 [[^]](https://www.iea.org/reports/world-energy-outlook-2021/scenario-trajectories-and-temperature-outcomes). Bridging the emissions gap requires substantial reductions from major economies. The divergence between the IEA's STEPS and APS scenarios critically highlights the additional emissions reductions necessary to fulfill countries' formal climate pledges [[^]](https://www.iea.org/reports/world-energy-outlook-2024/executive-summary). Achieving the emissions levels outlined in the APS would imply a significant decrease in emissions, moving the world closer to a trajectory aligned with the 1.5 °C global warming goal. Fulfilling these commitments is therefore crucial to avoid the higher temperature increases projected under current policies or more pessimistic IPCC pathways [[^]](https://www.iea.org/reports/world-energy-outlook-2024/executive-summary). ## What Global Warming Is Unmasked by SO2 and Aerosol Declines? Total Unmasked Warming | 0.23 °C by 2045 (peer-reviewed papers) [[^]](https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/25/4443/2025/) | Warming from Shipping SO2 Reductions | 0.05 °C by 2050 [[^]](https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/25/4443/2025/) | Warming from East Asian Aerosol Declines | 0.18 °C by 2040–2049 [[^]](https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-025-02527-3) | **Global warming by 0.23 °C is projected from aerosol reductions** Global warming by 0.23 °C is projected from aerosol reductions. The global mean surface temperature increase unmasked by 2045, attributable to the phase-out of SO2 emissions from global shipping and industrial air quality policies in Asia, is centrally estimated at approximately 0.23 °C. This projection integrates an estimated 0.05 °C from shipping regulations by 2050 [[^]](https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/25/4443/2025/) and approximately 0.18 °C from East Asian aerosol declines by 2040–2049 [[^]](https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-025-02527-3). Shipping regulations and East Asian policies drive this temperature increase. The full implementation of the IMO 2020 low-sulfur fuel regulation in global shipping is estimated to contribute an additional warming of about 0.05 °C to the global mean surface temperature between 2020 and 2050 [[^]](https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/25/4443/2025/). Concurrently, rapid declines in anthropogenic aerosol emissions from East Asia have significantly contributed to recent global warming, with this effect projected to reach approximately 0.18 °C by the 2040–2049 period [[^]](https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-025-02527-3). Past aerosol reductions also unmasked significant global warming. The IPCC AR6 further notes that global warming has been partly unmasked by large reductions in anthropogenic aerosol emissions globally, including in Asia since 2010, contributing 0.1 to 0.2 °C over the period 1970–2019 [[^]](https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGI_Chapter_06.pdf). ## What is Permafrost Carbon Feedback's Global Warming Impact by 2050 and 2100? PCF Additional Warming by 2100 | 0.13–0.27 °C [[^]](https://esd.copernicus.org/articles/16/1809/2025/) | Permafrost Carbon Emissions by 2050 | 10–50 Pg C (up to 100 Pg C) [[^]](https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGI_Chapter05.pdf) | CMIP6 ESMs Carbon Release by 2100 | 30–60 Pg C (under SSP5-8.5) [[^]](https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGI_Chapter05.pdf) | **Permafrost carbon feedback will significantly contribute to future global warming** Permafrost carbon feedback will significantly contribute to future global warming. Leading cryosphere research bodies estimate that the permafrost carbon feedback (PCF) could add an additional 0.13–0.27 °C to global warming by 2100, relative to a baseline without permafrost carbon emissions [[^]](https://esd.copernicus.org/articles/16/1809/2025/). The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) synthesizes these findings, noting a potential 0.04–0.17 °C warming by 2100 under high emissions scenarios [[^]](https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGI_Chapter05.pdf). For the shorter term, by 2050, cumulative net permafrost carbon emissions are projected to be between 10 and 50 petagrams of carbon (Pg C), with some studies projecting up to 100 Pg C under high emissions scenarios [[^]](https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGI_Chapter05.pdf). Current climate models often underestimate permafrost carbon feedback. Many CMIP6 Earth system models (ESMs) include simplified representations of permafrost processes or lack explicit permafrost carbon modules, which leads to an underestimation of the PCF's contribution to global warming [[^]](https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGI_Chapter05.pdf). Median CMIP6 ESMs project a cumulative net permafrost carbon release of 30–60 Pg C by 2100 under a very high emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5) and 10–30 Pg C by 2100 under a low emissions scenario (SSP1-2.6) [[^]](https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGI_Chapter05.pdf). These projections are notably lower than estimates from dedicated permafrost process-based models, which project cumulative emissions up to 400 Pg C by 2100, indicating a significant discrepancy in the representation of this critical feedback loop [[^]](https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGI_Chapter05.pdf). ## When Will Solar-Plus-Storage Outcompete Coal in India and Indonesia? Projection Year | 2027 [[^]](https://assets.bbhub.io/professional/sites/24/New-Energy-Outlook-2025-Executive-summary-external-14-04-2025-1.pdf) | Economic Tipping Point | Solar PV plus 4-hour battery storage LCOE falls below marginal cost of operating existing coal-fired power plants [[^]](https://assets.bbhub.io/professional/sites/24/New-Energy-Outlook-2025-Executive-summary-external-14-04-2025-1.pdf) | Key Regions Affected | India and Indonesia [[^]](https://assets.bbhub.io/professional/sites/24/New-Energy-Outlook-2025-Executive-summary-external-14-04-2025-1.pdf) | **By 2027, solar-plus-storage will outcompete coal operationally** By 2027, solar-plus-storage will outcompete coal operationally. Specifically, the levelized cost of energy (LCOE) for solar PV combined with 4-hour battery storage is projected to fall below the marginal cost of operating existing coal-fired power plants in India and Indonesia. This economic milestone, identified by BloombergNEF's analysis, indicates a potential acceleration in the retirement of coal infrastructure in these nations [[^]](https://assets.bbhub.io/professional/sites/24/New-Energy-Outlook-2025-Executive-summary-external-14-04-2025-1.pdf). Falling renewable and battery costs drive this energy transition. These projections are supported by the ongoing decline in the costs of renewable energy technology and battery storage. Battery storage costs have reached record lows [[^]](https://about.bnef.com/insights/clean-energy/battery-storage-costs-hit-record-lows-as-costs-of-other-clean-power-technologies-increased-bloombergnef/), and solar LCOE is anticipated to maintain its downward trajectory [[^]](https://www.pv-magazine-india.com/2026/02/23/solar-lcoe-to-fall-30-by-2035-says-bloombergnef/). This continuous reduction in costs is a pivotal element in the broader energy transition, making new clean energy solutions more economically viable than legacy fossil fuel assets [[^]](https://assets.bbhub.io/professional/sites/24/BNEF-IESR-Scaling-Up-Solar-in-Indonesia_FINAL.pdf). ## What is 'super' El Niño probability (2025-2035) and temperature impact? Super El Niño probability (2025-2035) | Not directly available in decadal forecasts [[^]](https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/gpc-outlooks/el-nino-la-nina) | Temperature increase from strong El Niño | 0.1 to 0.2 degrees Celsius [[^]](https://www.euronews.com/2026/03/31/a-super-el-nino-inside-the-weather-phenomenon-that-could-send-temperatures-soaring) | Super El Niño ONI anomaly definition | >2.0 degrees Celsius above average [[^]](https://m.economictimes.com/news/international/us/what-is-a-super-el-nino-how-will-it-influence-the-global-weather-intensity-and-impact/articleshow/129933194.cms) | **Decadal forecasts do not provide specific 'super' El Niño probabilities** Decadal forecasts do not provide specific 'super' El Niño probabilities. Decadal forecasts from organizations like the UK Met Office and NOAA generally focus on global and regional temperature and precipitation anomalies over 5- to 10-year periods, accounting for natural variability and anthropogenic forcing [[^]](https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/gpc-outlooks/el-nino-la-nina). However, the available sources do not offer a specific modeled **probability** for a 'super' El Niño event, defined as an Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) anomaly exceeding 2.0°C, occurring between 2025 and 2035 [[^]](https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/gpc-outlooks/el-nino-la-nina). NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC), for example, typically provides shorter-term ENSO outlooks rather than decadal probabilities for extreme ONI thresholds [[^]](https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_disc_dec2025/ensodisc.shtml). 'Super' El Niño events significantly increase global average temperatures temporarily. Strong El Niño events are known to temporarily increase global average temperatures by 0.1 to 0.2 degrees Celsius in their peak year [[^]](https://www.euronews.com/2026/03/31/a-super-el-nino-inside-the-weather-phenomenon-that-could-send-temperatures-soaring). A 'super' El Niño specifically indicates an event where sea surface temperatures in the Niño 3.4 region are more than 2.0 degrees Celsius above average [[^]](https://m.economictimes.com/news/international/us/what-is-a-super-el-nino-how-will-it-influence-the-global-weather-intensity-and-impact/articleshow/129933194.cms). These events cause an additional temporary warming spike by releasing heat from the Pacific Ocean into the atmosphere, contributing to global temperatures on top of the long-term warming trend driven by climate change [[^]](http://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-025-02971-1). The strong 2023-24 El Niño notably contributed to record global mean surface temperatures, pushing them closer to the 1.5°C threshold above pre-industrial levels [[^]](http://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-025-02971-1). ## What Could Change the Odds **Key takeaway.** Catalyst analysis unavailable. ## Key Dates & Catalysts - **Expiration:** January 08, 2050 - **Closes:** January 01, 2050 ## Decision-Flipping Events - Catalyst analysis unavailable. ## Related Research Reports - [Will there be an at least 8.0 magnitude earthquake in California before 2035?](/markets/climate-and-weather/will-there-be-an-at-least-8-0-magnitude-earthquake-in-california-before-2035/) - [Will a supervolcano erupt before 2050?](/markets/climate-and-weather/will-a-supervolcano-erupt-before-2050/) - [Highest temperature in NYC on Apr 4, 2026?](/markets/climate-and-weather/daily-temperature/highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-apr-4-2026/) - [What will be the largest source of global primary energy consumption in 2030?](/markets/climate-and-weather/what-will-be-the-largest-source-of-global-primary-energy-consumption-in-2030/) ## Historical Resolutions No historical resolution data available for this series. ## Disclaimer This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or trading advice. Prediction markets involve risk of loss. Past performance does not guarantee future results. We are not affiliated with Kalshi or any prediction market platform. Market data may be delayed or incomplete. ### Data Sources & Model Transparency **Data Sources:** Octagon Deep Research aggregates information from multiple sources including news, filings, and market data. **Freshness:** Analysis is generated periodically and may not reflect the latest developments. Verify critical information from primary sources.