# Will 2026 be the hottest year ever?

In 2026

Updated: May 6, 2026

Category: Climate and Weather

Tags: Climate change

HTML: /markets/climate-and-weather/climate-change/will-2026-be-the-hottest-year-ever/

## Short Answer

**Key takeaway.** Both the **model** and the **market** expect 'Hottest' as the most likely outcome for 2026, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.

## Key Claims (January 2026)

**- - A strong El Niño in late 2026 is required for a new record.** - Mid-2026 developing El Niño conditions contrast with 2024's decline.
- NASA GISTEMP v4 is the primary dataset for 2026 global temperature.
- Agencies like the Met Office forecast 2026 as likely second-warmest.
- A major volcanic eruption could prevent 2026 from setting a record.

### Why This Matters (GEO)

- AI agents extract claims, not arguments.
- Improves citation probability in summaries and answer cards.
- Enables fact stitching across multiple sources.

## Executive Verdict

**Key takeaway.** At 30c, the **market** (**30.2%**) prices higher than the **22.1%** **model** estimate, suggesting overvaluation despite 'second-warmest' forecasts.

### Who Wins and Why

| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Hottest | 30.2% | 22.1% | The accelerating pace of global warming makes record-breaking temperatures increasingly probable. |

## Model vs Market

- Model Probability: 22.1% (Yes)
- Market Probability: 30.2% (Yes)
- Yes refers to: Hottest
- Edge: -8.1pp
- Expected Return: -26.7%
- R-Score: -0.81
- Total Volume: $109,883.13
- 24h Volume: $7,329.03
- Open Interest: $55,947.21

- Expiration: January 1, 2027

## Market Behavior & Price Dynamics

This prediction market has exhibited a sideways trading pattern, contained within a narrow range between approximately 29% and 34%. The price started at 29.1% and currently sits at 30.2%, indicating very little net change over the period. The most significant movement was a price spike to a high of 33.6% around April 29th. This brief surge in perceived probability directly corresponds with the timing of a blog post by scientist James Hansen, who explicitly inferred that 2026 would likely be the warmest year on record. Following this peak, the price has since retreated, suggesting the market's initial bullish reaction was not sustained.

The total volume of over 14,500 contracts indicates significant initial interest, but the recent sample data points show very low to zero volume, suggesting a current lack of conviction or a wait-and-see approach from traders. The 29% level appears to be acting as a support floor, while the peak near 34% has established a clear resistance ceiling. Overall, the market sentiment, reflected by the current price of 30.2%, is cautiously pessimistic about 2026 setting a new temperature record. This probability aligns more closely with the nuanced forecasts from organizations like Carbon Brief (19% chance) and the Met Office, rather than the more definitive prediction from Hansen. The price action suggests that while traders reacted to Hansen's forecast, the broader consensus from other climate organizations is keeping the probability from rising further.

## Contract Snapshot

The market resolves to "Yes" if the unsmoothed Land-Ocean Temperature Index for 2026, reported by NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS), is above both the 2025 value and 1.28 degrees Celsius; otherwise, it resolves to "No." The market closes on December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. It will expire at the sooner of 10:00 AM ET following the release of the 2026 data or 10:00 AM ET on April 1, 2027, with the outcome verified directly from NASA GISS data.

## Market Discussion

The market currently leans against 2026 being the hottest year ever, with a 69.6% chance for "No." Arguments for "Yes" primarily cite the potential for a strong and rapidly intensifying El Niño event, alongside the observed long-term trend of consecutive record-breaking warm years. Conversely, "No" proponents acknowledge 2026 will likely be one of the hottest on record but express doubt that an El Niño, if it returns, will be sufficient to surpass previous records and become *the* hottest.

## Market Data

| Contract | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | Last Price | Volume | Open Interest |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Hottest | 30.4% | 30.5% | 30.2% | $109,883.13 | $55,947.21 |

## What specific El Niño strength and timing scenarios for late 2026 are required to push the year's average temperature past the 2024 record?

Peak Niño3.4 Anomaly for Record | around 2.7°C [[^]](https://www.theclimatebrink.com/p/higher-warming-predictions-for-2026) |
Global Temperature Response Lag | approximately three months [[^]](https://www.carbonbrief.org/state-of-the-climate-strong-el-nino-puts-2026-on-track-for-second-warmest-year/) |
Chance of 2026 Surpassing 2024 Record | about 19% [[^]](https://www.carbonbrief.org/state-of-the-climate-strong-el-nino-puts-2026-on-track-for-second-warmest-year/) |

**A strong El Niño in late 2026 could set a new record**

A strong El Niño in late 2026 could set a new record. To push the 2026 calendar-year average temperature past the 2024 warmest-year record, a strong, potentially super, El Niño is required [[^]](https://www.carbonbrief.org/state-of-the-climate-strong-el-nino-puts-2026-on-track-for-second-warmest-year/). This specific scenario involves the Niño3.4 peak occurring in the latter part of 2026, with the maximum global surface temperature response lagging these peak conditions by approximately three months [[^]](https://www.carbonbrief.org/state-of-the-climate-strong-el-nino-puts-2026-on-track-for-second-warmest-year/).

A super-El Niño peaking late is critical for a 2026 record. The "upper end" strength for such an outcome is a super-El Niño-like event, characterized by a multi-**model** median projection of a Niño3.4 peak anomaly around 2.7°C [[^]](https://www.theclimatebrink.com/p/higher-warming-predictions-for-2026). This event would need to develop in the latter part of 2026, as El Niño conditions typically peak towards the end of the year, with their maximum influence usually felt between November and February [[^]](https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/blog/2026/met-office-what-is-el-nino-and-will-we-see-one-this-year). Consequently, the strongest conditions would need to manifest late enough in 2026 to significantly impact the October to December portion of the annual mean, consistent with the approximate three-month temperature response lag [[^]](https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/blog/2026/met-office-what-is-el-nino-and-will-we-see-one-this-year)[[^]](https://www.carbonbrief.org/state-of-the-climate-strong-el-nino-puts-2026-on-track-for-second-warmest-year/).

While challenging, this scenario has a measurable chance and carries future implications. One synthesis indicates that while this scenario is possible, it is not considered the baseline [[^]](https://www.carbonbrief.org/state-of-the-climate-strong-el-nino-puts-2026-on-track-for-second-warmest-year/). There is approximately a **19%** chance of 2026 surpassing 2024 as the warmest year [[^]](https://www.carbonbrief.org/state-of-the-climate-strong-el-nino-puts-2026-on-track-for-second-warmest-year/). Furthermore, this specific strength and timing scenario for late 2026 would also have implications for 2027 being an extremely warm year [[^]](https://www.theclimatebrink.com/p/higher-warming-predictions-for-2026).

## How do the developing ENSO conditions and sea surface temperature anomalies in mid-2026 compare to the same period in 2024?

Probability of El Niño (May-July 2026) | 61-62% [[^]](https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf)[[^]](https://wmo.int/media/news/wmo-likelihood-increases-of-el-nino)[[^]](https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml)[[^]](https://bkobog.substack.com/p/executive-summary-2026-global-weather) |
Niño 3.4 SST Anomaly (May 2026) | +0.9°C [[^]](https://www.reddit.com/r/climatechange/comments/1t4fb5y/ni%C3%B1o_34_just_reached_09c_early_el_ni%C3%B1o_signal_but/) |
2026 Global Mean Surface Temperature | 1.44  0.09 °C above pre-industrial levels [[^]](https://climatedata.ca/news/2026-likely-to-be-among-the-four-hottest-years-on-record/) |

**Mid-2026 shows developing El Niño conditions, contrasting with 2024's decline**

Mid-2026 shows developing El Niño conditions, contrasting with 2024's decline. As of May 2026, ENSO-neutral conditions are present, with a high **probability** (61-**62%**) of transitioning to an El Niño event between May and July 2026, which is then expected to persist through the end of the year [[^]](https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf)[[^]](https://wmo.int/media/news/wmo-likelihood-increases-of-el-nino)[[^]](https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml)[[^]](https://bkobog.substack.com/p/executive-summary-2026-global-weather). Some forecasts even indicate a 1-in-4 chance of a "super El Niño" by year-end, influenced by an unusual annular warming pattern in the tropical Pacific [[^]](https://bkobog.substack.com/p/executive-summary-2026-global-weather)[[^]](https://www.eurekalert.org/news-releases/1125224). Early signs of this development include the Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomaly already reaching +0.9°C, signaling entry into El Niño territory, and a powerful subsurface oceanic Kelvin wave nearly 8°C above normal contributing to rapid intensification [[^]](https://bkobog.substack.com/p/executive-summary-2026-global-weather)[[^]](https://www.reddit.com/r/climatechange/comments/1t4fb5y/ni%C3%B1o_34_just_reached_09c_early_el_ni%C3%B1o_signal_but/). In contrast, mid-2024 experienced a diminishing El Niño event that transitioned to ENSO-neutral conditions, with increasing odds of a La Niña developing [[^]](https://www.weather.gov/media/abq/Briefings/2024SpringOutlook.pdf).

Global temperatures in 2026 are expected to be high, but likely not record-breaking. Global land and sea temperatures are widely forecast to be above normal for 2026 [[^]](https://wmo.int/media/news/wmo-likelihood-increases-of-el-nino)[[^]](https://bkobog.substack.com/p/executive-summary-2026-global-weather), with Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) predicting a global mean surface temperature of 1.44 ± 0.09 °C above pre-industrial levels [[^]](https://climatedata.ca/news/2026-likely-to-be-among-the-four-hottest-years-on-record/). While 2026 is anticipated to be among the four hottest years on record, many climate outlooks suggest a low **probability** of it surpassing the 2024 record, which was the hottest ever recorded [[^]](https://climatedata.ca/news/2026-likely-to-be-among-the-four-hottest-years-on-record/)[[^]](https://www.theclimatebrink.com/p/my-2026-and-2027-global-temperature)[[^]](https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2025/dec/18/met-office-2026-will-bring-heat-more-than-14c-above-preindustrial-levels)[[^]](https://www.reddit.com/r/climatechange/comments/1t02e5c/1_in_5_chance_2026_will_be_the_new_warmest_year/)[[^]](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ptVJ3ZTQIJc). Many predictions suggest that the full warming impact of a late-2026 El Niño might be more pronounced in 2027, potentially making it a more likely candidate for a new record hottest year than 2026 [[^]](https://climatedata.ca/news/2026-likely-to-be-among-the-four-hottest-years-on-record/)[[^]](https://www.theclimatebrink.com/p/my-2026-and-2027-global-temperature)[[^]](https://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailings/2025/GlobalTemperaturePrediction2025.12.18.pdf)[[^]](https://www.reddit.com/r/climatechange/comments/1t02e5c/1_in_5_chance_2026_will_be_the_new_warmest_year/).

## Which primary global temperature datasets, such as GISTEMP and HadCRUT, will be the key arbiters for the 2026 record, and what are their historical differences?

Primary Resolution Data Source (2026 Prediction Market) | NASA GISTEMP [[^]](https://www.polymarket.com/event/where-will-2026-rank-among-the-hottest-years-on-record/will-2026-be-the-fourth-hottest-year-on-record) |
GISTEMP v4 Data Sources | NOAA GHCN v4 (land) and ERSST v5 (ocean) [[^]](https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/)[[^]](https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/index_v4.html) |
HadCRUT5 Components | CRUTEM5 (land) and HadSST4 (sea-surface) [[^]](http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcrut5/)[[^]](http://climatedataguide.ucar.edu/climate-data/global-land-ocean-surface-temperature-data-hadcrut5) |

**NASA GISTEMP is the primary dataset for 2026 global temperature predictions**

NASA GISTEMP is the primary dataset for 2026 global temperature predictions. NASA GISTEMP v4 provides an estimate of global surface temperature change, using data from NOAA GHCN v4 stations for land areas and ERSST v5 for sea surface temperatures [[^]](https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/)[[^]](https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/index_v4.html). For the 2026 prediction **market**, GISTEMP's Land-Ocean Temperature Index table values are explicitly designated as the primary data source for resolution [[^]](https://www.polymarket.com/event/where-will-2026-rank-among-the-hottest-years-on-record/will-2026-be-the-fourth-hottest-year-on-record).

HadCRUT5 is another significant global temperature dataset with unique features. This gridded dataset compiles global historical surface temperature anomalies by combining CRUTEM5 for land surface air temperatures and HadSST4 for sea-surface temperatures [[^]](http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcrut5/)[[^]](http://climatedataguide.ucar.edu/climate-data/global-land-ocean-surface-temperature-data-hadcrut5). HadCRUT5 is available in a non-infilled version, which contains coverage gaps, and an infilled "analysis" version. The infilled version employs a statistical approach to extend coverage in data-sparse regions and includes an ensemble of 200 realizations to quantify uncertainty [[^]](http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcrut5/)[[^]](http://climatedataguide.ucar.edu/climate-data/global-land-ocean-surface-temperature-data-hadcrut5)[[^]](https://hadleyserver.metoffice.gov.uk/hadcrut5/data/HadCRUT.5.1.0.0/download.html)[[^]](http://catalogue.ceda.ac.uk/uuid/b9698c5ecf754b1d981728c37d3a9f02/)[[^]](https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcrut5/HadCRUT5_accepted.pdf).

Different data handling methods can cause shifts in temperature rankings. While the HadCRUT5 analysis version shows very close agreement with other estimates, such as NASA GISTEMP and Berkeley Earth, variations in how data gaps are addressed and uncertainty is treated can lead to differences in absolute rankings or recent trends [[^]](https://climatedataguide.ucar.edu/climate-data/global-land-ocean-surface-temperature-data-hadcrut5?qt-climatedatasetmaintabs=0). This inherent variability is why multiple datasets are often considered when making claims about temperature records, though NASA GISTEMP remains the designated primary source for the 2026 **market** [[^]](https://climatedataguide.ucar.edu/climate-data/global-land-ocean-surface-temperature-data-hadcrut5?qt-climatedatasetmaintabs=0)[[^]](https://www.polymarket.com/event/where-will-2026-rank-among-the-hottest-years-on-record/will-2026-be-the-fourth-hottest-year-on-record).

## What specific model uncertainties lead agencies like the Met Office and WMO to forecast 2026 as likely 'second-warmest' rather than definitively the warmest?

Met Office 2026 Forecast Mean | 1.46°C above 1850–1900 baseline (Met Office [[^]](https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/news-and-media/media-centre/weather-and-climate-news/2025/2026-outlook-likely-another-year-above-1.4c)) |
Met Office 2026 Forecast Range | 1.34°C–1.58°C (Met Office [[^]](https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/news-and-media/media-centre/weather-and-climate-news/2025/2026-outlook-likely-another-year-above-1.4c)) |
WMO 2024 Confirmed Temperature | About 1.55°C (WMO [[^]](https://wmo.int/news/media-centre/wmo-confirms-2024-warmest-year-record-about-155degc-above-pre-industrial-level)) |

**Temperature range overlap makes 2026's warmest year status uncertain**

Temperature range overlap makes 2026's warmest year status uncertain. Agencies like the Met Office and WMO forecast 2026 as likely the 'second-warmest' rather than definitively the warmest, primarily due to the overlap between 2026's projected temperature range and 2024's confirmed temperature, alongside the probabilistic nature of El Niño forecasts [[^]](https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/news-and-media/media-centre/weather-and-climate-news/2025/2026-outlook-likely-another-year-above-1.4c)[[^]](https://wmo.int/news/media-centre/wmo-confirms-2024-warmest-year-record-about-155degc-above-pre-industrial-level)[[^]](http://public.wmo.int/resources/publication-series/el-ninola-nina-updates/el-ninola-nina-update-february-2026)[[^]](https://wmo.int/media/news/wmo-likelihood-increases-of-el-nino)[[^]](https://wmo.int/media/update/global-seasonal-climate-update-may-june-july-2026)[[^]](https://www.newscientist.com/article/2525229-2026-will-be-the-hottest-year-on-record-leading-scientist-predicts/). The Met Office projects 2026 to be 1.46°C above the 1850–1900 baseline, with a range of 1.34°C–1.58°C [[^]](https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/news-and-media/media-centre/weather-and-climate-news/2025/2026-outlook-likely-another-year-above-1.4c). This range significantly overlaps with 2024's confirmed temperature of approximately 1.55°C, as reported by the WMO [[^]](https://wmo.int/news/media-centre/wmo-confirms-2024-warmest-year-record-about-155degc-above-pre-industrial-level), preventing a definitive assertion that 2026 will surpass 2024 as the warmest year [[^]](https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/news-and-media/media-centre/weather-and-climate-news/2025/2026-outlook-likely-another-year-above-1.4c)[[^]](https://wmo.int/news/media-centre/wmo-confirms-2024-warmest-year-record-about-155degc-above-pre-industrial-level).

El Niño forecast uncertainty contributes to 2026's probabilistic temperature ranking. Further uncertainty stems from the evolving nature of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) [[^]](http://public.wmo.int/resources/publication-series/el-ninola-nina-updates/el-ninola-nina-update-february-2026)[[^]](https://wmo.int/media/news/wmo-likelihood-increases-of-el-nino). The WMO's February 2026 ENSO assessment indicated ENSO-neutral conditions as most likely through March–May (around **60%**), with a rising chance of El Niño by May–July (around **40%**), specifically noting the "spring predictability barrier" that reduces certainty [[^]](http://public.wmo.int/resources/publication-series/el-ninola-nina-updates/el-ninola-nina-update-february-2026)[[^]](https://wmo.int/media/news/wmo-likelihood-increases-of-el-nino). Although an April 2026 update from the WMO suggests models are strongly aligned for an El Niño onset in May–July, potentially as a strong event, this remains a likelihood forecast, meaning 2026's global-mean temperature ranking is probabilistic rather than guaranteed [[^]](https://wmo.int/media/news/wmo-likelihood-increases-of-el-nino)[[^]](https://wmo.int/media/update/global-seasonal-climate-update-may-june-july-2026). This inherent uncertainty allows for a meaningful **probability** that 2024 could remain the record-holder, even if 2026 is widely expected to be among the top warmest years [[^]](https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/news-and-media/media-centre/weather-and-climate-news/2025/2026-outlook-likely-another-year-above-1.4c)[[^]](https://www.newscientist.com/article/2525229-2026-will-be-the-hottest-year-on-record-leading-scientist-predicts/).

## Beyond ENSO, what other major climate phenomena, such as a major volcanic eruption in 2026, could prevent 2026 from setting a new temperature record?

Implied Probability of No Major VEI>=6 Eruption in 2026 | 88.5% [[^]](https://polymarket.com/event/major-volcano-eruption-vei-6-in-2026) |
Mount Ruang Eruption Altitude | Approximately 25 km [[^]](https://earth.esa.int/eogateway/success-story/earthcare-reveals-global-impact-of-mount-ruang-eruption) |
Indian Ocean Dipole Forecast (June/July 2026) | Exceeding +0.5°C [[^]](https://wmo.int/media/update/global-seasonal-climate-update-may-june-july-2026) |

**Major climate phenomena beyond ENSO could prevent a temperature record**

Major climate phenomena beyond ENSO could prevent a temperature record. Beyond the influence of ENSO, significant climate events such as large explosive volcanic eruptions and shifts in other ocean-atmosphere variability, including the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), hold the potential to directly suppress global temperatures or alter established temperature rankings [[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volcanic_winter).

Large volcanic eruptions can significantly cool global temperatures. These eruptions contribute to surface cooling by injecting sulfur dioxide (SO2) into the stratosphere, where it forms sulfate aerosols that reflect solar radiation, potentially leading to a multi-year "volcanic winter" [[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volcanic_winter). While a major eruption classified as Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) >=6 in 2026 is considered a low-**probability** event, with a **market** reporting an **88.5%** implied **probability** of no such eruption, it remains a possibility [[^]](https://polymarket.com/event/major-volcano-eruption-vei-6-in-2026). For instance, the 2024 Mount Ruang eruption launched material approximately 25 km high and doubled stratospheric aerosol levels, with these sulfate particles expected to spread globally [[^]](https://earth.esa.int/eogateway/success-story/earthcare-reveals-global-impact-of-mount-ruang-eruption).

Ocean-atmosphere variability, like IOD, impacts global temperatures. Even with ENSO as the primary driver, co-occurring ocean-atmosphere variability can significantly influence temperature rankings [[^]](https://wmo.int/media/update/global-seasonal-climate-update-may-june-july-2026). The World Meteorological Organization's (WMO) May–July 2026 update forecasts a shift in the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) towards positive values, potentially exceeding +0.5°C by June/July 2026, which coincides with rapid El Niño intensification [[^]](https://wmo.int/media/update/global-seasonal-climate-update-may-june-july-2026). Earlier WMO reports for March–May 2026 also noted ENSO-neutral transition dynamics alongside a negative-to-weaken transition for IOD, underscoring the potential for non-ENSO ocean modes to persist alongside ENSO changes throughout 2026 [[^]](http://public.wmo.int/media/update/global-seasonal-climate-update-march-april-may-2026).

## What Could Change the Odds

**Forecasts for 2026's global temperature ranking vary.** Hansen claims 2026 will be the warmest year in the instrumental record, estimating a margin wide enough to break the 2024 record, though this depends on many remaining months being substantially warmer [[^]](https://jimehansen.substack.com/p/2026-on-track-for-warmest-year). Carbon Brief forecasts 2026 as the second-warmest year on record, with a **19%** chance to surpass 2024 as the warmest year, and says a strong El Niño later in 2026 would raise the chance that 2027 is hottest instead [[^]](https://www.carbonbrief.org/state-of-the-climate-strong-el-nino-puts-2026-on-track-for-second-warmest-year/). The Met Office’s 2026 outlook indicates a central global average temperature of 1.46°C above pre-industrial levels, with a forecast range of 1.34°C–1.58°C; the Met Office says 2026 is likely to be one of the four warmest years and that 2024’s 1.55°C remains the current warmest-year reference [[^]](https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/news-and-media/media-centre/weather-and-climate-news/2025/2026-outlook-likely-another-year-above-1.4c).

**A key factor is the anticipated shift toward El Niño conditions, with WMO guidance for mid-2026 indicating this change, and the “Global Seasonal Climate Update” for Apr–Jun 2026 noting that increased probability in the equatorial Pacific east of the Date Line reflects likely transition into a warm ENSO state [[^]](https://wmo.int/media/update/global-seasonal-climate-update-april-may-june-2026)[[^]](https://wmo.int/media/update/global-seasonal-climate-update-may-june-july-2026)[[^]](https://gulfnews.com/world/wmo-warns-strong-el-nino-likely-from-mid-2026-driving-global-heat-and-rainfall-shifts-1.500518657).** While Copernicus ERA5 bulletins show the year is already extremely warm in early 2026 (e.g., January 2026: 1.47°C above 1850–1900; March 2026: 1.48°C above 1850–1900), the outcome of the remaining months is what determines whether 2026 beats 2024 in annual ranking [[^]](https://climate.copernicus.eu/copernicus-fifth-warmest-january-sees-2026-start-weather-extremes-across-both-hemispheres)[[^]](https://climate.copernicus.eu/surface-air-temperature-march-2026)[[^]](https://jimehansen.substack.com/p/2026-on-track-for-warmest-year). Polymarket’s “Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?” lists the leading outcome as “2” (2nd hottest) at about **42%** implied **probability**, with the next closest outcome as “1” at about **24%**—suggesting the crowd more often expects 2026 to miss the #1 spot than to win it outright [[^]](https://www.polymarket.com/event/where-will-2026-rank-among-the-hottest-years-on-record). A related Polymarket **market** (“Will any month of 2026 be the hottest on record?”) shows very high current odds for ‘Yes’ (around mid-**70%** implied **probability**), consistent with expectations of strong second-half warmth but not the same as winning ‘hottest year’ overall [[^]](https://polymarket.com/event/will-any-month-of-2026-be-the-hottest-on-record)[[^]](https://base.polymarket.com/event/will-any-month-of-2026-be-the-hottest-on-record).

## Key Dates & Catalysts

- **Expiration:** April 01, 2027
- **Closes:** January 01, 2027

## Decision-Flipping Events

- Forecasts for 2026's global temperature ranking vary.
- Hansen claims 2026 will be the warmest year in the instrumental record, estimating a margin wide enough to break the 2024 record, though this depends on many remaining months being substantially warmer [^] .
- Carbon Brief forecasts 2026 as the second-warmest year on record, with a **19%** chance to surpass 2024 as the warmest year, and says a strong El Niño later in 2026 would raise the chance that 2027 is hottest instead [^] .
- The Met Office’s 2026 outlook indicates a central global average temperature of 1.46°C above pre-industrial levels, with a forecast range of 1.34°C–1.58°C; the Met Office says 2026 is likely to be one of the four warmest years and that 2024’s 1.55°C remains the current warmest-year reference [^] .

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## Historical Resolutions

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