# Octagon AI

> AI-powered market intelligence platform that seamlessly integrates public and private market intelligence in a single API.

Octagon AI provides real-time data on public equities, private market deals, company fundamentals, filings, investor networks, and prediction market research. This site features continuously updated research reports on Kalshi prediction markets with cited sources and probability analysis.

Key features:
- Research reports on Kalshi prediction market events
- Model probability vs market price comparisons
- Cited sources with automatic updates
- API and MCP access for programmatic use

## Docs

- [Markets Index](/markets/): Browse all prediction market categories and reports
- [API Documentation](https://docs.octagonai.co/): Octagon API reference
- [MCP Server](https://docs.octagonai.co/guide/mcp-server.html): Model Context Protocol integration

## Categories

- [Companies](/markets/companies/)
- [Crypto](/markets/crypto/)
- [Economics](/markets/economics/)
- [Financials](/markets/financials/)
- [Mentions](/markets/mentions/)
- [Science and Technology](/markets/science-and-technology/)

## Reports

- [When will Bitcoin hit $150k?](/markets/crypto/btc/when-will-bitcoin-hit-150k.md) (50%): Octagon's 26.9% probability is below 50c market price, amid 2025 institutional ETF rebalancing and LTH distribution.
- [Fed funds rate after Mar 2026 meeting?](/markets/economics/fed/fed-funds-rate-after-mar-2026-meeting.md) (2%): Model and market align at 2.0% for this unlikely Fed rate outcome, offering a 50x payout multiple.
- [Unemployment in January 2026?](/markets/economics/employment/unemployment-in-january-2026.md) (71%): Model sees 89% probability for January 2026 unemployment, a +18pp gap from the 71c market, implying a 1.4x payout.
- [Which nuclear power companies will achieve criticality before Aug 2026?](/markets/science-and-technology/which-nuclear-power-companies-will-achieve-criticality-before-aug-2026.md) (67%): Octagon's 93.8% model probability contrasts with grounded near-zero chance, implying 1.5x payout at 67c.
- [Coinbase trading volume in Q4?](/markets/companies/kpis/coinbase-trading-volume-in-q4.md) (20.5%): Market and model align at 20.5% (0.0pp gap), as official Q4 client trading volume data is not yet public.
- [Will a major meteor strike hit Earth before 2030?](/markets/science-and-technology/will-a-major-meteor-strike-hit-earth-before-2030.md) (56%): Model's 14.7% is 41.3pp below the 56c market (1.8x payout), as CTBTO effectively monitors 10-kiloton airbursts.
- [When will OpenAI achieve AGI?](/markets/science-and-technology/when-will-openai-achieve-agi.md) (24.5%): Model's 0.7% probability is 23.8 points below 24.5c market, suggesting overvaluation due to AGI governance and custom chip risks.
- [Jamie Dimon leaves JPMorgan Chase?](/markets/companies/ceos/jamie-dimon-leaves-jpmorgan-chase.md) (5%): Model's 0% probability contradicts market's 5c price, suggesting a 20x payout multiple with mid-to-late 2026 succession expected.
- [Costco raises hot dog combo price?](/markets/economics/inflation/costco-raises-hot-dog-combo-price.md) (11.5%): Model sees 0% probability versus 12c market price, implying a -11.5% gap given Costco's steadfast commitment.
- [What will EA say during their next earnings call?](/markets/mentions/what-will-ea-say-during-their-next-earnings-call.md) (1.5%): Model's 0.1% is 1.4 points below market (1.5%), suggesting 66.7x payout given strict merger communication constraints.
- [When will Tim Cook leave Apple?](/markets/companies/ceos/when-will-tim-cook-leave-apple.md) (37.5%): Model and market align at 37.5% probability, despite Cook's 2025 RSU vesting and 2026 AI plans.
- [When will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?](/markets/science-and-technology/when-will-the-next-millennium-prize-be-awarded.md) (11.5%): Market aligns with model at 11.5% (0.0pp gap), reflecting no recent solutions or GCT progress.
- [When will Dogecoin hit $1?](/markets/crypto/dogecoin/when-will-dogecoin-hit-1.md) (4.5%): Model and market probabilities align at 4.5%, with a 0.0% gap, offering a 22.2x payout.
- [US GDP growth in Q4 2025?](/markets/economics/growth/us-gdp-growth-in-q4-2025.md) (45.5%): Model and market align at 45.5%, with Q4 2025 GDP signals mixed and final data pending.
- [Bitcoin price range on Feb 5, 2026 at 11am EST?](/markets/crypto/bitcoin-price-range-on-feb-5-2026-at-11am-est.md) (55.5%): At 55c, market prices higher than the 33.7% model estimate by 21.8 points, suggesting overvaluation.
- [Bitcoin price on Feb 5, 2026 at 11am EST?](/markets/crypto/bitcoin-price-on-feb-5-2026-at-11am-est.md) (8%): Model sees 0% probability vs 8c market, implying 12.5x payout if correct.
- [Bitcoin price on Feb 5, 2026 at 5pm EST?](/markets/crypto/bitcoin-price-on-feb-5-2026-at-5pm-est.md) (14.5%): Model and market align at 14.5% amidst outflows and capitulation, offering a 6.9x payout multiple.
- [Ethereum price on Feb 5, 2026 at 5pm EST?](/markets/crypto/ethereum-price-on-feb-5-2026-at-5pm-est.md) (5%): Market's 5c against a 0% model implies a 20x payout, contrasting bearish liquidations and backwardation signals.
- [Unemployment rate in Jan 2026?](/markets/economics/unemployment-rate-in-jan-2026.md) (35.5%): Model estimates 32.4% vs 36c market price, implying a 2.8x payout multiple if correct amidst data complexities.
- [Jobs numbers in Jan 2026?](/markets/economics/employment/jobs-numbers-in-jan-2026.md) (30.5%): Model and market are aligned at 30.5% (0.0pp gap), offering a 3.3x payout.
- [Ethereum price on Feb 6, 2026 at 5pm EST?](/markets/crypto/ethereum-price-on-feb-6-2026-at-5pm-est.md) (1.5%): Model and market probabilities align at 1.5% (2c) for ETH, with options Max Pain at $2,550.
- [What will Trump say during the State of the Union?](/markets/mentions/what-will-trump-say-during-the-state-of-the-union.md) (37.5%): Market 38c is 37.3pp above 0.2% model, suggesting overvaluation given research favoring a controlled SOTU.
- [How  low  will Bitcoin get in February?](/markets/crypto/btc/how-low-will-bitcoin-get-in-february.md) (84.5%): Model's 0.9% probability implies an unfavorable payout at 84.5% market price, a -83.6pp gap amid ETF outflows.
- [How high will Ethereum get in February?](/markets/crypto/eth/how-high-will-ethereum-get-in-february.md) (33.5%): Model and market probabilities are aligned at 33.5%, offering a 3.0x payout multiple if correct.
- [More tech layoffs in 2025 than in 2024?](/markets/economics/more-tech-layoffs-in-2025-than-in-2024.md) (99%): Model and market are aligned at 99% (0.0% gap), reflecting strong consensus for more layoffs.
- [What will Trump say in February?](/markets/mentions/what-will-trump-say-in-february.md) (99.5%): Zero probability gap means the 100c market aligns with the 99.5% model, reflecting Trump's focus on official actions.
- [Who will Trump mention during his State of the Union address?](/markets/mentions/who-will-trump-mention-during-his-state-of-the-union-address.md) (63.5%): Market and model align at 63.5% (0.0pp gap), but Trump's SOTU delivery likely renders the market void.
- [Fed decision in Mar 2026?](/markets/economics/fed/fed-decision-in-mar-2026.md) (9%): Model estimates 9.4% for a >25bps hike versus the 9c market, suggesting slight undervaluation.
- [How much government spending will Trump cut in 2025?](/markets/economics/how-much-government-spending-will-trump-cut-in-2025.md) (3.5%): Model and market align at 3.5% (4c), reflecting political hurdles and FY2026 cut focus, offering a 28.6x payout.
- [How much solar capacity will be installed in the US in 2025?](/markets/economics/how-much-solar-capacity-will-be-installed-in-the-us-in-2025.md) (27%): Model and market align at 27% (3.7x payout), reflecting 8.2 GW projects failing 2025 commercial operation.
- [What nicknames will Trump say before April?](/markets/mentions/what-nicknames-will-trump-say-before-april.md) (63.5%): Model and market probabilities align perfectly at 63.5% (1.6x payout), reflecting current fair valuation.
- [How much will the government increase spending in 2025?](/markets/economics/how-much-will-the-government-increase-spending-in-2025.md) (25.5%): Model's 0.7% implies 25.5% market is 24.8pp overvalued (3.9x payout), aligning with CBO's outlay overestimation.
- [How much will US debt increase in 2025?](/markets/economics/how-much-will-us-debt-increase-in-2025.md) (4.5%): Model and market probabilities align at 4.5%, indicating no gap despite conflicting drivers for US debt.
- [Tesla deliveries in Q1 2026?](/markets/companies/tesla-deliveries-in-q1-2026.md) (40.5%): Model's 0.2% is 40.3pp below market, implying 2.5x payout; Cybertruck production is linear.
- [Which companies will be added to the S&P 500 in Q1 of 2026?](/markets/financials/s-p/which-companies-will-be-added-to-the-s-p-500-in-q1-of-2026.md) (52.5%): At 52c, market and model align at 52.5%, reflecting high potential for fast-track SpaceX/xAI inclusion.
- [When will xAI release Grok 4.2?](/markets/science-and-technology/when-will-xai-release-grok-4-2.md) (94.5%): Grok 4.2's 0.9% model probability versus 94.5% market price (93.6pt gap) suggests overvaluation given silent upgrades.
- [Fed decision in Apr 2026?](/markets/economics/fed/fed-decision-in-apr-2026.md) (77.5%): At 78c, the market is 0.4pp above the 77.1% model, suggesting a -$0.50 expected value given research indicates a likely hold.
- [SpaceX Starship 12th launch?](/markets/companies/spacex-starship-12th-launch.md) (57%): Model and market probabilities align at 57% (0.0pp gap) amid critical pending tests and FAA requirements.
- [Will Paramount acquire Warner Bros?](/markets/companies/will-paramount-acquire-warner-bros.md) (9.5%): Model's 0.2% makes market's 9.5% (10c) imply a 10.5x payout despite high acquisition hurdles.
- [Which AI company will have the best coding model at the end of 2026?](/markets/science-and-technology/which-ai-company-will-have-the-best-coding-model-at-the-end-of-2026.md) (55.5%): OpenAI's compute and enterprise leads suggest overvaluation at market's 56c versus model's 52.9%.
- [Which of these cryptocurrencies will have a positive return in 2026?](/markets/crypto/which-of-these-cryptocurrencies-will-have-a-positive-return-in-2026.md) (38%): Model's 0.6% probability is 37.4pp below the 38% market, contrasting with Dec 2026 options' downside skew.
- [Will a new interstellar visitor be confirmed before 2027?](/markets/science-and-technology/will-a-new-interstellar-visitor-be-confirmed-before-2027.md) (48%): Market and model align at 48c (2.1x payout), yet observatories face significant backlogs for confirmation before 2027.
- [Best AI at the end of 2026?](/markets/science-and-technology/best-ai-at-the-end-of-2026.md) (49.5%): At 50c, market prices Google 2.4pp higher than the 47.1% model estimate, despite OpenAI leading enterprise AI contracts.
- [Measles cases in 2026?](/markets/science-and-technology/diseases/measles-cases-in-2026.md) (87%): Octagon's 1% model probability suggests an 86pp gap to the 87c market, despite severe 2026 measles outbreaks.
- [Number of rate cuts in 2026?](/markets/economics/fed/number-of-rate-cuts-in-2026.md) (10.5%): Model's 13.7% probability vs 11c implies 9.5x payout, reflecting a more hawkish Fed and fewer cuts in 2026.
- [How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026?](/markets/companies/how-many-launches-will-spacex-have-in-2026.md) (63%): Model and market align at 63%, reflecting no increased scrubs for highly reused Falcon 9 boosters in 2026.
- [US grants license for new nuclear reactor before 2027?](/markets/science-and-technology/energy/us-grants-license-for-new-nuclear-reactor-before-2027.md) (39%): Model and market align at 39%, reflecting Natrium's final permit review and favorable NRC progress.
- [Tesla Optimus released this year?](/markets/companies/tesla-optimus-released-this-year.md) (26%): Model's 0.5% versus 26c market implies 25.5pp overvaluation, distinguishing actual from symbolic release.
- [Which countries will have a recession before 2027?](/markets/economics/growth/which-countries-will-have-a-recession-before-2027.md) (46.5%): Model's 0.3% probability implies a -46.2pp gap from 46.5% market, suggesting 2.2x payout if model is correct.
- [S&P close price end of 2026?](/markets/financials/s-p/s-p-close-price-end-of-2026.md) (11%): At 11c, market prices higher than the 9.2% model estimate, suggesting overvaluation amid mega-cap underperformance concerns.
- [Nasdaq-100 close price end of 2026?](/markets/financials/nasdaq/nasdaq-100-close-price-end-of-2026.md) (26%): Model's 23.4% probability for Nasdaq-100 below 19,000 is 2.6 points below market's 26c (3.8x payout), reflecting AI tailwinds.
- [Will the S&P finish positive this year?](/markets/financials/s-p/will-the-s-p-finish-positive-this-year.md) (64%): Market prices S&P positive at 64% (63.6% gap from model's 0.4%), amid extreme tech sector bearishness.
- [How high will Bitcoin get in 2026?](/markets/crypto/btc/how-high-will-bitcoin-get-in-2026.md) (8.5%): Model and market probabilities align at 8.5% (8c) for an 11.8x payout, noting a slight bullish options bias.
- [NASA lands on the moon?](/markets/science-and-technology/space/nasa-lands-on-the-moon.md) (6.5%): Model estimates 0% probability versus 6.5c market price, implying a 15.4x payout multiple given aggressive timelines and pending HLS demos.
- [Will Bitcoin be above $200k by 2027?](/markets/crypto/btc/will-bitcoin-be-above-200k-by-2027.md) (8.5%): Octagon's 6.1% model is 2.4 points below the 8c market, implying 11.8x payout, due to weak demand and macro headwinds.
- [Will Bitcoin be above $250k by 2027?](/markets/crypto/btc/will-bitcoin-be-above-250k-by-2027.md) (5.5%): Model's 0.3% probability, far below market's 5.5% (6c), suggests an 18.2x payout if accurate, due to inflow challenges.
- [When will Bitcoin cross $100k again?](/markets/crypto/btc/when-will-bitcoin-cross-100k-again.md) (5.5%): Model sees 0% probability vs 6c market price (5.5%), suggesting an 18.2x payout multiple given STH overhead resistance.
- [How low will Bitcoin get in 2026?](/markets/crypto/btc/how-low-will-bitcoin-get-in-2026.md) (75%): A 74% probability gap (1% model vs. 75c market) suggests valuation compression limits Bitcoin's downside.
- [How high will Ethereum get in 2026?](/markets/crypto/eth/how-high-will-ethereum-get-in-2026.md) (10.5%): Model's 0.5% probability sharply contrasts bullish research, remaining 10pp below the 11c market price.
- [How low will Ethereum get in 2026?](/markets/crypto/eth/how-low-will-ethereum-get-in-2026.md) (95%): Model and market probabilities align at 95% amidst significant downside risks between $2,170-$2,500.
- [How high will the S&P get this year?](/markets/financials/s-p/how-high-will-the-s-p-get-this-year.md) (76.5%): Model's 0.5% probability contrasts 76.5% market price, implying a 76pp gap and overvaluation given bearish S&P signals.
- [How low will the S&P get this year?](/markets/financials/s-p/how-low-will-the-s-p-get-this-year.md) (33.5%): Market's 33.5% price significantly exceeds the 0.8% model (-32.7pp gap), reflecting pronounced bearish put option sentiment.
- [Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin by 2027?](/markets/crypto/will-satoshi-move-any-bitcoin-by-2027.md) (9.5%): Model and market are aligned at 9.5%, reflecting no quantum threat or court-ordered movement by 2027.
- [Netflix price increase in 2026?](/markets/financials/netflix-price-increase-in-2026.md) (81%): Market's 81c price is 80.1pp above Octagon's 0.9% estimate, suggesting substantial market overvaluation.
- [Who will be the next CEO of Disney?](/markets/companies/who-will-be-the-next-ceo-of-disney.md) (99.5%): Market prices D'Amaro as CEO at 99.5%, 0.7pp above the model's 98.8% estimate.
- [How high will Solana get in 2026?](/markets/crypto/sol/how-high-will-solana-get-in-2026.md) (28.5%): Market's 28.5% probability is 27.8 percentage points above the 0.7% model, likely due to expected ETF inflows.
- [Will Solana end 2026 over $500?](/markets/crypto/will-solana-end-2026-over-500.md) (5.5%): Market and model probabilities match at 5.5%, agreeing $500 demands immense capital and critical ecosystem milestones.
- [Price of Solana by end of 2026?](/markets/crypto/price-of-solana-by-end-of-2026.md) (25.5%): Model sees 0.7% vs 26c market price, implying -24.8pp gap and -$97.11 expected value, reinforced by persistent put demand.
- [Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist before 2027?](/markets/science-and-technology/trump/will-the-u-s-confirm-that-aliens-exist-before-2027.md) (14.5%): Model and market align at 14.5% (15c), offering a 6.9x payout multiple, amidst complex disclosure and unverified claims.
- [What will Logan Paul’s Pikachu Illustrator go for at auction?](/markets/financials/what-will-logan-paul-s-pikachu-illustrator-go-for-at-auction.md) (72.5%): The 72c market prices 71.5pp higher than the 1% model, suggesting overvaluation despite its rarity narrative.
- [Will Elon purchase Ryanair?](/markets/companies/trump/will-elon-purchase-ryanair.md) (10.5%): Market prices 10.5% (11c), implying a 9.5x payout at 0% model probability due to insurmountable EU regulatory hurdles.
- [Will the FDA approve any psychedelic substance for medical use before 2027?](/markets/science-and-technology/trump/will-the-fda-approve-any-psychedelic-substance-for-medical-use-before-2027.md) (31.5%): Model matches 31.5c market, with FDA committee uncertainty balancing strong COMP360 data and priority review.
- [Which Companies will officially announce an IPO before 2027?](/markets/companies/which-companies-will-officially-announce-an-ipo-before-2027.md) (86%): Market's 86% probability shows an 85pp gap from the 1% model, indicating negative expected value for buyers despite active IPO preparations.
- [Which bank will take Kraken public before 2027?](/markets/companies/which-bank-will-take-kraken-public-before-2027.md) (72.5%): 0.0% gap as model and market align at 72.5%, with Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Chase as primary IPO contenders.
- [Will the Fed do a rate cut greater than 25bps this year?](/markets/economics/fed/will-the-fed-do-a-rate-cut-greater-than-25bps-this-year.md) (23.5%): Market and model align at 23.5% (0.0% gap, 24c, 4.3x payout), reflecting the high bar for 2026 rate cuts.
- [Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?](/markets/companies/international/will-reza-pahlavi-lead-iran-in-2026.md) (14.5%): Model's 0.4% probability contrasts with the 14.5c market, implying a 6.9x payout multiple given active IRGC opposition.
- [How much will the Steam Machine cost?](/markets/companies/how-much-will-the-steam-machine-cost.md) (38.5%): Model and market probabilities align at 38.5%, despite significant delays and projected price increases.
- [How much will Tesla deliveries grow before 2027?](/markets/companies/how-much-will-tesla-deliveries-grow-before-2027.md) (22.5%): Model's 0.1% against 22c market price suggests 4.4x overvaluation, despite Giga Texas/Berlin production increases.
- [Which companies will the US take a stake in before 2027?](/markets/companies/trump/which-companies-will-the-us-take-a-stake-in-before-2027.md) (9%): Model and market align at 9%, pricing 11.1x payout on US government direct equity stakes in strategic industries.
- [Will the Fed have an emergency meeting in 2026?](/markets/economics/fed/will-the-fed-have-an-emergency-meeting-in-2026.md) (17%): With a 0.0pp gap, model and market align at 17%, reflecting the high bar for emergency meetings.
- [Which companies will have a top-ranked AI model this year?](/markets/science-and-technology/ai/which-companies-will-have-a-top-ranked-ai-model-this-year.md) (64.5%): Model and market probabilities align at 64.5%, with agentic and multimodal capabilities defining top models.
- [How high will unemployment get in 2026?](/markets/economics/employment/how-high-will-unemployment-get-in-2026.md) (31.5%): With no gap, the 32c market price (3.2x payout) and model both reflect significant labor market weakening.
- [How much government spending will Trump cut before 2027?](/markets/economics/how-much-government-spending-will-trump-cut-before-2027.md) (10%): Market's 10% probability (10c) contrasts Octagon's 0%, a 10x payout given experts predict a full-year FY27 Continuing Resolution.
- [Recession this year?](/markets/economics/growth/recession-this-year.md) (18.5%): Market's 18c price perfectly aligns with the 18.5% model probability, reflecting inflation, consumer strain, and credit tightening.
- [When will OpenAI officially announce an IPO?](/markets/economics/when-will-openai-officially-announce-an-ipo.md) (1.5%): Model and market align at 2c, expecting S-1 by Q3 2026 for late 2026/early 2027 IPO.
- [When will SpaceX officially announce an IPO?](/markets/economics/when-will-spacex-officially-announce-an-ipo.md) (33%): Model and market align at 33% probability (3.0x payout), balancing Starlink growth with Starship risks for IPO.
- [Who will successfully take over Warner Brothers?](/markets/companies/who-will-successfully-take-over-warner-brothers.md) (22.5%): At 22c, the market prices higher than the 18.5% model estimate, suggesting overvaluation due to financing risks.
- [Which bank will take SpaceX public?](/markets/companies/which-bank-will-take-spacex-public.md) (83%): Model and market align at 83% probability (0.0pp gap), reflecting Morgan Stanley's consistent lead in Musk's major deals.
- [Peak US National Debt Under Trump Administration](/markets/economics/peak-us-national-debt-under-trump-administration.md) (97.5%): At 98c, market overvalues 'peak under Trump' versus model's 1%, implying current/future debt surpasses Trump-era levels.
- [What will the average number of measles cases be during Trump's term?](/markets/science-and-technology/diseases/what-will-the-average-number-of-measles-cases-be-during-trump-s-term.md) (96.5%): Model's 1% probability suggests market's 96.5% is overvalued, potentially overlooking high R0 measles outbreaks and funding shortfalls.
- [Will there be a Trump economic boom?](/markets/economics/growth/will-there-be-a-trump-economic-boom.md) (63.5%): Model's 0.9% vs market's 63.5% (64c) shows -62.6% gap, citing reduced CapEx and declining real wages.
- [When will Elon Musk become a trillionaire?](/markets/economics/when-will-elon-musk-become-a-trillionaire.md) (78%): Market at 78c is 77 points above the 1% model, despite potential trillion-dollar valuations for Musk's assets.
- [How much government spending will Trump cut before his term ends?](/markets/economics/how-much-government-spending-will-trump-cut-before-his-term-ends.md) (22%): Model's 0.4% probability, contrasting with 22c market, reflects past limited spending cut success, implying a 4.5x payout.
- [Who will be the world's first trillionaire?](/markets/economics/who-will-be-the-world-s-first-trillionaire.md) (85.5%): At 86c, the market prices higher than the 80.3% model estimate, suggesting overvaluation amidst impending regulatory scrutiny.
- [Which country will be the next to send humans to the Moon?](/markets/science-and-technology/which-country-will-be-the-next-to-send-humans-to-the-moon.md) (67.5%): Model's 0.6% probability implies -66.9pp gap versus market's 67.5% due to US budget and spacesuit delays.
- [China overtakes USA’s economy by 2030?](/markets/economics/growth/china-overtakes-usa-s-economy-by-2030.md) (20%): Market matches model at 20c (5.0x payout), reflecting forecasts of China unlikely to surpass USA by 2030.

## Optional

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